HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 A prelude to an epic, punted second half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 ECMWF, GFS, etc seem to be pointing to a smaller event starting Sunday. PAts game might be cool to watch (well, it will be anyway) Oops on the dates in the title... will fix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Snow to ice for many seems the way to lean for this one. Prob a low end warning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'll post my detailed thoughts on this events once the 12z guidance comes out. I've posted some prelim thoughts in the banter thread earlier this morning, but we are still at least 96 hours out and perhaps a bit longer depending on which shortwave ends up being the dominant one for this event early next week. The overnight guidance did come in a bit colder as a result of the Quebec high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I have some concerns with all this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I have some concerns with all this Suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Suppression? Always one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Always one of them Every time I hear that the high in Quebec is coming in stronger and colder that immediately pops into my head. The other term I have an irrational fear of is retrograde. After what happed in NNE, especially Maine, a couple of years ago I fear this sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Every time I hear that the high in Quebec is coming in stronger and colder that immediately pops into my head. The other term I have an irrational fear of is retrograde. After what happed in NNE, especially Maine, a couple of years ago I fear this sometimes. You and i are on the same page, That high is being under modeled and where its is would sneak a weaker 1st wave out underneath us, Not that we need to get overly concerned this far out but its always in the back of my head, And i still have nightmares of the retrograde storm in 2010 with that mega block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Not a big deal if you missed that paltry event...you guys have the bug kahuna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Not a big deal if you missed that paltry event...you guys have the bug kahuna. We are greedy......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 You and i are on the same page, That high is being under modeled and where its is would sneak a weaker 1st wave out underneath us, Not that we need to get overly concerned this far out but its always in the back of my head, And i still have nightmares of the retrograde storm in 2010 with that mega block The Storm That Ate Winter! 2005-06 had 12" less snow than 09-10, and last year's snowpack lasted 20 fewer days, but 09-10 remains at the bottom of my 14 winters here. Somewhat OT, but it seems like retro events are becoming more common during the past 4-5 yr, with Sandy and the Jan 2010 bomb heading the list. GFS runs seem to alternate between weak/suppressed dusting and high-end advisory event. At least there's something interesting inside 100 hr, for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We are greedy......lol Well, I agree regarding the first system...I'd be afraid with that high tending stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS like interior MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It totally deforms out and gets grinded. There is a weak wave under LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Well, I agree regarding the first system...I'd be afraid with that high tending stronger. Yes always in the back of my head, But i would forgo it for a 2nd wave bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Snow to ice is nice for interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It totally deforms out and gets grinded. There is a weak wave under LI. It luvs SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 a little snow for us then rain but congrats for NH/VT NNY, 1st system meh for me.. second system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 2nd wave looks a little more stout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The first wave is really strung out. Maybe a little snow Pike north into srn NH and then IP on the GFS verbatim. Way weaker than the euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The first wave is really strung out. Maybe a little snow Pike north into srn NH and then IP on the GFS verbatim. Way weaker than the euro op. Kind of has been the last several runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Kind of has been the last several runs Yeah I don't really buy the euro sub 988 low, but the GFS may be a little too flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah I don't really buy the euro sub 988 low, but the GFS may be a little too flat. A blend of the 2 probably more like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Suicides with the 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The first wave is really strung out. Maybe a little snow Pike north into srn NH and then IP on the GFS verbatim. Way weaker than the euro op. We close enough to get an estimated timing on this - approximate start and end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We close enough to get an estimated timing on this - approximate start and end? i dont think so, bc as will stated above, he waiting on full 12z suite to figure out which short waves will be dominant. gfs gets it outta here quicker, and euro was more of a monday event. so i think were at least a day away from having confidence on end time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I posted this in the banter thread earlier this morning, but I wanted to post it again in here. There are actually 3 main shortwavesin the flow...only 2 of them ever produce a storm. But the order in which that happens changes some of the outcomes. There will definitely be a "first" system...its just whether it happens more on Sunday/Sunday night rather than Monday. Here is the Euro at 96 hours....you can see 3 distinct waves I have highlighted. The first one gets overtaken by wave #2 in the southwest US and that becomes the dominant one. That is why the Euro has most of the event on Monday. Wave #3 near the PAC NW is what produces the big system after the first one. On the GFS, wave #1 is the dominant wave for the first event, and it lags wave #2 much further west than the Euro, and wave #2 on the GFS actually gets overtaken by wave #3 as the dominant wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I posted this in the banter thread earlier this morning, but I wanted to post it again in here. There are actually 3 main shortwavesin the flow...only 2 of them ever produce a storm. But the order in which that happens changes some of the outcomes. There will definitely be a "first" system...its just whether it happens more on Sunday/Sunday night rather than Monday. Here is the Euro at 96 hours....you can see 3 distinct waves I have highlighted. The first one gets overtaken by wave #2 in the southwest US and that becomes the dominant one. That is why the Euro has most of the event on Monday. Wave #3 near the PAC NW is what produces the big system after the first one. On the GFS, wave #1 is the dominant wave for the first event, and it lags wave #2 much further west than the Euro, and wave #2 on the GFS actually gets overtaken by wave #3 as the dominant wave. Good post. Lots of energy for the models to try to handle here. GFS really has only 1 storm, while the Euro has two as of 00z. We cant really iron out track if we dont know how many storms are coming in the first place. Furthermore, in terms of the second storm, so much depends on what the earlier shortwaves do due to the need for a 50/50 for the bigger storm. Should be fun to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 After today's 12z suite, we have an interesting set of solutions. The GFS is a very weak overrunning wave that dumps maybe an inch or 3 into SNE/CNE during the day on Sunday...esp north of the pike. Maybe some mixing/ice issues south of that in the interior. GGEM focuses the energy on wave #2 for this first event...thus producing a huge snowstorm for SNE on Monday Dec 17...with some weak mood snow on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night preceeding the main show. Euro actually has two back to back events on Dec 16 and Dec 17 into early Dec 18. I'm pretty skeptical of getting two seperate events that quick from eahc of those waves. The first is light overrunning snow for Sunday/Sunday night. It drops about 2-4" for most of SNE away from the extreme southern parts. The 2nd wave produces another round on Monday night into early Tuesday morning. About another 2-5" again focuses on SNE. But lighter snows make it into NNE on both events. Bottom line, even though this "event" or more unlikely, "events", is only about 100 hours out, we are still stuck with a very wide range of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.