Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,509
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

Vendor Forecast Discussion


am19psu

Recommended Posts

@BigJoeBastardi: Optimistic about holding arctic attack out of DC till after Inaug. No matter what my differences, I want the weather nice for our

POTUS

@BigJoeBastardi: Just hope POTUS pays attention to ALL that is going on Globally. 4th winter in a row severe cold develops in Europe. US gets it

next week

@BigJoeBastardi: 1 run after another showing the cold that is coming. I am sure when "coldmeggedon" gets to US we will hear more excuses http://t.co/J5LkiZTK

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

@BigJoeBastardi: Optimistic about holding arctic attack out of DC till after Inaug. No matter what my differences, I want the weather nice for our POTUS @BigJoeBastardi: Just hope POTUS pays attention to ALL that is going on Globally. 4th winter in a row severe cold develops in Europe. US gets it next week @BigJoeBastardi: 1 run after another showing the cold that is coming. I am sure when "coldmeggedon" gets to US we will hear more excuses http://t.co/J5LkiZTK

...appreciate the updates chesco..did notice jb as NOT updated his

'freebie' saturday outlook (weatherbell)..whats up with that ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A little JB paraphrase from today

 

In talking about the impending winter event tonight for areas N and W of the PHL and NYC - he says in looking at the total picture....this was not supposed to be around - folks were saying there is a winters over monster ridge. 

 

Here is what he sees for the next 6 weeks.  The trough hangs in the east and there is blocking. There is very little southern branch that originates from the tropical pacific -  instead like the current SE snow threat - a big item in a couple of days -  they will need to come out of the middle or northern branch. He assures that big storms can happen with that too.  Send one out in front with the proper phasing - or like late Jan '05 and have a super clipper dive in. In fact he sees the ECMWF trying to play that game. So overall he says we are not looking at snowmeggedon but coldmeggedon. This will be a classic flip rivaling 06-07

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@BigJoeBastardi: GFS run looks too cold day 11-15. Has NYC hitting 0 3 nights. I think lowest in next 15 days is 6. Its cold, but this isnt ice age

@BigJoeBastardi: Overall pattern should stay cold now, like 07, 2010 "flip" into and thru Feb. Good snuggling weather for Valentines day!

See I gotta heart

Link to comment
Share on other sites

None of the guidance supported that map. None!

 

If you totally bought the EC and discarded everything else (which Steve apparently did), then you might get a map like his.  However, it should've been obvious to anyone who checked what was actually happening that the EC was dead wrong right out of the gate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you totally bought the EC and discarded everything else (which Steve apparently did), then you might get a map like his. However, it should've been obvious to anyone who checked what was actually happening that the EC was dead wrong right out of the gate.

I have no idea who that dude is, but that map was awful.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@BigJoeBastardi: warning clients set upsimilar to feb 07,jan 77 as vortex locks over e NAMER feb 1-15 l 77,mid 4cst r 07 http://t.co/ucn8tqrw

@BigJoeBastardi: MJO going from phase 6 Winter protection to Phase 8 winter Affection with cold advection Great run up to Valentines Day for Snuggle bunnies

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some JB paraphrased thoughts from today on WB

 

His comment on the 12z run - If there is a double structured storm as is portrayed on the model the front runner is not likely to be able to cut into the cold air as much. He explains the reason is if the support dives to the south and causes the second storm, its warm advection that has to sustain the first storm....once the model figures out its darn cold and it can't lift that air as much -  precip breaks out. His worst case for some is that the first swath is north and the second might be south - but he sees it just as likely someone gets a double dose of snow. He goes on to say relax it is 6 days away and you should not be jumping to conclusions - The ensembles make it nothing because of the trough in front and chances are this will be WEAKER than the GFS has it and further south to boot

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was Steve D OKC WX or something to that effect in a previous lifetime?

This guy has been a pirate from day 5. I will need to dig back deep, but this idiot was once was forecasting for 12-24 inches for a storm that was all sleet. It may have been been back in the eastern days, but my point is that he sucks. Stick to the NWS or americanwx.He was OKCWX back in the days  wrightwx.

 

Kindest Regards,

 

Matt

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This guy has been a pirate from day 5. I will need to dig back deep, but this idiot was once was forecasting for 12-24 inches for a storm that was all sleet. It may have been been back in the eastern days, but my point is that he sucks. Stick to the NWS or americanwx.He was OKCWX back in the days  wrightwx.

 

Kindest Regards,

 

Matt

 

People pay for his forecasts lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JB has snow or no....no mixed precip with the Friday event ...I see Mt holly is mentioning mixed precip

" The upcoming 7 days are cold, and we have our snow threat which by and large I like on the HIRES I showed for the clipper and the GFS for the 2cnd storm ( positively tilited front runner gaining moisture as it comes east with all the precip in the warm adevetion mostly snow, and not much precip where it doesnt snow until the front arrives. Let me get this out of the way, okay cause I dont want to be get involved in all sorts of 50 mile here and there fights which is what is going to happen. This kind of storm will have the heaviest snow where it starts snowing at -8C and warm advects to -3C. I would trush the ensembles on that. As I said the GFS looks pretty good to me and as for 4 inch snows, this should be the further east south we have seen east of the mtns, but not in the midwest where its going to have trouble getting alot of liquid. for now, put me down with what I have on the video from the GFS"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JB has snow or no....no mixed precip with the Friday event ...I see Mt holly is mentioning mixed precip " The upcoming 7 days are cold, and we have our snow threat which by and large I like on the HIRES I showed for the clipper and the GFS for the 2cnd storm ( positively tilited front runner gaining moisture as it comes east with all the precip in the warm adevetion mostly snow, and not much precip where it doesnt snow until the front arrives. Let me get this out of the way, okay cause I dont want to be get involved in all sorts of 50 mile here and there fights which is what is going to happen. This kind of storm will have the heaviest snow where it starts snowing at -8C and warm advects to -3C. I would trush the ensembles on that. As I said the GFS looks pretty good to me and as for 4 inch snows, this should be the further east south we have seen east of the mtns, but not in the midwest where its going to have trouble getting alot of liquid. for now, put me down with what I have on the video from the GFS"

is it just me or does JB "speak in tongues"...

feel like i've had a few pops after reading him 

:drunk:  :beer:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...