SnowMan Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 After today's 12z suite, we have an interesting set of solutions. The GFS is a very weak overrunning wave that dumps maybe an inch or 3 into SNE/CNE during the day on Sunday...esp north of the pike. Maybe some mixing/ice issues south of that in the interior. GGEM focuses the energy on wave #2 for this first event...thus producing a huge snowstorm for SNE on Monday Dec 17...with some weak mood snow on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night preceeding the main show. Euro actually has two back to back events on Dec 16 and Dec 17 into early Dec 18. I'm pretty skeptical of getting two seperate events that quick from eahc of those waves. The first is light overrunning snow for Sunday/Sunday night. It drops about 2-4" for most of SNE away from the extreme southern parts. The 2nd wave produces another round on Monday night into early Tuesday morning. About another 2-5" again focuses on SNE. But lighter snows make it into NNE on both events. Bottom line, even though this "event" or more unlikely, "events", is only about 100 hours out, we are still stuck with a very wide range of solutions. Wasn't it Dec 17th back in 07 when we had that snowstorm that caused problems...gridlocks all over the place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Wasn't it Dec 17th back in 07 when we had that snowstorm that caused problems...gridlocks all over the place? Dec 13 2007 Here is a good source for snowfall amounts (only certain years): http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/snow-info2.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Solution #2 must verify to save Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 After today's 12z suite, we have an interesting set of solutions. The GFS is a very weak overrunning wave that dumps maybe an inch or 3 into SNE/CNE during the day on Sunday...esp north of the pike. Maybe some mixing/ice issues south of that in the interior. GGEM focuses the energy on wave #2 for this first event...thus producing a huge snowstorm for SNE on Monday Dec 17...with some weak mood snow on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night preceeding the main show. Euro actually has two back to back events on Dec 16 and Dec 17 into early Dec 18. I'm pretty skeptical of getting two seperate events that quick from eahc of those waves. The first is light overrunning snow for Sunday/Sunday night. It drops about 2-4" for most of SNE away from the extreme southern parts. The 2nd wave produces another round on Monday night into early Tuesday morning. About another 2-5" again focuses on SNE. But lighter snows make it into NNE on both events. Bottom line, even though this "event" or more unlikely, "events", is only about 100 hours out, we are still stuck with a very wide range of solutions. The only thing we do know, Is there is going to be a system or systems in the 17th-25th period, Somewhere on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The only thing we do know, Is there is going to be a system or systems in the 17th-25th period, Somewhere on the east coast. Well I'm specifically talking about Dec 16-17 in here since this thread is dedicated to that....but yes. Even if this one somehow is a total fail, I'd be pretty shocked if at least one decent sized system did not impact the northeast between now and Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17iceman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Is there going to be enough cold air to support this/these wave/waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Is there going to be enough cold air to support this/these wave/waves? If the high noses far enough south...there certainly will be. The high pressure for this wave 1 is still pretty fresh and arctic in nature. There will be below zero temps in far northern NE in N Maine with this air mass most likely. Advecting some of that cold dry air down the CP is the key to keeping this mostly frozen. GFS not that impressed with it. Euro and ensembles are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17iceman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 thank you for answering my question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 ...Euro and ensembles are. [kevin]AWT[/kevin] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Looks like another coastal storm on Christmas Eve too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Looks like another coastal storm on Christmas Eve too. locked it in. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 locked it in. Thanks. funny man lol garth what is your elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Matty Noyes thinks rain for a lot of peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Matty Noyes thinks rain for a lot of peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Matty Noyes thinks rain for a lot of peeps That still possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 That still possible Would not shock me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Would not shock me It would be more of a disappointment the closer we get to the end of DEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 funny man lol garth what is your elevation As noted in sig. +/- a few feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Who blinks first? Will the GFS wash away weenie hopes? Will the Euro score a whopper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Heavy heavy snow for weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 There is going to be either long durations of snow, rain or meltdowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Light snow 1-3" Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Front end dump 3-7" Tuesday evening to heavy rain and gusty winds through Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well if one has to have a model on their side, it is most comforting to have it be the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Fake punt...hail mary pass FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well if one has to have a model on their side, it is most comforting to have it be the Euro. Sometimes the euro has these weenie runs and then craps the bed inside day 7, but sometimes it scores a major coup. It's interesting, because many times it is the euro showing the coastal hugger, not the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Ah, the new thread....I suggest as we get closer in Bobo should start for JUJU sake. Bob is like 12-0 in the biggies. lol Great to be tracking something, this one...the next and the next. One can only speculate but wise to think a compromise at juncture. Great concert ongoing- bioHD WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It's a complicated series of systems, not a fork like Sandy was. Neither model is correct, but the Euro is probably closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Sometimes the euro has these weenie runs and then craps the bed inside day 7, but sometimes it scores a major coup. It's interesting, because many times it is the euro showing the coastal hugger, not the GFS. I remember the GFS was wildly amped and inland in the October 18, 2009 Nor' Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I remember the GFS was wildly amped and inland in the October 18, 2009 Nor' Easter. How did that turn out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Light snow 1-3" Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Front end dump 3-7" Tuesday evening to heavy rain and gusty winds through Wednesday Nice, conservative Room to grow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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