Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Some of you have forgot about storm mode it does not take much to be sitting this one out FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 3-5" for Most in the Detroit area. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 3-5" for Most in the Detroit area. It is what it is. You never know man. This is a sensitive storm, the track of that low will determine what we get. Oh Todays almost 3" was supposed to be just "flurries"....I'm here, the European model, don't worry. LOL hahha I'll take care of you all later on tonight..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm trying to figure out why so many of you are hinging on what the NAM, an outlier solution, is showing. The HPC as well as almost all of the forecast offices are going on a blend of the GFS and Euro with a little more weight on what the latter is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeahh, so far its been a downward trend but i wouldn't lose hope, maybe we can get a Christmas miracle tomorrow again if it phases more effectively this storm can be more robust as on the 0z Nam but the track is key and phasing. Then i would get concerned about the qpf but for not i agree. 3-6 inches seems reasonable. Its said that if the Euro and Nam both agree its often a hard model agreement to break. so lets see. Any word on the 0z GGEM yet? Havent gotten around to check yet. GGEM is a glancing blow. GFS like numbers, maybe less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm trying to figure out why so many of you are hinging on what the NAM, an outlier solution, is showing. The HPC as well as almost all of the forecast offices are going on a blend of the GFS and Euro with a little more weight on what the latter is showing The NAM and GFS had a nearly identical track. Just big differences in amount of precipitation. We are at a time where we have to at least take the NAM somewhat seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 HIRES for DTW shows 10"+. It seemed to do pretty well with the system last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Last storm the juicy models (NAM, RGEM, UKMET) won out, so it's not out of the question for those involved with this storm. As is, I would still take the middle ground, trending slightly toward the GFS. What's your idea on track? I still think LAF will get a good bout of snow. SE trend is probably going to stop at this run, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GGEM is a glancing blow. GFS like numbers, maybe less. Really? -_- That has ruined my Christmas spirit, i dont even feel the urge to open the gifts haha. But i'm more interested to see the 0z Euro but the 12z Runs tomorrow are more so our last hope of seeing, if anything decides to change. Maybe we can develop a NW trend or atleast a more developed band north of the low similar to what the Nam showed but the Nam has been known to overdo the qpf lol. Lets see wat happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The HPC as well as almost all of the forecast offices are going on a blend of the GFS and Euro with a little more weight on what the latter is showing HPC Day 1-3 QPF fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 One thing to note as Angrysummons mentioned is how early this phases... GFS had a partial phase at 36hrs while the NAM delayed that until 42hrs. If the NAM can phase a bit quicker I'd imagine that would help a lot of areas out... but if its a later phase then some members on the NW fringe are going to have a meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GGEM is a glancing blow. GFS like numbers, maybe less. My 2-4" call wasn't so bad I guess. ;-) Merry Christmas Canuck and to everyone on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Skilling's RPM map, although several hours old, looked good for many major metros in the region; Indy, Detroit, Cleveland and Evansville all between 12 and 17 inches. I would think that would be a decent sign, and his RPM model doesn't broadbrush like many maps, it seems to take banding/lake enhancement into account in the favored areas (near Detroit and Cleveland off of Lake Huron). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas everyone...I heard I am being nominated as a weather "weenie." I guess that is your present to me. I receive it with joy! Much love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Might as well throw this in here... IWX WRF amounts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Skilling's RPM map, although several hours old, looked good for many major metros in the region; Indy, Detroit, Cleveland and Evansville all between 12 and 17 inches. I would think that would be a decent sign, and his RPM model doesn't broadbrush like many maps, it seems to take banding/lake enhancement into account in the favored areas (near Detroit and Cleveland off of Lake Huron). I'm not sure what to think, but the folks around here are buying into the Euro/GFS solution, including the pros. But looking at the SREF, NAM, and now NAM4km, and the RPM you just mentioned, it's telling a different story. The pros must have a really good reason for ditching these models. Like I said, I'm torn. I can't pick any solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Might as well throw this in here... IWX WRF amounts: Please tell me that gradient on the east side has something to do with the map cutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Gotta wonder what the potential is for convective issues dragging the low pressure center too far east on the lower resoln. models. Seems the SREF has this LP more NW. The NAM 4k doesnt agree with the regular NAM, even. So it's a thought. Sure, it depends on how early it phases as well, but a question nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Gotta wonder what the potential is for convective issues dragging the low pressure center too far east on the lower resoln. models. Seems the SREF has this LP more NW. The NAM 4k doesnt agree with the regular NAM, even. So it's a thought. Sure, it depends on how early it phases as well, but a question nonetheless. I asked csnavywx that question earlier. He didn't seem to think its a factor in any of the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I asked csnavywx that question earlier. He didn't seem to think its a factor in any of the global models. Really gotta wonder why there's such a difference in the SREFs, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM has another 20+ in ottawa lol i might hang myself if this plays out back to back Its a good time to come up for a visit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Haven't been able to check much yet but it appears that the south shift on the models is backed up by current obs (check out the evening update from Dallas). For the LAF area folks, the trends are bleak but the one hope that I would have is that the sharp northern cutoff means that it wouldn't take a large shift in terms of mileage to drastically alter the outcome. That can be good or bad of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Please tell me that gradient on the east side has something to do with the map cutting off. I would certainly imagine so, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Congrats OH crew. Rest of us, enjoy your scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Might as well throw this in here... IWX WRF amounts: The WRF we run at Purdue is similar to this, maybe shifted southeast another 30-50 with the NW edge of the precip. It's been showing this for its last 3 runs (last 36 hours). It's initialized from the NAM, so it has the massive QPF too. I haven't been paying attention to it because it was such a outlier, but now it could have picked up on the SE trend early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM was an outlier north with the last storm in its useless range. Do yourselves a huge favor and never let that model get your hopes up to much and we wouldn't have 5 pages of deflated weenies. EURO with some GFS has been the way to go. delicate storm like the last one and they are no fun when you're on the edges.. Good luck all and have a Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Haven't been able to check much yet but it appears that the south shift on the models is backed up by current obs (check out the evening update from Dallas). For the LAF area folks, the trends are bleak but the one hope that I would have is that the sharp northern cutoff means that it wouldn't take a large shift in terms of mileage to drastically alter the outcome. That can be good or bad of course. I was thinking 4-6" for LAF this afternoon, but now I'm thinking more of a pessimistic 2-4". Wind will give me a good show out in the boonies. Still expecting lots of carnage on the highways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM was an outlier north with the last storm in its useless range. Do yourselves a huge favor and never let that model get your hopes up to much and we wouldn't have 5 pages of deflated weenies. EURO with some GFS has been the way to go. The nam has been consistently too high, but I think the gfs has been really really low up here for whatever reason. Dunno what to think tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Congrats OH crew. Rest of us, enjoy your scraps. img Yeah wow Detroit and Toronto now risk losing those bigger totals entirely if the trend persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just checked Buffey for Indy on Gfs...only around 5"...more to east and south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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