January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[WinterWxLuvr]

12z EURO at 240 shows an decent PAC but the Atlantic is bad. No sign of the previous -NAO. Without it the SE ridge doesn't budge in response.

 

Exactly why nobody should get excited or depressed over runs past a few days.  Just yesterday the Euro had a massive NAO, now, according to your post, none.

[Bob Chill]

To build on Bob's post that after day 10 or 11, the forecast on the GEFS ensemble mean isn't too bad. The pac ridge seems to be working east and there is a negative where the 50 50 low would be. Of course this is still in la la land but is the best la la land GEFS ens mean at 312hrs since we started the southeast ridge look that the extended has shown over the past week or so.

The mean map shown above looks to have room for a shortwave near the MS valley even though in the mean none is shown. However, if you look on the spaghetti diagram you can see there is one member that actually has a close low near AR. No I'm not forecasting a snowstorm yet just saying that this particular ensemble mean doesn't look as horrid as what we've seen and looks more like the one in which Winterluvr and Ji go some snow. Still it's way out in la la land so the mean could look different on the next run.

 

At the very least I like that the GFS (among other guidance) doesn't firmly plant the trough out west and hold it there. We saw that in Dec and what it can mean to sensible wx in the east. The simple fact that the trough makes a pretty steady march east is significant. My fear is that it keep getting delayed to the point that we get some sort of stale and moldy airmass by the time it gets here AND it proves transient but that really can't even be discussed at this point. 

 

I'm probably never going to pick a window in the LR again so I'm just going to sit back and watch the longwave features progress and only worry about shortwaves inside of a week. Easier on the nerves anyways. 

 

The NAO is going to become quite important within a weeks time. Weak or east based raises concern for a continuation of last months close but no cigar storm track. But there has been some hints at some  pretty high heights building in the NAO domain space. That's a positive no matter which way you shake it. Sure would help if the ridge out west behind the deep trough in the LR decides it wants to hang out for a week or so. THAT could indicate we are heading into a longer period of opportunity than just a few days. If it ends up being transient then we have to hope and pray for a one or maybe one-two and done setup. Persistence would favor the latter but a total WAG on my part.

[Bob Chill]

The euro could be right but digging the trough down into baha and then centering the lowest heights off the socal coast isn't the most believable progression. Sure it can happen but this is a big switch in a short period. I think a slower and less amplified version of the GFS is more likely. At least I hope so anyways. 

[Ji]

Tempted to erase all Model links and just see what happens

[MillzPirate]

everyone should just step away, enjoy the warm weather and reconvene in 10 days....... this back and forth is tiresome 

[QVectorman]

I'm not sure how relevant Albany is to here. We're not the upstate NY forum. Heck, our temps can be way different.

 

Ok I did it quickly for Harrisburg...circling the same points in red correlating to the time frames. Temp trends are the same no matter where you are for the dates... Detroit, Albany, Harrisburg etc. Temps still went from 31 on Jan 2 to 45 on the 6...+14 temp change. And today is cooler than yesterday...granted here I missed the magnitude of cool down for today but still. This forecast was posted 25 days ago. 

[Bob Chill]

I checked it out but the graphics need some work so I took a pass. 

 

Here's a screenshot:

 

 

 

[PhineasC]

Ok I did it quickly for Harrisburg...circling the same points in red correlating to the time frames. Temp trends are the same no matter where you are for the dates... Detroit, Albany, Harrisburg etc. Temps still went from 31 on Jan 2 to 45 on the 6...+14 temp change. And today is cooler than yesterday...granted here I missed the magnitude of cool down for today but still. This forecast was posted 25 days ago. 

midatlantic.jpg

 

Detroit, Albany, Harrisburg...

 

All primo Mid-Atlantic climo sites.

[Amped]

Not ready to give up on winter yet. Definetly have a chance after the 20th and it's a lot better than last winter. I'll cancel it by the 20th if models still look like crap.

[QVectorman]

Detroit, Albany, Harrisburg...

 

All primo Mid-Atlantic climo sites.

