Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hr 126 snows all through va dc and bwi 988mb well east of va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What i like about euro is its a wide shield of precip and a deepening low, i see in the UL why Wes is honking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hr 126 snows all through va dc and bwi 988mb well east of va. It's a solid 3" storm....glad to see it on the models consistently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's a solid 3" storm....glad to see it on the models consistently Exactly Matt, it seems to be a nice consensus, and any westward shift brings Wes' 8" analogs to possible fruition. I love my 2-4" chances, and enjoy the potential for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Exactly Matt, it seems to be a nice consensus, and any westward shift brings Wes' 8" analogs to possible fruition. I love my 2-4" chances, and enjoy the potential for more. It is 120 hrs away dude....chill..anything is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's a solid 3" storm....glad to see it on the models consistently I almost had 3 (2)today.. It's fun but not satisfying. 4-8 is so rare now . That's what I want system to give us. Hit me with climo stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well, at the very least the lame ass chill storm is going to park itself in a really nice spot for this event. I brushed through everything and the setup still looks just right for a moderate event (by our standards) followed by enough cold to keep it on the ground for a few days. I couldn't find any reason to doubt the storm yet. Possibly the first real sledding storm since Jan 2011. Even that storm was so wet that sledding was a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This one I will track knowing I have a shot. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It is 120 hrs away dude....chill..anything is possible Yep. The 00Z dec 25 euro and its ens mean still looks pretty good with the set and track of the approaching trough but the 06Z GEFS ense mean has shifted the maritimes block farther east and consequently has the low taking more of a Chill storm look on a number of its members. Plus the 06Z operational has DC pretty much right on the 850 zero line. We need the euro handling of the maritimes low over that of the 06 GEFS. That feature and how far south the approaching trough tracks are both big deals for this storm and still could make it a rainstorm rather than snow storm. That block actually looks a little stronger on the euro than yesterday but crummier on the GEFS ens mean. The 06Z gefs ens mean scared me as it is how we get screwed. Note how many bad looking members the 06Z has. all you can say about the event is a chance of rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yep. The 00Z dec 25 euro and its ens mean still looks pretty good with the set and track of the approaching trough but the 06Z GEFS ense mean has shifted the maritimes block farther east and consequently has the low taking more of a Chill storm look on a number of its members. Plus the 06Z operational has DC pretty much right on the 850 zero line. We need the euro handling of the maritimes low over that of the 06 GEFS. That feature and how far south the approaching trough tracks are both big deals for this storm and still could make it a rainstorm rather than snow storm. That block actually looks a little stronger on the euro than yesterday but crummier on the GEFS ens mean. The 06Z gefs ens mean scared me as it is how we get screwed. Note how many bad looking members the 06Z has. all you can say about the event is a chance of rain or snow. Get it together weenie, it's one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Get it together weenie, it's one run. True but the 06 GEFS is the way we usually lose storms. the block gives way too quickly and the low goes to ohio and then we deal with a reformation that is too late to help. The point of the post was to say there still is lots of uncertainty and the models are less certain about how to handle the block than on they seemed to be yesterday. The scarey thing about the GEFS is that on average the GFS and its ensembles are too suppressed with systems more often then they are too wrapped up. That doesn't mean the latter can't sometimes happen it does but it also argues not to get to hyped up on the event yet just because usedtobe sort of likes the look of the event. There is lots that can go wrong. We need to root for the Euro and its ens mean look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 True but the 06 GEFS is the way we usually lose storms. the block gives way too quickly and the low goes to ohio and then we deal with a reformation that is too late to help. The point of the post was to say there still is lots of uncertainty and the models are less certain about how to handle the block than on they seemed to be yesterday. The scarey thing about the GEFS is that on average the GFS and its ensembles are too suppressed with systems more often then they are too wrapped up. That doesn't mean the latter can't sometimes happen it does but it also argues not to get to hyped up on the event yet just because usedtobe sort of likes the look of the event. There is lots that can go wrong. We need to root for the Euro and its ens mean look. You know I was 100% joking..I actually agree with you. If we see the 12z follow up, then maybe I'll start taking note. But as long as we got the Euro/euro es mean on our side, I'm