WilkesboroDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Here is the thing, Everyone should expect some wild solutions from the models right now....why?? The pattern is changing and the models are trying to get adjusted. I also think that the -SOI has certainly helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 180 Literally, that is accumulating snow from West Charlotte to Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Here is the thing, Everyone should expect some wild solutions from the models right now....why?? The pattern is changing and the models are trying to get adjusted. I also think that the -SOI has certainly helped. Never doubt the SOI. Especially when it fell as hard as it did several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 In the meantime, we will have weather to talk about coming up. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE MAY ADVANCE INTO COASTAL CAROLINAS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS BUOYANCY WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING 400 J/KG AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE ACROSS THIS REGION LATE. NEW 7 DAY QPF MAPS FROM THE HPC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Prob some initial sleet/snow to rain. Looks like hickory is .15 then to rain w/ temps around 34, up near martinsville they prob get .4 or .5 of freezing rain before rising above zero. But keep in mind, this is 7 days out. If that HP is seriously 1040+ sitting up there over top the great lakes, this would trend significantly cold. But it's hard to trust any solution at this point. But as I've said for several weeks, the indices support something occurring around this timeframe. thanks always like reading your blogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 after reading about the Rex Block I was hoping for it to suppress the storm down along the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I think the CAD showing up now is legit, and a decently strong CAD scenario has some merit. I would not even rule out some wintry mix/freezing rain onset (briefly) in the mountains/foothills before changing to rain. But the big problem here is the overall lack of arctic air. There are certainly strong CAD situations with chilly temps which produce mainly rain, and I think that's what we'll see in this case. Unless the area around and north of the north central and northeast US/Canada boarder magically cools dramatically, I don't see how, even with a strong high there will be any significant winter wx in the SE. It's not set in stone, but I have to agree with Robert on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 after reading about the Rex Block I was hoping for it to suppress the storm down along the gulf coast. For the REX block to be correct and actually do that the 50/50 would have to be more west than what is being modeled right now....IMO the 50/50 too far east but its not set in stone......again I cant imagine a low wound up or not being able to dive into that block...maybe some but northern Indiana I dont think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I think it should be noted how hard it is for models to model cold air damming events. granted they have gotten better, but it's still not good. I agree the synoptic setup should for now only be followed. Do you see a way the high pressure can move east? That would be ideal for a CAD event. Maybe, depends all on the 50/50 low. The stronger it is and the further south, the quicker it will draw in higher pressures over SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Frame before actually shows snow p type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 back the 50/50 up west and south some and its business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 hour 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 hour 132 Too early in the run you want two days from there. @144 you can see the low we're watching starting to form in central LA or so. It also has our s/w digging pretty far south out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not the best at reading maps,by where is the damming high on this map? All I see are the lows hour 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 hour 132 What is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not the best at reading maps,by where is the damming high on this map? All I see are the lows Where indeed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not the best at reading maps,by where is the damming high on this map? All I see are the lows It's too early in the run to know if there will be CAD on the Canadian. JMA looks to me like it has an alright CAD setup. We'll see what the GFS has to say tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Pretty sure that is the s/w on xmas.......that s/w is the 50/50 we are gonna need...looks north compared to 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 180 on the GEM notice that high in the lakes is trucking east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Got a buddy that works for the DOT in Randolph county and he told me today they are scheduled to put rine down Tuesday. His words are they told us there is a 65% chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Got a buddy that works for the DOT in Randolph county and he told me today they are scheduled to put rine down Tuesday. His words are they told us there is a 65% chance of snow. You serious Clark? How would one come up with a 65% chance of snow for next week, I wonder? It doesn't look to me that there's much chance of snow on Tuesday or Wednesday. The rain should wash all that stuff away pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Folks, KATL is easily going to end up with its warmest year on record in 2012. It is going to be either 65.4 or 65.5 F. The current record warmest is only 65.0 F, which was set in 1990. Records go back to 1879. The longterm average is only ~61.8 F. I strongly suspect that many cities will end up with similar record warm years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You serious Clark? How would one come up with a 65% chance of snow for next week, I wonder? It doesn't look to me that there's much chance of snow on Tuesday or Wednesday. The rain should wash all that stuff away pretty quickly. Plus holiday travel to take it away. Sounds fishy...and probably does not deserve to be in the forecast discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Plus holiday travel to take it away. Sounds fishy...and probably does not deserve to be in the forecast discussion thread. He probably for that information from a met that works for the dot. Maybe the dot thinks a diff scenario will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Got a buddy that works for the DOT in Randolph county and he told me today they are scheduled to put rine down Tuesday. His words are they told us there is a 65% chance of snow. I know a guy that is a supervisor for DOT in Davie county. He said if they don't put it down when they have a chance they won't be able to get same amount next year. He said its all about the " Budget" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's amazing how much the -AO has decimated the Polar Vortex. This is honestly an amazing precursor IMO to a great pattern down the road. We just need some luck w/ the timing and pacific. December's AO number is going to be off the charts negative. just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Then where should I post it? This from the guy that half his posts are pics of someone jumping off a cliff. you were talking weather related and it is not storm mode. If that is the case half the thread will be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's amazing how much the -AO has decimated the Polar Vortex. This is honestly an amazing precursor IMO to a great pattern down the road. We just need some luck w/ the timing and pacific. December's AO number is going to be off the charts negative. just wow Looks like it might even plunge deeper by the new year. You gotta think at some point those dream patterns in the LR of the GFS have to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I would think at this point, barring any surprises, it is time to look at January as being our first chance at winter. Basically, climo supports that anyway. Honestly, I'm too tired to dig this up...but how does the ENSO look for Jan-Feb. GaWx, you got that? If we are in Nina territory, may be tough luck. However, if we can hold neutral eventually the -AO has to win. PNA is driving the cart right now. May drive to the mtns this weekend if they get the expected upslope. The best bet is for it to remain in neutral this winter although likely leaning to the negative side of 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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