 

The long range threads are few and far between since the days of Eastern so the only threads that are active with red tags are this and the NE forum. Sorry I picked a site to verify 50 miles from your forum border. The larger obs sites within your forum are affected by the ocean so the effects are dampened a bit. I don't have time to do a forecast for everyone's back yard nor the time to verify the forecast for obs sites in your back yard. I assume most people in here have enough knowledge to look at the larger picture and see the patterns that were correctly forecasted over entire regions and appreciate the time people put into offering their knowledge. Obviously you do not, so maybe you should keep your thoughts to yourself. People complain that not enough red tags participate and some wonder why. People like you. If you have issues with a forecast from 25 days ago and nit picking because the verification site is 50 miles outside your area you will never be satisfied with any forecast so you should probably stop reading "mid-long range" threads. 

[WEATHER53]

sometimes I think people overthink the seasonal stuff for DC metro

 

Here are our top 15 snow seasons since 1950...this is not rocket science......

 

9 Ninos

3 Neutrals directly following NINO's

2 neutrals following neutrals that followed multi-year NINO's

1 weak nina following a NINO

 

The word Nina is mentioned ONE time (1995-96) which was a weak Nina following a SEVEN year warm event including a preceding Nino...the previous Nina was 1988-89.....

 

 

2009-10 - NINO

1995-96 - Weak Nina after NINO

2002-03 -NINO

1957-58 - NINO

1960-61 - Neutral after Neutral after 2 year NINO

1978-79 - Neutral after NINO

1966-67 - Neutral after NINO

1963-64 - NINO

1986-87 - NINO

1965-66 - NINO

1982-83 - NINO

1987-88 -NINO

1959-60 - Neutral after NINO

1977-78 - NINO

1981-82 - Neutral after Neutral after 3 year NINO

 

Here are some things you will NOT find on that list above

 

Moderate to Strong Ninas - ZERO

Neutrals following NINAS - ZERO

 

there isn't any reason to overthink these things too much in DC...our only hope was a NINO and most likely a moderate - strong event....once it became apparent that we were having a neutral or very weak Nino following a 2-year Nina it was a NO BRAINER that we werent getting a big snow winter....we arent getting a big snow winter...sorry...It isnt happening and the only way we are getting a KU is if we get the dummy end of a 40N special....we arent getting flushed with a KU....

And this is why analogs, which you skillfully employ, far trump seasonal index outlooks. Resting on the PNA, the EPO, the NAO and AO and MJO and on and on is simply far too many cooks in the kitchen.

[Deck Pic]

And this is why analogs, which you skillfully employ, far trump seasonal index outlooks. Resting on the PNA, the EPO, the NAO and AO and MJO and on and on is simply far too many cooks in the kitchen.

 

yes..I think for a DC specific forecast getting involved with too many indices creates a mess...I am not as sure about other locations...I do think other indices help round out an outlook and some are quite important as well....I think the conventional wisdom that neutral ENSO is not as much of a player is in error....

[HM]

And this is why analogs, which you skillfully employ, far trump seasonal index outlooks. Resting on the PNA, the EPO, the NAO and AO and MJO and on and on is simply far too many cooks in the kitchen.

 

No. This is why the forecaster needs to accurately portray his/her thoughts using the tools at hand clearly. Even during the times of -AO and +PNA, the DC area was properly warned of the issues with the pattern during December.

 

Teleconnections are a quick way to communicate the pattern to other weather intelligent people. They are weather patterns and describe weather patterns... just like analog usage.

[QVectorman]

No. This is why the forecaster needs to accurately portray his/her thoughts using the tools at hand clearly. Even during the times of -AO and +PNA, the DC area was properly warned of the issues with the pattern during December.

 

Teleconnections are a quick way to communicate the pattern to other weather intelligent people. They are weather patterns and describe weather patterns... just like analog usage.

 

Thank you. It appears these guys want someone to hold their hand and give them a play by play forecast for the thermometer on their patio. 

[Deck Pic]

Thank you. It appears these guys want someone to hold their hand and give them a play by play forecast for the thermometer on their patio. 

 

not sure where you live, but we functioned quite fine here before you showed up with your backpatting

[WinterWxLuvr]

Thank you. It appears these guys want someone to hold their hand and give them a play by play forecast for the thermometer on their patio.

I don't recall anyone here doing anything like that.

[Deck Pic]

No. This is why the forecaster needs to accurately portray his/her thoughts using the tools at hand clearly. Even during the times of -AO and +PNA, the DC area was properly warned of the issues with the pattern during December.

 

Teleconnections are a quick way to communicate the pattern to other weather intelligent people. They are weather patterns and describe weather patterns... just like analog usage.

 

after Dec 2010 and this december, I think we have started to realize that a naked -NAO, even a western based one, is not powerful enough so early in the season at this latitude...

