Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What we do know is that it's trending towards less snow....I know that angers some, but its reality. Could that reverse, sure...but I wouldn't bet on it. What we have in our favor is the snowpack from Tuesday/Wednesday event helping to provide some chill. That could make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What we have in our favor is the snowpack from Tuesday/Wednesday event helping to provide some chill. That could make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 First rule of fight club is that each shortwave gets its own thread. Second rule of fight club is that you don't question the first rule The third rule of fight club is have fun and try your best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What we do know is that it's trending towards less snow....I know that angers some, but its reality. Could that reverse, sure...but I wouldn't bet on it. It's never favored our quite yet and a trend one way or the other was almost 50/50. Both models sort of went towards the other which happens many times and was mentioned yesterday. However, it is still way, way too early to figure things out. We'll need to give this a good 2-3 days before even having an idea on the second and/or third wave. I'm still bearish for my area specifically, unless the first wave can drive a big cold push south. All in all, it's still darn early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What we do know is that it's trending towards less snow....I know that angers some, but its reality. Could that reverse, sure...but I wouldn't bet on it. That is a fair assessment for some, But probably won't set well with many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It's never favored our quite yet and a trend one way or the other was almost 50/50. Both models sort of went towards the other which happens many times and was mentioned yesterday. However, it is still way, way too early to figure things out. We'll need to give this a good 2-3 days before even having an idea on the second and/or third wave. I'm still bearish for my area specifically, unless the first wave can drive a big cold push south. All in all, it's still darn early. I still feel like the ORH hills may get a good storm...especially the northern ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Its so confusing, though...I see Will post that the EURO hit eastern areas hardest, then others say the coast gets screwed. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If I had my way there would be more threads like we had in the WWBB days. Consider this in the middle. We will also be experimenting with the front page of the site and we will be promoting bigger headline threads so there is a reason behind it too. And Kevin...I'll get your PMs the next time I'm on my PC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What we do know is that it's trending towards less snow....I know that angers some, but its reality. Could that reverse, sure...but I wouldn't bet on it. Still plenty of time to get more favorable model runs but I know what you mean. The dreaded "strung out mess" of a first wave where we get hours of meaningless drizzle mixed with wet flakes is what I'd like to avoid. Honestly i'd rather have nothing if that were the case. and I'd really like to avoid a scenario of a weak first system being followed by a stronger 2nd system that hugs the coast or moves over LI. In any case even w/o a lot of elevation i feel like I'm at least far enough NW to see some accumualting snows this week. I'll get more invested during tonight's model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Its so confusing, though...I see Will post that the EURO hit eastern areas hardest, then others say the coast gets screwed. What a mess. The storm that is within reasonable range keeps being downgraded by the models. The storms in near fantasyland are shuffling some. I could see the trailer being anything from an offshore developer to one that ends up flooding us with warm layers filled with candy cans puddles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Its so confusing, though...I see Will post that the EURO hit eastern areas hardest, then others say the coast gets screwed. What a mess. The immediate coast in SNE did not look to fair well @H85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Everyone is seeing different interpretations on the models and its natural for some folks to interpret colder and some warmer. All we know for sure now is that Sunday is a nice snowy day with an inch or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The storm that is within reasonable range keeps being downgraded by the models. The storms in near fantasyland are shuffling some. I could see the trailer being anything from an offshore developer to one that ends up flooding us with warm layers filled with candy cans puddles. Which is concerning because obviously we would like to see a stronger first system help entrench a colder air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Its so confusing, though...I see Will post that the EURO hit eastern areas hardest, then others say the coast gets screwed. What a mess. the euro bombs the 3rd low east of the cape and it actually wobbles a bit NW so eastern MA is under the gun on the western flank of the storm. the low levels are fairly mild to start but do cool and at face value it would be a wild few hours - but it's next wed PM. as you know, that's an eternity. the way i see it...there's decent agreement on two general things - there's going to be a LP somewhere along or off the eastern seaboard mid-week and the airmass will probably be marginal around SNE. consequently, there's even greater than usual uncertainty so the specifics are pointless. when we have a big polar air mass in place and the block that's modeled, we basically know all we need is the moisture. imo, in this case, it's not like that so it's fruitless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 the euro bombs the 3rd low east of the cape and it actually wobbles a bit NW so eastern MA is under the gun on the western flank of the storm. the low levels are fairly mild to start but do cool and at face value it would be a wild few hours - but it's next wed PM. as you know, that's an eternity. the way i see it...there's decent agreement on two general things - there's going to be a LP somewhere along or off the eastern seaboard mid-week and the airmass will probably be marginal around SNE. consequently, there's even greater than usual uncertainty so the specifics are pointless. when we have a big polar air mass in place and the block that's modeled, we basically know all we need is the moisture. imo, in this case, it's not like that so it's fruitless. