Snow Man Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Yeah his snow or no calls are ususually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Latest JB tweet "Northeast storm could be a doozy" hinting that it looks a heck of a lot like the January 2005 event that brought 13" of snow to NW Chesco.....not his forecast of course just sayin..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 JB's take on the latest runs (including the flatter EURO) "Unitl this comes over the rockies the problem is the feedback that is leading to part of the energy jumping out. THe ECMWF is like that now too. The JMA, like the UKMET is hanging back and doesnt like sending energy out....This has a long way to go. Can I see the flatter solution?? certainly. Do I believe it??? NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 JB "GFS starting comeback - paraphrase below The 12z run of the has a large area of .1 to .2 with sub -12C at 5k and that is a recipe for a high ratio storm.....showing you why you just dont quit on something 4 days away. He agrees that chances are it will not get back to the .5 to 1 inch beast it had before, but clippers like this love to drop a 100 mile wide band of 4-8 inch powder with lesser amounts north of the band, and true 10 or 15 to 1 ratios to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 DT's first of 100 guesses. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stg.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 DT's first of 100 guesses. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stg.jpg He's probably too snowy over NC...I think there will be a narrow corridor in WRN VA that sees a few inches but otherwise the mid-level WAA is just too strong down there that I think RDU/GSO go to sleet quickly and RIC may be too far north to see the higher QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 More from JB.....also likes snow Sunday into Monday... "The storm Thursday night into Saturday morning looks like it will have alot of .1 to .25 but the air is so cold that the rations will be high and the coastal front, this time in the mid atlantic states, may be a focus of higher amounts of water. The danger in this is that the high ratios can take off on you, and last minute input from the lakes, or the atlantic or even the Chesapeake or Delaware bay can jack amounts up. Its very interesting cause minus 12 air and a light onshore flow can lead to some interesting things. Perhaps we will get a warm up tonight with the clipper. I already covered alot of this in the midday post." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Latest JB tweet "Northeast storm could be a doozy" hinting that it looks a heck of a lot like the January 2005 event that brought 13" of snow to NW Chesco.....not his forecast of course just sayin.....BUST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 BUST Just add it to the collection.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Just add it to the collection.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Latest from JB on upcoming "event" "As for the snow coming we have a large 1-2 inch event with up to 5 near the -8 ISOTHERM. Colder than that, its suprisingly close to 10 to 1 since its like sand. There are growth rate maximum for crystals at -8 and near -3... minus three is a great place cause its closer to higher water content. I like the ECMWF precip amounts best" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Of course to be fair he it was never his forecast so no bust..... BUST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Of course to be fair he it was never his forecast so no bust..... He analogued '05...it's a check swing foul instead of a full blown whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 From JB this AM "The clipper coming down is a large 1-3 inch, 20-30 to 1 event and a like an inch- had reports of 5 inches last night on a couple of spots on the Delmarva so .15 can pop that out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Latest JB tweet "Northeast storm could be a doozy" hinting that it looks a heck of a lot like the January 2005 event that brought 13" of snow to NW Chesco.....not his forecast of course just sayin..... How did that work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 JB's take on the latest runs (including the flatter EURO) "Unitl this comes over the rockies the problem is the feedback that is leading to part of the energy jumping out. THe ECMWF is like that now too. The JMA, like the UKMET is hanging back and doesnt like sending energy out....This has a long way to go. Can I see the flatter solution?? certainly. Do I believe it??? NO How did that work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 How did that work out? 'bout as well as RG3's knee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 I totally approve of Ji bump trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 great read: http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-january-26-2013-at-7-30-p-m-ct-part-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 great read: http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-january-26-2013-at-7-30-p-m-ct-part-2 ..got goose bumps reading that ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Latest JB post "No one survives untouched in the pattern. The key to the entire winter snowfall forecast will be day 15-30. I believe that ridge migrates, like what set us up for Jan , up to Hudson bay. The normal Feb deviation means that instead of having the corrirdor of snow from that pattern over the Ohio valley into the interior NE, it will be further south. You are starting to see that now. How many systems in a row have had snow over Va now ( admittedly relatively minor, which is even more unusual since usually it take bigger precip events to snow south of the Mason Dixon line)" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Latest JB post "No one survives untouched in the pattern. The key to the entire winter snowfall forecast will be day 15-30. I believe that ridge migrates, like what set us up for Jan , up to Hudson bay. The normal Feb deviation means that instead of having the corrirdor of snow from that pattern over the Ohio valley into the interior NE, it will be further south. You are starting to see that now. How many systems in a row have had snow over Va now ( admittedly relatively minor, which is even more unusual since usually it take bigger precip events to snow south of the Mason Dixon line)" Using clipper events that travel from northwest to southeast to justify a better track for storms that travel from southwest to northeast? Not a very good way of justifying his thoughts, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Some additional JB paraphrased thoughts from the WB JB likes the ECMWF ensembles and the MJO phase forecast as a good blend of where he sees this heading. He sees this as a heck of a way to run a warmup with an ice and snow starter. He sees the warm up will obviously come and go quickly and the fight will change to can clippers bring snow and how much southern energy can break through as we head into the other phases. Also mentions the GFS is seeing a slowing of the MJO ....interesting because what could happen is the GFS is seeing what may happen later.. in a later phase, which perhaps would delay a bit the onset of the spring snapback... When its over next time, then its over for good in his opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: Winter over????Not if KMA is right as its blocking pattern Feb 11-March 10 very similar to Snowmeggedon month of Feb 10 http://t.co/oVjR3a16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: Winter over????Not if KMA is right as its blocking pattern Feb 11-March 10 very similar to Snowmeggedon month of Feb 10 http://t.co/oVjR3a16 Kind of scraping the bottom of the barrel quoting the KMA?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Kind of scraping the bottom of the barrel quoting the KMA?? What till he quotes the North Korean MA, that is extremely accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: Winter over????Not if KMA is right as its blocking pattern Feb 11-March 10 very similar to Snowmeggedon month of Feb 10 http://t.co/oVjR3a16 lol. You know it's bad when he has to turn to the kma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: Winter over????Not if KMA is right as its blocking pattern Feb 11-March 10 very similar to Snowmeggedon month of Feb 10 http://t.co/oVjR3a16 notice how he says "not if the KMA is right...." OK, so if the KMA is wrong then it is over, right? meh, he's just leaving himself an opening when things fall apart, just like the old JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I am biased....but Glenn and Sheena nailed the timing of highest winds in the area on the early evening broadcasts on NBC 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I am biased....but Glenn and Sheena nailed the timing of highest winds in the area on the early evening broadcasts on NBC 10 Biased because you think Glenn is awesome, or because Sheena is hot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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