[QVectorman]

not sure where you live, but we functioned quite fine here before you showed up with your backpatting

 

I'm not here to step on any toes. Again, this is one of only two active LR threads. I posted my forecast and offered a follow up as Don S. does. Wes said he didn't think Albany was representative of the MidA so I obliged and posted a second obs site to verify. I know Phin likes to do drive by's. I was just trying to get a forecast out to generate good discuss and hear others ideas such as those going on in the NE forum. I wasn't here to back pat either sorry if that is the way it came across. Again just trying to get some feed back on what others think about GWO signals strat. signals etc. MJO since LR experts are spread out between all the sub forums. 

[QVectorman]

I don't recall anyone here doing anything like that.

 

it was more in ref. to Phin. and I inadvertently lumped Ian into it. But from HM's post...it seemed Team Johnson fell into that category too. 

[WEATHER53]

not sure where you live, but we functioned quite fine here before you showed up with your backpatting

 

You got it.  Some of these guys are like doctors writing prescriptions, They seek for their message to be clouded in language (or in this case methodology) that is moslty understandable and applicable to them alone.

 

Over and over again we get that "it's just a tool".  Tool for what?-incongruity.

Put it simple and decades of observation confirm it.  Get some strong high pressure over of within 1-200 miles of Mongolia and that is the cold air mass, for whatever reason, that has a high propensity to end up over the mid atlantic.  Show me that, I can get excited. Show me how a+b+c+d=e is going to happen in 10-15 days and if all of it does happen then we can get cold then I am unexicted and there is a good reason for that-Analgos far trump indexes.

[HM]

Thank you. It appears these guys want someone to hold their hand and give them a play by play forecast for the thermometer on their patio. 

I don't know what you're talking about here.

 

after Dec 2010 and this december, I think we have started to realize that a naked -NAO, even a western based one, is not powerful enough so early in the season at this latitude...

Yeah. It was like shades of December 2001 all over again (a sad -NAO if you recall). More often than not, the Pacific cannot be trumped.

[HM]

You got it.  Some of these guys are like doctors writing prescriptions, They seek for their message to be clouded in language (or in this case methodology) that is moslty understandable and applicable to them alone.

 

Over and over again we get that "it's just a tool".  Tool for what?-incongruity.

Put it simple and decades of observation confirm it.  Get some strong high pressure over of within 1-200 miles of Mongolia and that is the cold air mass, for whatever reason, that has a high propensity to end up over the mid atlantic.  Show me that, I can get excited. Show me how a+b+c+d=e is going to happen in 10-15 days and if all of it does happen then we can get cold then I am unexicted and there is a good reason for that-Analgos far trump indexes.

 

You know who I am and we've talked before. We go way back to wright-weather. A sure way to end a conversation is responding with a paranoid "you guys" when you just want to respond to me.

 

I'm not sure what your second paragraph means. All pattern forcings are based off what has happened in the past. Their correlations are based off past weather data. Analogs and MJO composites are basically the same thing. Teleconnections are quick ways to describe a pattern. They won't do you any good beyond a week forecasting-wise.

[brad1551]

I am getting tired of looking in the long range and getting burned. What are we at now 700+ days without a 2"in snow event or more. I can say the long range doesn't look as bad as it did the other day but its the long range. Luckily we still have plenty of time to still get the ball rolling and I will try to stay positive as long as I can and hope everyone else can too.

[Huffwx]

_{RE: The backpatting on either side.}

 

_{It's foolish to JUST use analog forecasts OR simpley use indicies.  I'm pretty sure both sides saw the issues with the pattern starting around December 20th and it seems both sides agree that cold is coming, but the storm pattern indicates SOME potential issues.}

[Ian]

_{RE: The backpatting on either side.}

_{It's foolish to JUST use analog forecasts OR simpley use indicies. I'm pretty sure both sides saw the issues with the pattern starting around December 20th and it seems both sides agree that cold is coming, but the storm pattern indicates SOME potential issues.}

Most seasonal forecasting or stuff past ~D10 is still pretty hit or miss. People generally get really excited when they are "close" (open to interpretation) on seasonal levels ... which is probably fine given the skill without forecaster input etc., but one glaring problem with analogs is the small dataset. I mean, I think it's fair to assume that getting a blockbuster winter is harder/close to impossible in a certain scenario where you see instances of such in the record, but who's to say that's the final story? Another thing in the whole long-range stuff is that people who know the area they are forecasting do way better.. and that's highly attributable directly to climo IMO. Granted, if you're going to broadbrush the whole US or something, that level of 'skill' is unnecessary.. but Matt and some others know this area extremely well when it comes to snow, so they have an advantage to start.

