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hurricane sandy thread #2


forkyfork

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Landfall nyc on 06zthe gfs

Another run, another solution. I fully expect 12z to make a landfall anywhere but NYC. It isn't sure on how to handle the strength of the block. Euro has the highest verification scores for 500mb anomalies. Is there any evidence that the Euro is overdoing the strength of this feature? It will be a major win or fail for the model if it holds steady or yields to the other globals when all is said and done.

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The only reason why the euro is the only model that's well south right now is because it has a much stronger block. 6z gfs has a much weaker block and its still well north of the euro

"The Euro is the only model that's well south"? Disagree with that, although agree on the reading of the block.

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Seems to me with each passing run of the various models and there ensembles we are slowly narrowing down to more percise consenses. We are not there yet but, as of now, I think we can limit the most likely area of landfall / direct impact from the Delmarva to LI. South or north of there seems less and less likely to me. Obviously that stretch I have mentioned is still quite large and impacts in any specific locale would differ significantly with various detailed tracks through that range. Like with any tropical, or in this case hybrid / sub tropcial, system making landfall those near and to the right of lanfall will feel the brunt of the surge / wave action / coastal flooding issues. Wind impacts will be more spread out due to an expanding windfield but again those specifics are yet to be determined. And thirdly the inland flooding threat from heavy rains is very real and will likely become, as it usually does, the big story unless the coastal flooding / surge possibilites reach the full potential one would expect based on current modeling. Regardless of specific details in any one locale this is a high to potentially extreme impact event over a large and densely populated region. State, County & local OEM officials have some serious and difficult decisions to make during the next 24-36 hours.

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To me it doesn't matter very much if this makes landfall in S NJ or DE/Delmarva. This isn't a tightly wound hurricane with winds decreasing quickly away from the eye. You could definitely see prolific wind gusts well away, possibly even into New England with the southern tracks we have. And those winds will continue to pile in water over a very long period of time into a lot of the bays and the LI Sound. The worst would be a NW heading storm rather than a due west heading storm, but either scenario would still be very bad. The only real way people on the South Shore or NJ coast escape huge impact is if we see landfall NE of us.

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I haven't seen any estimate on storm surge yet. Is it too soon to get any ideas on how much surge to expect on the high tides let say from Cape Cod to Southern New Jersey? Since i live on the shore in West Haven CT I also was interested in surge for the CT coast.

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It already looks subtropical at least, definitely won't be a typical hurricane so hopefully people realize this will be a huge system with impacts well away from the center. Even a delmarva landfall would affect us significantly. I'm interested to see what happens once it phases, never seen anything like what's going to unfold, should be very interesting.

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The 8 am NHC advisory showed that Sandy decelerated further overnight. Sandy is now tracking NW at just 10 mph. Its slower forward motion is increasing the likelihood that it will be captured farther south. While the GFS/GFS ensembles can't be dismissed just yet and Sandy could still make landfall somewhere from the VA Capes to northern NJ, my guess is that the Delmarva to southern NJ offers the highest probability at this time.

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The 8 am NHC advisory showed that Sandy decelerated further overnight. Sandy is now tracking NW at just 10 mph. Its slower forward motion is increasing the likelihood that it will be captured farther south. While the GFS/GFS ensembles can't be dismissed just yet and Sandy could still make landfall somewhere from the VA Capes to northern NJ, my guess is that the Delmarva to southern NJ offers the highest probability at this time.

But Don, I believe that most of the models were slowing Sandy down near this point anyway (not sure to the extent)...I haven't checked the position wrt the models at this point. Can you clarify?

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The 8 am NHC advisory showed that Sandy decelerated further overnight. Sandy is now tracking NW at just 10 mph. Its slower forward motion is increasing the likelihood that it will be captured farther south. While the GFS/GFS ensembles can't be dismissed just yet and Sandy could still make landfall somewhere from the VA Capes to northern NJ, my guess is that the Delmarva to southern NJ offers the highest probability at this time.

The Virginia Capes are too south of a possibility IMO. How intense Sandy also determines when it will make that westward turn, as well as the forward motion of the trough and how strong the energy is rounding the base of the trough. The intensity of the ridge by Greenland is also another factor, which has been trending weaker on the model runs, which would support a slightly north track.

I can see anywhere from the Delmarva to NYC as a possible landfalling point for this system.

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But Don, I believe that most of the models were slowing Sandy down near this point anyway (not sure to the extent)...I haven't checked the position wrt the models at this point. Can you clarify?

That's what I thought as well. Even the further north models had it slowing around this timeframe, and that was reflected in the NHC track for the past few days.

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I haven't seen any estimate on storm surge yet. Is it too soon to get any ideas on how much surge to expect on the high tides let say from Cape Cod to Southern New Jersey? Since i live on the shore in West Haven CT I also was interested in surge for the CT coast.

Early to say but estimates I've seen range from 6-10 feet. The full moon could certainly exacerbate things and remember, that doesn't include waves on top of the surge. That would certainly flood a lot of people. The center of my town is I think 9-10 feet above sea level?

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