pretty happy. Now extrapolate the 84 hour NAM for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You know I was 100% joking..I actually agree with you. If we see the 12z follow up, then maybe I'll start taking note. But as long as we got the Euro/euro es mean on our side, I'm pretty happy. Now extrapolate the 84 hour NAM for this storm. It certainly would not take the low into the OH valley but might suppress it too much. Basically looks like it is where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 dang GFS looks warmish thru 87 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS says "don't forget, it's still a NINA" with it's northern stream dominance EDIT: same old miserable bs when it comes to getting decent snows during a NINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 the same gfs that 2 days ago drove the chill storm low straight north west of apps into Rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The 12Z GFS looks interesting tothe N&W of DC/Balto. for the 12/26/12/27 system. Someone south of M-D and east of I-81 could get 4" to 6". Regarding 12/30, the maritime blocking looks to slip east so that we get some froze at the beginning but it warms up for the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 the same gfs that 2 days ago drove the chill storm low straight north west of apps into Rochester the problem is overcoming the NINA climate which has the northern stream dominate as much as I want it to snow, I think accepting the fact that the atmosphere's "default" in a NINA to have the northern stream dominate is very hard to overcome with the relatively weak players on the field (i.e. no strong 50/50) means it is likely to dominate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The 12Z gfs kept the trend of the 06Z version. too much northern stream interaction and the block shifts too far eat. For the western guys, they might still do Ok, for DCA and points east the run isn't a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS says "don't forget, it's still a NINA" with it's northern stream dominance EDIT: same old miserable bs when it comes to getting decent snows during a NINA Didn't realize we were in a NINA. SSTs seem average and ENSO neutral conditions prevail. The GFS solution here is likely more a function of the blocking or positioning of the 500 low sliding too far east, Or its just the GFS doing what it typically does 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Didn't realize we were in a NINA. SSTs seem average and ENSO neutral conditions prevail. The GFS solution here is likely more a function of the blocking or positioning of the 500 low sliding too far east, Or its just the GFS doing what it typically does 4 days out. is it an official NINA? no, but look at current SSTA http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar atmosphere sure is acting like it's a NINA as for the 500 low, what's there to stop it? nothing, so it gets caught up in the general flow of west to east that may be a too simplistic explanation, but you get the point and the result's the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The 12Z gfs kept the trend of the 06Z version. too much northern stream interaction and the block shifts too far eat. For the western guys, they might still do Ok, for DCA and points east the run isn't a good one. Subtle differences, but I wasn't crazy about the 0z run either when I saw it. 12z is slightly north and warmer, but even last nights run was marginal for I-95 south and east. Luckily the GFS is like a blindfolded dart thrower lately 4+ days out, so l will ride the Euro for now. Either way its fragile given the set up, esp for the MA coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Holy crap the jan2-3 storm is back!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Holy crap the jan2-3 storm is back!! with a vengeance that's the time frame HM has liked for a while I think I'd be better riding his train and writing off everything before it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm just rooting for 1-2"..we can even perhaps get that with a western track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 At first glance, Saturday looks like a potential 3 - 6" event up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Subtle differences, but I wasn't crazy about the 0z run either when I saw it. 12z is slightly north and warmer, but even last nights run was marginal for I-95 south and east. Luckily the GFS is like a blindfolded dart thrower lately 4+ days out, so l will ride the Euro for now. Either way its fragile given the set up, esp for the MA coastal plain. So it's a typical MA winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 lol I should have added "mentally" after the word "off"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 with a vengeance that's the time frame HM has liked for a while I think I'd be better riding his train and writing off everything before it I'm not quite ready to write this storm off. Still plenty of time on model land and we have the Euro still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm not quite ready to write this storm off. Still plenty of time on model land and we have the Euro still. people are actually considering writing a storm off 4 days away because of 2 runs of the GFS that still give us a track that may produce a couple inches of snow?....WTF is wrong with this forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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