Most winters aren't wall-to-wall warm. We tend to swing back and forth. In that sense, yeah.. it's probably going to get cold again before winter is over no matter how you look at it.

[gymengineer]

The problem for our area is that a below-average temperature regime for a week or two does not guarantee snow, yet that's what everyone wants. If you read the New England subforum, posters there are always excited by a turn to colder because as soon as they get into a colder pattern, storms will produce snow in many locations. Yet for us in late December, we ended up with a coastal plain/piedmont split for any appreciable winter weather.

 

Forecasters on this board have proven that there is some skill in teasing out a major pattern change at time frames beyond 10 days. But in our area, a pattern change itself is no longer exciting- What it takes for an area-wide substantial snowstorm requires more than an east coast trough.

 

Also, reading what the Richmond area folks have been saying for years now, something has definitely happened with their snow climatology that's substantial and decades-long. Without getting into a climate change debate, I do want to note that Richmond's decline might be significant for the DC area considering their metropolitan area is our neighbor to the south. 2009-2010 couldn't possibly have been less than average for even Richmond, but they way underperformed compared to our area. Is it getting harder to stay all snow in the lower Mid-Atlantic? If so, is that trend creeping north?  

 

 

 

 

[winterymix]

...................................................................................................................................................

...

 

Here are some things you will NOT find on that list above

 

Moderate to Strong Ninas - ZERO

Neutrals following NINAS - ZERO

 

there isn't any reason to overthink these things too much in DC...our only hope was a NINO and most likely a moderate - strong event....once it became apparent that we were having a neutral or very weak Nino following a 2-year Nina it was a NO BRAINER that we werent getting a big snow winter....we arent getting a big snow winter...sorry...It isnt happening and the only way we are getting a KU is if we get the dummy end of a 40N special....we arent getting flushed with a KU....

.........................................................................................................................................................

Bravo!   Magnificent work.

[Bob Chill]

Gym, I've been wondering about the area of open water in the n atl and the persistent blocking high keeping europe and Russia very cold in the winter. That in conjunction with anomalous lack of ice in the arctic in the fall.

Like you, I have no interest in a climate change debate but these features can't have zero impact on winter weather. When was our last real arctic outbreak? They no doubt fewer and far between on our side. And the low ice mins really took hold around 06.

I've read about the AMO but my interest isn't really about why the alt ice is sucking so bad. I'm more interested in how it affects nh circ on the winter. This feature isn't changing anytime soon and may keep getting worse.

[Huffwx]

Most seasonal forecasting or stuff past ~D10 is still pretty hit or miss. People generally get really excited when they are "close" (open to interpretation) on seasonal levels ... which is probably fine given the skill without forecaster input etc., but one glaring problem with analogs is the small dataset. I mean, I think it's fair to assume that getting a blockbuster winter is harder/close to impossible in a certain scenario where you see instances of such in the record, but who's to say that's the final story? Another thing in the whole long-range stuff is that people who know the area they are forecasting do way better.. and that's highly attributable directly to climo IMO. Granted, if you're going to broadbrush the whole US or something, that level of 'skill' is unnecessary.. but Matt and some others know this area extremely well when it comes to snow, so they have an advantage to start.

Most winters aren't wall-to-wall warm. We tend to swing back and forth. In that sense, yeah.. it's probably going to get cold again before winter is over no matter how you look at it.

 

Agree 100% about the local climate knowledge-- plays a huge role and the guys who reach far with regional or even national forecast lose their luster  as an event gets close because of the lack of local touch. I have as much faith in your and Matt as DC  forecasters than any one else. Even the local mets around me give me some street credibility because of my local climate knowledge. 

 

I think we are on the same page here-- analogs have use, but HUGE weaknesses, sample size being the most glaring. 

[Amped]

Give it another week or two. It's not last year. We don't have a la nina and NAO and AO have had some decent negative spats.

 

DC Can get there seasonal average in one or two storms, not that hard if the pattern turns good for a week in late January and again sometime in mid February. But if  in 10 days models are still hugging the SE ridge for another 10 days, it's time to find a new hobby.