N. OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 5f mt wash hotel 830 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 This is a cold, nickel and dime type pattern for the Greens. I smell several D-3" events on the horizon...like this morning and again tomorrow morning: Overnight Mostly clear until midnight...then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers after midnight. Colder with lows around 2 below. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. Wednesday Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely with possible snow squalls likely in the morning...then partly sunny with a slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs around 10 above. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 0F this morning after dipping to -4 overnight. Coldest of the season so far. Light snow falling now too. Not often we see snow at zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Light snow in stowe..calm winds..moderate flake size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 This is a cold, nickel and dime type pattern for the Greens. I smell several D-3" events on the horizon...like this morning and again tomorrow morning:Overnight Mostly clear until midnight...then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers after midnight. Colder with lows around 2 below. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. Wednesday Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely with possible snow squalls likely in the morning...then partly sunny with a slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs around 10 above. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Yep---That's how it goes. A few clipper systems, a cold front here and there add up quickly. With the base that is down these 1-3/3-5 type events make for awesome skiing weather. The wave thursday night looks particularly tasty. I'd wager that's a 3-6 type event above 2500 feet. And 2013 is def. starting out cold. Minus teens for lows tonight...prob. not going to push past -20 though. Which personally is the limit of what I'll go outside in. below that eyes start to freeze up too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 0F is the low here this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Snowing nicely this morning once again on my last full day here. Unfortunately it is back to NC tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="eyewall" data-cid="1976990" data-time="1357132340"><p> Snowing nicely this morning once again on my last full day here. Unfortunately it is back to NC tomorrow.</p></blockquote> You have had an amazing trip with snow nearly every day. If it stops we may pay to bring you back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="eyewall" data-cid="1976990" data-time="1357132340"><p>Snowing nicely this morning once again on my last full day here. Unfortunately it is back to NC tomorrow.</p></blockquote> You have had an amazing trip with snow nearly every day. If it stops we may pay to bring you back! I am all for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.03” L.E. Snowfall was rather heavy at observation time this morning, but aside from the reduced visibility in that respect, driving was good because the cold snow had plenty of grip. It looks like a fairly active weather pattern for the next week or so in terms of snow/wintry precipitation; Roger Hill mentioned six potential events in his early morning broadcast: 1) today’s cold front and weak upper level disturbance, 2) a shortwave trough system on Thursday night into Friday, 3) potential LES blow over on Saturday, 4) another event on Sunday, 5) another on Tuesday, and then 6) there was mention of potential mixed precipitation with a warmer system at the end of next week. I see another potential small system for next Wednesday on the 6Z GFS as well, so that would make seven possible events. Some of the latter events are less certain of course, but in any case it looks pretty active so it gives us some shots at building the snowpack. Sometimes we can get those cold, dry periods in January, but this looks somewhat different than that. Thanks to that strong second half of December, as of December 31st we’re at 109.0% of average on snowfall at our location. It’s still snowing here in Burlington, and it looks like it’s winding down, but I should have some additional snowfall to report in my evening observations: Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 23.3 Snow Density: 4.3% H2O Temperature: 9.1 F Sky: Snow (2-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 13.