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Everyone is seeing different interpretations on the models and its natural for some folks to interpret colder and some warmer. All we know for sure now is that Sunday is a nice snowy day with an inch or 2 meteorology...not modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Its so confusing, though...I see Will post that the EURO hit eastern areas hardest, then others say the coast gets screwed. What a mess. Ok well two things here and this is what I mentioned to Matt65. The euro op did come around and give ern areas a good whack. The euro ensemble was closer and a little warmer, but did turn it into a paste storm for your area and even here. You guys in interior NE MA certainly are more favorable then here and it seem like a track like that would be snowier than modeled for you. However like I said this morning, there looks to be a lot of spread with members near the Cape and way offshore. So sure the ensemble mean track was near the BM, a track where I need not to remind you what it means for your area....but an ensemble mean with spread doesn't tell you a whole much other than we have a ways to go....which is what we are trying to hammer home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Thanks. Ok well two things here and this is what I mentioned to Matt65. The euro op did come around and give ern areas a good whack. The euro ensemble was closer and a little warmer, but did turn it into a paste storm for your area and even here. You guys in interior NE MA certainly are more favorable then here and it seem like a track like that would be snowier than modeled for you. However like I said this morning, there looks to be a lot of spread with members near the Cape and way offshore. So sure the ensemble mean track was near the BM, a track where I need not to remind you what it means for your area....but an ensemble mean with spread doesn't tell you a whole much other than we have a ways to go....which is what we are trying to hammer home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Thanks. you're welcome. when i said fruitless, i meant talking about when/where/what etc on a day 7 chart. not that the storm would be fruitless because obviously someone could cash in. just to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Tbh I'm much more interested in the Sunday thru Tuesday events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The scenario the EURO is portraying sounds like a warmer Dec 1981. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Thanks. It's confusing when people are throwing random thoughts around with no basis so I don't blame you. The posts where people actually looked at models gets overlooked amid the weenie posts. If I were you, I see no reason to throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Also when people say "favor" on a storm 7 dys out, it's just a preliminary thought that doesn't mean much. I mean, the MA was favored a week out with PDII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It's confusing when people are throwing random thoughts around with no basis so I don't blame you. The posts where people actually looked at models gets overlooked amid the weenie posts. If I were you, I see no reason to throw in the towel. Best post of the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Ray if you wanted to take the ensembles verbatim, it's very close to all snow for you during the entire length. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Ray if you wanted to take the ensembles verbatim, it's very close to all snow for you during the entire length. But what about us? That's all I really care about. And if we have to split hairs? Me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Ray if you wanted to take the ensembles verbatim, it's very close to all snow for you during the entire length. speaking of Euro Ens, nice look to Christmas week, great setup for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 SREFs are definitely impressive with the cold push prior to this wave. However, a number of solutions are pretty amped to our west. There is definitely going to be a battle here. There is actually somewhat of an icing signal in the interior on SREFs after some front end snow when looking at what may happen beyond their endpoint. We'll definitely have to watch for the icing scenario. This could be similar to the Dec 1st CAD situation where guidance drastically over estimates 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You can see on Allan's site how large the spread is, and this is contoured every 2 mb. What you don't see is the hr 162 image which is literally anywhere from Chatham to about 200nm east. The reason why the euro op was colder, was due the euro wrapping in the the low almost from SE-NW and destroying ern MA with the comma head. Both dynamic cooling and CAA are at play here. The euro ensembles did not really go this route, but perhaps some members near the Cape were tryng to indicate this. Look at the euro op, it's so wrapped up here and you can see that jagged look to the 0C 850mb isotherm, meaning areas with high vv are cooling. Euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 No. 2 storms, 2 threads. The first one will probably morph into an obs thread while storm 2 disco is ongoing. Man up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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