LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 thank you! this is what i was alluding to before with the blending comment. you hit the nail right on the head. the classic center/eyewall landfall point is more relevant for pure tropical systems, not a system like we're about to see with Sandy's transition... I think it is relevant though, although modeling hugging isn't great. The fact is that a storm that swings around the way the 0z GFS did means much less wind and surge for people further down south jersey where I am on the water. To me, it can mean the difference between possibly losing a home and getting by with less wind that is blowing out to sea. Anyone below the center of circulation on the coast will be better off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think it is relevant though, although modeling hugging isn't great. The fact is that a storm that swings around the way the 0z GFS did means much less wind and surge for people further down south jersey where I am on the water. To me, it can mean the difference between possibly losing a home and getting by with less wind that is blowing out to sea. Anyone below the center of circulation on the coast will be better off. great point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 here comes the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Through hr 30, Sandy is a bit faster on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Through hr 30, Sandy is a bit faster on the euro trough and block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro is speeding things up through hour 36. A good bit north of the 12z run. Also faster with Central US energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Most notably a slightly weaker atlantic ridge which should allow for a bit more easterly jog...assuming the central us trough isn't too sped up to pull this thing into Wallops island again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy Down to 85mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 trough and block? Minor changes, its all gonna come down to the timing of the phase and when Sandy turns WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well northeast of the 12z run now at 54 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue ECMWF 00z takes Sandy into Chesapeake Bay in 96 hours, as massive hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue ECMWF 00z takes Sandy into Chesapeake Bay in 96 hours, as massive hurricane . So is not further NE?Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's caught up to its old spot now -- and just appears to be faster. Looks to be hooking right back into MD/DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Faster, but not farther north, looks to slam into the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's just 6 hours faster..comparing 00z 78 to 12z 96 and it's literally on top of it's position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 earthlight, does the euro's del marva hit help or hurt our area in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Literally around a 930 heading into the Delmarva at 84, huge hit for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That means its slightly more north than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Man...if the Euro is right at 84 hours...Ocean City Md is going to be obliterated Been a while since i've seen two euro runs so exactly the same. Comparing 84 hours 00z to 102 hrs 12z ...and even down to the regional views, the contours are barely changed at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Its like 300 miles west of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That means its slightly more north than 12z? Looks to me like LF is the same - just at more of a right angle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL agreeing with the Euro maybe a bit north of that. The HWRF on the other hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 JMA agrees with EURO/NOGAPS CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 gfdl (euro track) has cat 1 sustained winds at 950mb over all of nj spreading north to long island http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/2012102600-sandy18l/slp16.png http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/2012102600-sandy18l/slp17.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 gfdl (euro track) has cat 1 sustained winds at 950mb over all of nj spreading north to long islandhttp://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/2012102600-sandy18l/slp16.png http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/2012102600-sandy18l/slp17.png It looks like there is an enhanced low level jet or something that's going to run well to the NE of the system. Thus, even with a Euro track, our area would still get significant winds. Sandy also looks kinda ragged right now and its wind field is expanding and its core doesn't appear to have as strong of winds. Hopefully the phasing fixes that, or perhaps we're in another scenario where some synoptic enhancement well removed from the core of the storm is where the strongest winds will be. Though of course the GFDL does keep its core of winds pretty strong. The latest VDM does show that its warm core is still very much in tact, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It looks like there is an enhanced low level jet or something that's going to run well to the NE of the system. Thus, even with a Euro track, our area would still get significant winds. Sandy also looks kinda ragged right now and its wind field is expanding and its core doesn't appear to have as strong of winds. Hopefully the phasing fixes that, or perhaps we're in another scenario where some synoptic enhancement well removed from the core of the storm is where the strongest winds will be. Though of course the GFDL does keep its core of winds pretty strong. I'm assuming this track also is problematic for surge as well with the southerly winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm assuming this track also is problematic for surge as well with the southerly winds? It certainly would. Not as bad though as the 18z GFS "worst case scenario" track of it hitting North/Central NJ on a west of north heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It certainly would. Not as bad though as the 18z GFS "worst case scenario" track of it hitting North/Central NJ on a west of north heading. Thanks! Wasn't sure what to think with the landfall point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Difficult in this scenario to avoid placing all faith in Euro and abandoning the wayward problem children, but the 40-20-20-20 concept now gives New York City landfall about as discussed six hours ago. If we assume that GEM has lost the plot and go with a more realistic Long Island landfall for that model, the consensus shifts back to the Asbury Park landfall of previous discussion. Intensity estimates are now also beginning to waver or diverge. That trend would cause me to give 948 mbs as new consensus for pre-landfall low point. Given the sort of divergence now visible in model output, I would submit that rapid acceleration has to be considered as a slight risk in the 5% category. Have not seen any model illustrating this but you would have to think that in this volatile setup, any possible outcome must be held in the deck until we see the sort of model consensus that was almost available at 12z. Clearly there will be a high impact end result and I would currently suggest the chances are something like this -- 10% NC, 25% southern VA, 50% e MD-DE, 70% NJ, NYC, w LI, 50% e LI CT, 30% RI se MA, 10% ME-NS. But you can't 70% evacuate or 90% stay put, so this is more of a background aid to decision making than a plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 JMA agrees with EURO/NOGAPS CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif That is from 12Z. JMA goes out to 72 hours on the 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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