weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM makes a fairly big deal out of system 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GEFS has a 498 thickness contour sitting north of us in eastern Canada. Just advect a tiny piece down and we're ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The ggem and gfs too me have the same theme. The first one is a little warm for sne. The 2nd one probably is too, it cools finally and there's some flakes in the reach around at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM makes a fairly big deal out of system 1. Its really system 2...as the first one is some weenie overruning snow for us on Sunday. But I suppose that is splitting hairs. Its Monday that is main show on GGEM and not Sunday or Sunday night. At least for this Dec 16-17 time frame. It looks like it has the big dog behind it, but I can only see it up to 144 and its still well southwest of here...and that is for the other thread anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM is definitely similar to the 12z euro with the handling of the s/w's. The third system probably would go apesh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM makes a fairly big deal out of system 1. Yup, differences with the models continue. Its amazing how slight differences in vort handling can result in such dramatic differences in terms of not only storm track, but number of storms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM is definitely similar to the 12z euro with the handling of the s/w's. The third system probably would go apesh*t. The second s/w is 12/6/96 on that one. Maybe a bit snoiwer than that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GEFS still generally look like garbage. They are definitely less amped though than the OP run. So that should suggest perhaps we will see some individual members look pretty decent. It will be interesting to see if there is a lot more spread this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The ggem and gfs too me have the same theme. The first one is a little warm for sne. The 2nd one probably is too, it cools finally and there's some flakes in the reach around at the end. GGEM is pretty snowy. At least Will and I agree on that...for SNE. Actually...very hard to say. Need to see better graphics and that waits till morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GEFS are a little mild aloft, but definitely less amped and east of 12z with wave 2, the one that the 18z GFS brought into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Is it still GFS vs. the world on this basically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GEFS are a little mild aloft, but definitely less amped and east of 12z with wave 2, the one that the 18z GFS brought into SNE. Yeah this wave was definitely less amped than the OP. The first one was somewhat less amped...but the difference is bigger in this one. Probably more spread this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 With a pattern like this, it's hard to see the GEFS try to close off and move north, perhaps part of the reason why we see this solution. Look at the flow across the US. The GEFS eventually close off but move ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Canadian with another weenie bomb towards the end of the run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Canadian with another weenie bomb towards the end of the run too. There's hardly a day where the ggem doesn't have a major storm in the long range. I think they stole nceps 1997 MRF coding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Here's to hoping the euro tosses some support towards the ggem solution again at 0z and not the drizzle me gentle gfs solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 A link lost. Good for Anologs. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM is much colder...thicknesses suggest all frozen except maybe far southenr CT/RI. GGEM is also going with the idea of keeping two shortwaves seperate. I think it is going to try and go hyper with the 2nd shortwave like it did at 12z. That's big snow on the GGEM. And pretty long duration as well. There's no middle ground here... the GFS looks really bad for snow and the GGEM looks really good. Unfortunately both solutions look entirely plausible as subtle changes in s/w evolution and interaction give rise to the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro weakens the front running wave pretty good. Just weenie snow on Sunday..maybe an inch. Not much more than that. Recall at 12z it had two distinct events on Dec 16 and Dec 17...both like 2-4" events. The weaker front runner seems to give a bit more room for the second wave to amplify. It looks like that one will be warmer than 12z guessing from the 96h panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nice for SNE on the euro.maybe slightly warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Interesting that at day 3 the Euro and GFS look pretty similar (at least in the east). The biggest differences at h5 are the shortwaves north of the Dakotas and in the Southwest US. That shortwave in southern Canada proves critical as by day 4 the two models depart significantly across the central US, affecting the flow into the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Definitely focuses more on the 2nd wave for this event. So most precip falls on the 17th. Good interior hit, but its warmer than the 12z run...so it keeps some folks out of it. South of the pike might have trouble taking this run at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 How's position of primary comp. W gfs or 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro blasts eastern areas if the sfc is cold enough as the low takes a very wide turn northward out off the coast and then almost backs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The Euro looks like another strong coastal low solution, coming up the coast from the Carolinas after primary transfer. Warm to start along the CP. Likely a good hit for interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Unfortunately, the 00z Euro has trended towards the GFS, which while not ideal may not be the worst thing as we could still get a pretty decent storm. It will certainly lack a good amount of cold air and will not be a potential KU storm like the previous Euro runs have shown. To be honest, this seems like the most reasonable solution. Finally able to key in on which piece of energy we really need to be watching. Take a look at the 12z Euro 500mb vs the new 00z Euro 13th 00z - Valid Sunday 12th 12z - Valid Sunday You see the difference already. The new runs digs much less, and will ultimately lead to one broad trough, very much similar to the GFS. Here is how this plays out 42 hours later: 13th 00z - Valid Tuesday 12th 12z - Valid Tuesday In all, I expect something closer to the new Euro solution, which is essentially something in between yesterdays run and the GFS. There does not appear to be enough support for yesterdays 12z solution where that SW digs so deep in the west, and remains separate from our first piece of energy. Still, we are looking at a very dynamic piece of energy, so I do expect a good storm, just not what many of us had hoped for. Time will time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 SE ridge is a bit stronger which also helps wave 2 become a bit mor juiced as compared to 00z. I did notice wave 3 s/w was a little faster here which actually helps us out because by the time it digs for oil, it is far enough offshore to hit us and not go into us as modeled. The flow is incredible complicated with s/w's everywhere and rather fast flow leading into it..a classic model nightmare here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Wave 2 would be a mixed bag I think on the coast and in CT. 925 temps get above 0C in CT meaning sleet perhaps. Snow interior MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 SE ridge is a bit stronger which also helps wave 2 become a bit mor juiced as compared to 00z. I did notice wave 3 s/w was a little faster here which actually helps us out because by the time it digs for oil, it is far enough offshore to hit us and not go into us as modeled. The flow is incredible complicated with s/w's everywhere and rather fast flow leading into it..a classic model nightmare here. Agreed it took me until today to really figure out which SW was which, ehhhh. This is about as bad as it gets. I did notice that the 00z's also came in a bit cooler with that "backdoorish front" Saturday, thus leaving colder air for Sunday as that first piece of the first wave moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.