dendrite Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Euro ensembles out to 108...not surprisingly, they are east of the OP run. Way east through 120. Similar to the 00z ens run...maybe a tick warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Almost right over the Benchmark at 120 hours. The airmass is marginal though. 850 line out near 495/ORH and the -4C line is way up in Canada...so wherever it might snow, it would have to be an isothermal paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The 12z Euro is just a bit too mild. If you remember the October snowstorm featured 850 Ts sub -4C... and this was well forecast prior to the event. The Euro is much more marginal with 850s hanging out around 0c. That may be sufficient for the mountains but likely close but no cigar for the fast majority of us. The GFS, on the other hand, is quite a bit cooler and would allow for a period of snow/sleet even in the valleys. What we should watch for is antecedent cold/dry overperforming on the models over the next couple days. In addition... the storm needs to be a late phase. If it phases too early and bombs too far south the synoptic lift will reach a max too far south. We want it to be bombing at its nearest pass to SNE to maximize "dynamic cooling" overhead. A low that's holding steady or filling as it approaches SNE won't get the job done... at least under 2kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Almost right over the Benchmark at 120 hours. The airmass is marginal though. 850 line out near 495/ORH and the -4C line is way up in Canada...so wherever it might snow, it would have to be an isothermal paste bomb. It actually has 2m at 0C from 00-12z up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The 12z Euro is just a bit too mild. If you remember the October snowstorm featured 850 Ts sub -4C... and this was well forecast prior to the event. The Euro is much more marginal with 850s hanging out around 0c. That may be sufficient for the mountains but likely close but no cigar for the fast majority of us. The GFS, on the other hand, is quite a bit cooler and would allow for a period of snow/sleet even in the valleys. What we should watch for is antecedent cold/dry overperforming on the models over the next couple days. In addition... the storm needs to be a late phase. If it phases too early and bombs too far south the synoptic lift will reach a max too far south. We want it to be bombing at its nearest pass to SNE to maximize "dynamic cooling" overhead. A low that's holding steady or filling as it approaches SNE won't get the job done... at least under 2kft. Also, an early phase is likely to rip the mid-level low due north and tuck it closer to the coast which would push the 0C line out to like ALB. So there's multiple negatives to an earlier phase. Would be much worse coastal flooding potential too for the areas that don't need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It actually has 2m at 0C from 00-12z up here. It shows it slightly warmer on WSI maps..like low to mid 30s across a lot of the interior except up by BML...but the 2m temps are irrelevant anyway this far out. If you have good VVs with an isothermal mid-level profile near -1C...interior would probably have near 32F temps...maybe 30F or so in the higher spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Also, an early phase is likely to rip the mid-level low due north and tuck it closer to the coast which would push the 0C line out to like ALB. So there's multiple negatives to an earlier phase. Would be much worse coastal looding potential too for the areas that don't need it. Yes, absolutely. The early phase stacks everything and tucks things close to the coast. Not only is the later phase good for enhanced quasi-geostrophic lift but it's also good for getting the mid level low centers to deepen and track to the NE... and not right over us. Models are ticking toward a more amped up solution it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Even the "cold" GFS is just far too warm for BDL. All rain... maybe a wet snowflake at the onset. Much better for the Litchfield Hills/Berks with some snow going over to sleet. Even the colder solution is just too warm. But damn the GFS is windy. That's 50 mph gusts at the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Man, if we could add even just 2 weeks of climo to this setup, it would have a lot more potential for big snows in the interior. It has the feel of a tease that will end up as a 38F rain for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 That's a heck of a gradient too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The amount of llvl moisture being drawn into the system is pretty nuts when taking into account the strength of the lift that would be involved. Would be looking at some pretty heft precip rates whether it be rain or wintry precipitation across the higher elevations of interior New England. The GFS has some crazy VV's over portions of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Even the "cold" GFS is just far too warm for BDL. All rain... maybe a wet snowflake at the onset. Much better for the Litchfield Hills/Berks with some snow going over to sleet. Even the colder solution is just too warm. But damn the GFS is windy. That's 50 mph gusts at the coast! GFS brings in mid-50's sfc dews along the coastal plain which would be big in mixing the llvl's and generating the potential for stronger winds aloft mixing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Once again, the thing is fueled by Gulf stream bathwater with a strong ULL disturbance. Pretty strong PV coming down with another tropo fold indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Once again, the thing is fueled by Gulf stream bathwater with a strong ULL disturbance. Pretty strong PV coming down with another tropo fold indicated. Warm air seclusion? boy this is getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Man, if we could add even just 2 weeks of climo to this setup, it would have a lot more potential for big snows in the interior. It has the feel of a tease that will end up as a 38F rain for most of us. In early November it seems hard to lock in a cold solution. This will probably be a waffle event...occasional wind driven catspaws then cold driving rain DT seems to be feeling it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Well to be honest, many nor'easters feature some sort of asymetric warm core. The reason being is that convection and latent heat released as well as the circulation pinching off a warm layer usually occur. I think even the Dec 2010 storm had this. However, nor'easters over the gulf stream in November can be fun and exhibit even stronger features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Once again, the thing is fueled by Gulf stream bathwater with a strong ULL disturbance. Pretty strong PV coming down with another tropo fold indicated. You can see on the GFS just how earlier that occurs. Too late for us, I'm afraid. Dynamic Tropopause dips below 500mb off the NC coast then gradually rises as the PV anomaly moves toward us. You'd rather see that tropopause fold go to town off BID... not HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I am kind of laughing at the snow talk from us weenies, as hard as we look for the r/s line at day 4. When storms trend stronger daily on ENS and OPs inside 120 , look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 In early November it seems hard to lock in a cold