Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 one thing to watch for over the interior...there could be a coastal front...with locations to the west of it kind of saying wtf where's my wind I am sure this board will be full of bust posts while others can not post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 A hurricane wrapped inside a massive Noreaster. The due W, WSW track looks suspect. I have no sound reason to refute. Undeniably greater NYC environs south to the VA border appears to be g-zero a large area for coastal flooding, surge with possible multiple astro high tides. A double edge sword i.e. tropical aspect a stall with sharp hook (or) an increased forward speed resulting in FRQ destruction. A 450 mile windfield qualifying a severe storm but in reality we've endured worse. How this shakes out in the next few days to a week. Historic, Epic, Unprecidented, Uncharted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So if the new GFS run comes in with a LI landfall,you would think the brainwashed Euro NHC will move their little cone further north into New England...I mean we are back to a cane and she is tanking with her pressure...this whole thing is not right...yeah I'm preeching to the choir here..but this is being way to underestimated...by the way Sandy's pressure is way down to 957mb....This southward left hand hook is wrong... Dude first these are the best pros, using terms like brainwashed is not cool. The hook is not southward its WNW and their track reflects that. Wishcasting is not going to change it, they will adjust gradually as more data comes in, their cone today means little tomorrow. And for Gods sake do not look at the L on the map when a storm has a 400-500 mile circulation. Rant over. Please be respectful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 None of the models, even the ones that went crazy with the pressure, had the storm strengthening like this at this point. Unclear of the relevance of this deepening now in regards to the capture later. Could the pressure rise again soon or we in the long term warm seclusion deepening process prior to landfall? Yeah... also not clear to me if this deepening is from tropical strengthening with lower shear vs. interaction with the trough. I know we poo poo it, but anyone have what NOGAPS was showing for 12z Sat? Current pressures are 10+ mb lower than forecast by Euro or GFS. I remember NOGAPS having one of the deeper / earlier left-hook scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Envision a huge donut 70-80 miles across with a smaller convective ball in the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am sure this board will be full of bust posts while others can not post. Bust is ok. I'm fine with sitting home with electricity and a fresh cup o' java tuesday morning watching Jim Cantore report on Atlantic City no longer existing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 You need a better justification for accusing the NHC of being brainwashed other than egregious wishcasting. Agreed... Is very plausible..with the trough. Phasing, the ridiculous block in place.... If this storm can do it: Ten this storm can and WILL do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am sure this board will be full of bust posts while others can not post. LOL that's a good point...there will be the inland bust posts from those that didn't lose power, while coastal folks watch their laptops float away. The telling tale will be if CT Blizz is still posting on Tuesday morning. He was done for like a week along with everyone else last October by halfway into the storm. I'm not sold the interior power outages are anything like last October's snowstorm. Will Hartford proper lose power for up to 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 lol Mods are going to have fun today, in any case we do not dodge a very serious situation whether its the euro or gfs..........in fact euro just piles tons and tons of water into the sound with direct easterly fetch. Good luck and Gods speed, by the way like seeing those pressure drops stronger canes like to move poleward do not let your guard down, this still could easily come north a smidge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 man the ukie would be nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro has LF on Cape May Cape May vs. DE--talk about symantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This is what I was referring to - I probably misunderstood though I didn't think we would see a model lock until this 12z run. Storm is moving now, 20-50'mile differences in track in that first 12 hours is big. We will see how this goes today. Feeling better that damage from wind here won't be as bad at my locale. NYC utoh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I didn't think we would see a model lock until this 12z run. Storm is moving now, 20-50'mile differences in track in that first 12 hours is big. We will see how this goes today. Feeling better that damage from wind here won't be as bad at my locale. NYC utoh dude..you're going to get smoked pretty darn good. regardless of model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 man the ukie would be nasty Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 man the ukie would be nasty yea that model really gets us good, over the years it has performed very well with Cutoffs. Crazy mf'ing Uncle. Can not discount that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Map? Look back I posted every major model a page or so back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 eye differential temps from 3C to 9C so we are regaining some more tropical characteristics...........pressure is way down there any model have this low pressure at this time.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not sure what to expect. While a pure tropical system landfalling near Delaware Bay would be less catastrophic this far north, the extratrop/hybrid factor clouds the issue. ScottN, will flights be allowed into Boston Sunday? Fear for aircraft sequestration remains but if the aircraft in question is heading out that night it could happen. In any case, NYC is in for the storm of most of the folks on this bb's life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Can someone plz start a new tread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 sitting here in my pjs trying to figure out if I need to go to the gas station to fill my gas cans for the generator. i just can't figure out the impact of this to central new england. i am sure it is best to be prepared, but i really dont want to leave the couch, and wont have time to go tomorrow since i have to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 eye differential temps from 3C to 9C so we are regaining some more tropical characteristics...........pressure is way down there any model have this low pressure at this time.? 11z 957 mb vs. 0Z Euro 968 mb for 12z Sat 6z NAM 980 mb for 12z Sat 0Z GFS 972 mb for 12z Sat 0Z NOGAPS 980 mb for 12z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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