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.03” L.E. Snowfall was rather heavy at observation time this morning, but aside from the reduced visibility in that respect, driving was good because the cold snow had plenty of grip. It looks like a fairly active weather pattern for the next week or so in terms of snow/wintry precipitation; Roger Hill mentioned six potential events in his early morning broadcast: 1) today’s cold front and weak upper level disturbance, 2) a shortwave trough system on Thursday night into Friday, 3) potential LES blow over on Saturday, 4) another event on Sunday, 5) another on Tuesday, and then 6) there was mention of potential mixed precipitation with a warmer system at the end of next week. I see another potential small system for next Wednesday on the 6Z GFS as well, so that would make seven possible events. Some of the latter events are less certain of course, but in any case it looks pretty active so it gives us some shots at building the snowpack. Sometimes we can get those cold, dry periods in January, but this looks somewhat different than that. Thanks to that strong second half of December, as of December 31st we’re at 109.0% of average on snowfall at our location. It’s still snowing here in Burlington, and it looks like it’s winding down, but I should have some additional snowfall to report in my evening observations: Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 23.3 Snow Density: 4.3% H2O Temperature: 9.1 F Sky: Snow (2-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 13.5 inches Unfortunately, he also mentioned a possible ugly looking warm-up at the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 We had about .25 new over night. I was out shoveling on part of the roof yesterday. There was more snow up there than I was expecting. I should go back to the vegetable garden (its fenced in and open) to see what we have for a base now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 partly cloudy skies in stowe..occasional light flurry..11 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Had 2F at 6:30 AM, as the wind stayed up all night. Some numbers for 2012: Mean temp - 43.19. That's 1.36 above my 14.6 yr avg, 4th mildest, 1.06 below 2010, also cooler than 1999 and 2006. No mildest or coldest months, though March was 0.64F below the 2010 record and Nov was 0.25F above 2002. Total precip was 50.36", lifting my avg to exactly 50.00"...Median is 50.16". 2012 had my driest Feb,July, and Nov. No wettest months, though April and Dec were each 2nd. Calendar year snowfall was 80.5", 7" below the avg. Largest storm was 9.3" last Dec 16-17. Coldest temp was -24 on 1/22. Warmest was 88 on 7/14. These are right on my avg/median annual low/high. Except for the mildness, it worked out to a pretty average year (thanks to 30" snow in Dec.) Edit: Also had 16 days with thunder, across 6 different months. Both numbers are right at the averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Total precip was 50.36", lifting my avg to exactly 50.00"...Median is 50.16". That's a lot of water. Definitely seems like yearly precip averages are on the rise, region-wide. I had over 50" for 2011 but not so for 2012. Quite a bit drier at 41.92" but with a fairly hefty 5.15" in December to get the bump up over 40". My average for the last ten years or so is over 52" however...which actually surprises the heck out of me... No wonder the woods are so wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Unfortunately, he also mentioned a possible ugly looking warm-up at the end of next week. Yeah, that’s why I put that system at the end of next week as mixed like he mentioned. The 6Z GFS even showed two similar types of systems following that one. Not that storms shown that far out are necessarily going to happen (12Z GFS is already different), but the thing is, we just had three of those types of systems in mid December (see events 10, 11, & 12 in my signature) and they were quite decent - we got more than 18 inches of snow out of them in the valley, and the mountains got clobbered. I think most folks (especially skiers looking for the highest quality conditions) would agree that 100% snow from every system would be preferred, but it’s NNE in mid January, there’s going to be some snow/frozen with just about any storm track that comes this way, especially for the mountains. There’s substantial snowpack down now - using my most recent analysis on December 24th plus some calculations with what has fallen since, I estimate we’re got roughly 2.5” of liquid on the ground, and that seems to fit in well with today’s NOHRSC snow water equivalent map (see map below). Most of Vermont outside the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys is in that 2-4” (darkest purple) range for snow water equivalent, so it’s not like we have to try to start the snowpack at this point, and what’s there should be able to take some warmth and/or liquid. One aspect of winter weather that I’ve come to realize more over the past several seasons is that getting every single storm to be 100% snow is the ideal, but it’s not really practical unless you’re up around 10,000 feet (or more) in elevation. Other than being at very high elevation, you have to always have the storms to the south or east, which at some point usually means being out of the storm track and somewhat dry. The two recent seasons that always come to mind for me as disparate examples are ‘07-‘08 (NNE often in the storm track, some mixed precipitation events, but a heck of a lot of snowfall, >200”) and ‘09-‘10 (storms were suppressed southward, low season snowfall, <130”). I think the benefits of being in the storm track outweigh any downsides, so I wouldn’t fret too much about the potential warm ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 That's a lot of water. Definitely seems like yearly precip averages are on the rise, region-wide. I had over 50" for 2011 but not so for 2012. Quite a bit drier at 41.92" but with a fairly hefty 5.15" in December to get the bump up over 40". My average for the last ten years or so is over 52" however...which actually surprises the heck out of me... No wonder the woods are so wet. And there's been a real change just since we moved here in mid-May of 1998, though sample size is tiny. Can't use the fractional 1998 (had 30.65" June-Dec; adding the avg Jan-May brings that to 48.23".) 