solution. This will probably be a waffle event...occasional wind driven catspaws then cold driving rain DT seems to be feeling it Early November is a black hole in the snow records here. A lot of our late October daily snow records are more impressive than the first week to 10 days of November for some bizarre reason. It just doesn't want to snow in that time period. Once we get past Nov 10th, the snow records get a lot more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 In early November it seems hard to lock in a cold solution. This will probably be a waffle event...occasional wind driven catspaws then cold driving rain DT seems to be feeling it I'd rather persistent cat paws but I'll be happy to just see some flakes. It's been a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Early November is a black hole in the snow records here. A lot of our late October daily snow records are more impressive than the first week to 10 days of November for some bizarre reason. It just doesn't want to snow in that time period. Once we get past Nov 10th, the snow records get a lot more impressive. Yeah, I recall you mentioning that before. Well, at least the Euro comes out an hour earlier after tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Hard to believe many of us go from a Tropical System to a heavy wet snowstorm in about 8 days time. Hope the DPW are ready with plows etc..and not caught by surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Well to be honest, many nor'easters feature some sort of asymetric warm core. The reason being is that convection and latent heat released as well as the circulation pinching off a warm layer usually occur. I think even the Dec 2010 storm had this. However, nor'easters over the gulf stream in November can be fun and exhibit even stronger features. 2010 had it, 970 with a +12 center surrounded by -4 -10. We had a great discussion about it. They are pretty common in very very deep storms but to see a possible sub 980 or even 970 storm again so very close to the most amazing storm of my life is really mind boggling. I know most NorthEast of CCT and east of Narry Bay had really somewhat Meh conditions in Sandy but this is unreal in many aspects Met wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Hard to believe many of us go from a Tropical System to a heavy wet snowstorm in about 8 days time. Hope the DPW are ready with plows etc..and not caught by surprise Nothing shows snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Hard to believe many of us go from a Tropical System to a heavy wet snowstorm in about 8 days time. Hope the DPW are ready with plows etc..and not caught by surprise Careful Mcflurrys might be your only hope post occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Nothing shows snow for you ?? Euro ens and Gefs both do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Hard to believe many of us go from a Tropical System to a heavy wet snowstorm in about 8 days time. Hope the DPW are ready with plows etc..and not caught by surprise Most of them were plowing streets during Sandy to get the debris off the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Nothing shows snow for you Not totally correct...I'm sure the KFS has feet upon feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Still think elevation snow sne limited accums and rain for lower elevations right now. Wouldn't go any further unless we see continued modeling of good vv and heavy precip with colder atmosphere. Wouldn't rule out the storm from cutting over land yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 From BOX AFD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WED/THUR TIME FRAME. AS STATED EARLIER SEVERAL MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER AND ARE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL HAZARDS: * STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. * INTERIOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW...ESP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST. * FRESH WATER FLOODING ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. * MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST COAST. MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND THE INTERIOR POSSIBILITY OF WET SNOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD TRACK...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND HUGS THE EASTERN COASTLINE AS IT HEADS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WED. STILL SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS TRACK IS THE CLOSEST TO THE INTERIOR AS THE EC WAS CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC FOR ITS RUN AND THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK...AND A COLDER SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR AREA WIDE BY WED NIGHT/THURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDED AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SNE...WHICH WILL DELAY THE FORWARD MOVEMENT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ESP FRESH WATER AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING...AS IT WILL SIT OVER MULTIPLE TIDES FROM WED INTO THURS. PWAT VALUES ARE INCREASING AS WELL...SHOWING BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIP. BECAUSE OF THE COLDER SOLUTION AND THE INCREASE OF PRECIP...BELIEVE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IS INCREASING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE WARM AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD...SO AT ONSET WHERE TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AND PRECIP FALLING...EXPECT SOME WET SNOW. TIMING WILL BE A CONCERN AS IF IT WILL IMPACT ANY OF THE COMMUNITIES OR NOT...HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. BELIEVE THAT THE TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WED/WED NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A RAIN EVENT. BUT AS THE SYSTEM EXISTS ON THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME MORE SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR. DAMAGING WINDS IS A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG FROM THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE STRONG ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE MARITIMES. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO SNE...925 MB HAS A JET OF 70 KTS OF WIND OVER THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS. THIS IS SHOWN IN SEVERAL OF THE MODELS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE WNDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE ESP ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. BACKED WINDS OFF A LITTLE BIT IN THE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE STRONG WINDS PLAY OUT. KEPT THE MAIN JIST OF THE PREV FORECAST OF THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS TO A MORE COLDER SOLUTIONS AS THIS IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. HAVE ALSO INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BY A WHOLE INCH AS IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME BANDING POSSIBILITIES ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM PERHAPS A COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO FORM. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS AS MODEL DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH. FINALLY BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TREND AND MORE PRECIP...HAVE INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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