CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks like wave 3 comes a little closer to the coast as compared to 12z, but a very wide MSLP closed isobar means a ton of spread. It looks like the mean is near the BM, but it could be on the Cape or further east as shown since the closed isobar around center of low pressure is so large. The mean goes ENE along the 40th parallel or so. It sort of introduces temps aloft that may cause issues for a time from near Kevin to BOS (BOS may have boundary layer issues), but then temps aloft cool. Big hit for Will and CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro ensembles also have that low near the 22ns off the BM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 No good analogs to think of with this storm... CIPS cant even give me a good one 120 hours out. The mean 2" snowfall was through NNJ, most of CT, and into BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro ensembles also have that low near the 22ns off the BM too. Yeah but idk how much of a low that really would be... looks to lack moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro blasts eastern areas if the sfc is cold enough as the low takes a very wide turn northward out off the coast and then almost backs in. Dec 1981 lol I'd hit it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 EC ens look a hair warmer and north of the op. Nice hit for the Lakes Region on Mon/Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 lol at the 6z GFS. Torching coastal to an inverted flake in 1 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 lol at the 6z GFS. Torching coastal to an inverted flake in 1 run. What a hoot--I kept hitting refresh it was such a shock. Three things: 1) I'm pretty confident that neither the 00 or 06 GFS will rule the roost. 2) I'm pretty sure that 90% will be seeing mixtures with the exceptions being our friends in VT/NH/ME 3) Having two threads for two events that are so close together and with which the second is initmately tied to what happens in the first makes posting and following very difficult. We should have a single analysis thread for the time period for Sunday-Thursday. Just a recommendation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What a hoot--I kept hitting refresh it was such a shock. Three things: 1) I'm pretty confident that neither the 00 or 06 GFS will rule the roost. 2) I'm pretty sure that 90% will be seeing mixtures with the exceptions being our friends in VT/NH/ME 3) Having two threads for two events that are so close together and with which the second is initmately tied to what happens in the first makes posting and following very difficult. We should have a single analysis thread for the time period for Sunday-Thursday. Just a recommendation. I agree. I was toggling between threads trying to figure out where to post last night....lol. Overall a great Euro ensemble run for the d7 and beyond particularly it seemed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 6z gefs now has 3 waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 What a hoot--I kept hitting refresh it was such a shock. Three things: 1) I'm pretty confident that neither the 00 or 06 GFS will rule the roost. 2) I'm pretty sure that 90% will be seeing mixtures with the exceptions being our friends in VT/NH/ME 3) Having two threads for two events that are so close together and with which the second is initmately tied to what happens in the first makes posting and following very difficult. We should have a single analysis thread for the time period for Sunday-Thursday. Just a recommendation. I don't see how difficult it is. They are clearly 2 separate events. But whatevs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 if you believe last night's euro, the best shot at snow - albeit light - for SNE might just be Sun night. after that, temps warm too much. thing start to cool again late Wed as the low bombs offshore so there's that period too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Good news this morning..Euro/GGEM good agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro blasts eastern areas if the sfc is cold enough as the low takes a very wide turn northward out off the coast and then almost backs in. Yeah I think inteiror SNE is going to be the place to be..Even if we flip to ice for a time Let's hope the general trends hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Of course the EURO trends towards the GFS this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks like wave 3 comes a little closer to the coast as compared to 12z, but a very wide MSLP closed isobar means a ton of spread. It looks like the mean is near the BM, but it could be on the Cape or further east as shown since the closed isobar around center of low pressure is so large. The mean goes ENE along the 40th parallel or so. It sort of introduces temps aloft that may cause issues for a time from near Kevin to BOS (BOS may have boundary layer issues), but then temps aloft cool. Big hit for Will and CNE. I'd honestly be fine with that happening...We lay down all kinds of snow..throw some ice in there and then back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I don't see how difficult it is. They are clearly 2 separate events. But whatevs. The challenge is that pertinent comments about each invariably are presented in the other thread. But, you're the mod--do as you see fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Who's the knucklehead who made two threads? Oh...wait... Merge 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The BOX HWO sums things up beautifuilly in a totally non-committal way. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. IT PROBABLY WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR A TIME. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT PROBABLY WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. IF IT DOES END UP COLD ENOUGH...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SMALL SWATH OF ICE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 that lead system screws things up. would be better to have that not exist. or have it be a lot more potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 one thing i could see is areas in northern and maybe western parts of MA like hubbdave and MPM etc having a prolonged period of fzdz sun night into monday? it's a pretty solid cold tuck with that HP anchored in well north of the region and there's not a great mechanism to scour out the low level cold as the warm front approaches/passes. maybe we all see some lighter snows on sunday...most transition to light rain/drizzle but S NH/N MA go to light ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 one thing i could see is areas in northern and maybe western parts of MA like hubbdave and MPM etc having a prolonged period of fzdz sun night into monday? it's a pretty solid cold tuck with that HP anchored in well north of the region and there's not a great mechanism to scour out the low level cold as the warm front approaches/passes. maybe we all see some lighter snows on sunday...most transition to light rain/drizzle but S NH/N MA go to light ice? ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 ???? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 ? Most of the other mets were discussing colder scenarios as the interior would stay frozen for the entire duration..Yours was just a different interpretation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Most of the other mets were discussing colder scenarios as the interior would stay frozen for the entire duration..Yours was just a different interpretation on the board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 on the board? Yeah didn't you see all their overnight posts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah didn't you see all their overnight posts?? yeah i read them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Looks like a lot of them mentioned the coast was going to have issues and some inland as well, That's what i read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah didn't you see all their overnight posts?? stop misquoting everyone on the board, the EURO trended toward the GFS that was the main takeaway of the overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 stop misquoting everyone on the board, the EURO trended toward the GFS that was the main takeaway of the overnight runs. One run isn't a trend...stop being dramatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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