A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Similar to origin, track, and potential strength as groundhog storm? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 18z NAM looks more in line with the 12z Euro or even a bit south of it bringing the wave across southern CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Similar to origin, track, and potential strength as groundhog storm? Kinda, maybe, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Potentially impressive severe weather look for the Deep South, aside from timing, the H5 jet looks significantly potent. Can't disagree with you, in addition, the mean 850mb winds from the ECMWF ensembles look pretty impressive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Don't see 50 kt H85 winds on a mean very often, particularly not in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 ECMWF mean is certainly a pretty good signal for a real deal storm. Hopefully the GFS members continue to slowly move that way to increase confidence...but it's looking pretty likely we'll see the second major storm of the season for the lakes/plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Looks like around the same location/a bit further south than the OP actually. def further south. Op run was centered just south of MDW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well someone may have jumped the gun. Never seen a metion of heavy snow this far out. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Blustery. Friday A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Blustery. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. http://forecast.weat...mkx&zmx=1&zmy=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I have optimism. I like mby and north/west Same here. Quad Cities to Milwaukee/Racine I like the best right now. I like that the west based block is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 MKE has been doing that for a while now...surprised they don't have amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 the juice is loose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I pray for a southeast trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I pray for a southeast trend... Whats wrong with 36 and Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I pray for a southeast trend... We both know that's futile. Best just to let them be surrogates for us, and hope for a rocking January. Sent from my Galaxy S III on Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I'm cautiously optimistic on this one. Could, and I stress could, be a biggie. Everything on the euro model lines up wonderfully just about for here. First storm hit areas North, now this one gets the middle region, next one should get areas further South and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 We are looking at mid 30's for Thursday, and 30 degrees for Friday, snow in the forecast for both days. I would imagine that can change based on how this low progresses. It would be nice to have snow on the ground before Christmas, and it is forecase to be in the upper 20's to 30 through the 24th.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Looks colder and much weaker on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Looks colder and much weaker on this run. Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Looks colder and much weaker on this run. Thats the 12-13 0z run, you're looking at a 2 day old run somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 I pray for a southeast trend... Set low expectations...a little snow, a little wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Only one of the 18z GFS ensemble members doesn't have a storm around the GL region by 120 hrs, P005 goes ballistic lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 This thing is gonna hit a brick wall. Blocking doesnt look all that bad. For us I80 guys we want stronger blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I have confidence in the Euro, and the OP as well as the ensemble mean would be nice for the Quad Cities through S Wisconsin, but I'm not sold on that track. I get a bad feeling it will trend NW like many strong lows do over time. I would much rather be in Dubuque, Madison, or Sheboygan/Green Bay at this point, but obviously still in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I have confidence in the Euro, and the OP as well as the ensemble mean would be nice for the Quad Cities through S Wisconsin, but I'm not sold on that track. I get a bad feeling it will trend NW like many strong lows do over time. I would much rather be in Dubuque, Madison, or Sheboygan/Green Bay at this point, but obviously still in the mix. I have a lot of confidence in the EURO also. I think that west based box will limit a track any further west then the 12z GFS. If it does end up westerly, then I expected something like the GGEM where the energy transfers east with another low developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Wow, talk about an oops. Had a feeling it was too good to be true. Seems the NW progression is still happening. A trace snowfall would be nice in this neck of the woods no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I have confidence in the Euro, and the OP as well as the ensemble mean would be nice for the Quad Cities through S Wisconsin, but I'm not sold on that track. I get a bad feeling it will trend NW like many strong lows do over time. I would much rather be in Dubuque, Madison, or Sheboygan/Green Bay at this point, but obviously still in the mix. It can only track so far Northwest. As stated by others there is a very strong signal that there will be significant blocking across Canada. The storm isn't going to go headstrong into that blocking. Just because a system is strong doesn't mean it has to trend NW, that is a very common misconception around here. The bigger key is watching how deep into the SW this gets and where it ejects out of NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 It can only track so far Northwest. As stated by others there is a very strong signal that there will be significant blocking across Canada. The storm isn't going to go headstrong into that blocking. Just because a system is strong doesn't mean it has to trend NW, that is a very common misconception around here. The bigger key is watching how deep into the SW this gets and where it ejects out of NM. That's true, so would you think overall the Euro Ensemble track is more reasonable than the GFS Ensemble mean track? The Euro Ensembles take it from C Illinois probably into N Ohio, and the GFS Ensemble mean takes it almost directly into Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 A bit off topic, but I've never seen this site before. Short-range WRF ensemble forecast from the University of Illinois. Most only go out to 48hrs, but these could come in handy throughout the winter for the MW/GL... http://rt.atmos.uiuc.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 That's true, so would you think overall the Euro Ensemble track is more reasonable than the GFS Ensemble mean track? The Euro Ensembles take it from C Illinois probably into N Ohio, and the GFS Ensemble mean takes it almost directly into Milwaukee. I would ride the Euro over the GFS, The Euro also compromises with the GGEM and Ukie. Even early NAM trends are similar to Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 It can only track so far Northwest. As stated by others there is a very strong signal that there will be significant blocking across Canada. The storm isn't going to go headstrong into that blocking. Just because a system is strong doesn't mean it has to trend NW, that is a very common misconception around here. The bigger key is watching how deep into the SW this gets and where it ejects out of NM. Thank you. Kind of old when some every single time just assume that stronger means further northwest. Yes sometimes that is the case but not always. Look at the scenario/setup before thinking that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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