1999-2004: Avg 42.90", most - 49.56" in 2000, least - 34.98" in 2001. 2005-2012: Avg 55.46", most - 66.67" in 2005, least - 50.16" in 2006. That's an increase of almost 30% between the two periods. That change is certainly bolstered by 2005, Maine's rainiest year. (CAR, PWM, Farmington and Acadia NP all had their wettest years on record, the last breaking the state record which Brunswick had held since 1845.) 2008 with 63.88" IMBY also adds to the bulge, and that year ranks #2 in Farmington's 120-yr records, with 2009 at #8. It's striking that every one of the past 8 yrs brought more rain than any of the first 6 (probably 1998 would also fit.) Edit: Farmington COOP has averaged about 2.5" more per year than MBY for 1999-2012, so it's not just my gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Sitting in jacuzzi outside n conway grand... Hair frozen solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Sitting in jacuzzi outside n conway grand... Hair frozen solid Nice, enjoying that January NNE weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I don’t have temperature data, but 2012 calendar year precipitation numbers for our location are as follows: 133.9” snow/50.32” liquid Liquid is coincidentally very close to tamarack’s 50.36” A also like to check on BTV to the west of the spine and MPV to the east of the spine, which came in with 35.94” and 35.13” of liquid respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Cold and clear...though we appear to be getting some diamond dust as it is snowing in the streetlights. There's a very fine like snow mist accumulating on the cars at Topnotch right now. Before the sun went downit looked like Mansfield was in it's snow cloud so maybe it's just stuff blowing down wind on the stiff NW breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 -1 f here at the house already, forecast is -16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 -1 f here at the house already, forecast is -16 -1 here too. Still a bit of a breeze so not sure how low it will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 0.5" this morning at 630am and added another 0.4" (which probably settled during the day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Re the warm-up at end of next week. Happens every January. Looking forward to it. Wonder what the low spot will be? Kslk? Somewhere in the NEK? I think the low number will be -19F...just not sure where it pops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Re the warm-up at end of next week. Happens every January. Looking forward to it. Wonder what the low spot will be? Kslk? Somewhere in the NEK? I think the low number will be -19F...just not sure where it pops. SLK already -10. Looks like most of the NEK up towards Pittsburg, NH is mostly -5 to -10 already too. Id be willing to bet someone hits -25 or lower, provided the wind cuts out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 5f mt wash hotel 830 Why are you never home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 10.2*, heading for our first sub-zero night of the season. Everything seems to be freezing up; noticed a decent amount of ice on the lower Saco this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Some great posts today folks. Especially cognitively inspiring and awesome was JSpins about storm track and not fretting. Completely agree although on a day to day basis tough to practice. I bow to your thoughts on this. Remind me in a week or so when we are gettin a cutter and the southwesterly is raging and we are all in pea soup and massive snowmelt fog! Anyway, skiing and snowpacks are resilient around these parts once we start-up. Keep the storm track coming this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Event totals: 3.2” Snow/0.12” L.E. The driveway definitely had a solid shot of new accumulation in it when I got home today, and I found 2.5” of additional snow on the snowboard. Temperature here was an even 0.0 F at observations time. Bolton reported another 5” this morning to add to the 5” from yesterday. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.5 inches New Liquid: 0.09 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 27.8 Snow Density: 3.6% H2O Temperature: 0.0 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: 15.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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