user13 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This scenario would devastate the north shore of li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Crazy how it can turn on a dime like that and come right back at us. Still fairly large differences with the Euro/ensembles on how fast the capture happens, where and how far Sandy can try an escape. This would be better for south shore for surge & wind though no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Compromising does not always yield the correct or more correct solution. I know weenies like to think that because in this case compromising would produce a New York Harbor solution but I'd refrain from taking model track averages at this point. Obviously the GFS is having some issues with it's fairly large changes from run to run. The Euro tonight will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This would be better for south shore for surge & wind though no? Maybe, the more winds can stay offshore, the better. But it would still be terrible for the Sound area. Regardless, winds look to be ferocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Using Raleigh maps from 120-126 it then moves due south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It pretty much stalls over us and then heads back out NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So gfs is still kind of all over the place I thought the t.v. said at 6pm that it was coming around to the euro did I misunderstand the t.v. Or im I just all confused?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 To me, the GFS could be going back to its pattern of trying to escape Sandy too fast, and keeping the blocking too weak. But we're still a long ways out from a final track on this. I'd say anyone up to Cape Cod is still in the game for a direct hit. Most likely I'd say is Montauk to Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 00z Nogaps @ 84 hrs 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The nogaps has almost had the same solution for the last couple of days give or take 50 miles at least it seems that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS has just been so inconsistent from run to run it's hard to give it much weight. The Euro seems to be moving further and further SW on each run. Really makes you wonder if we end up with a run or two into Virgina or maybe even North Carolina at this point. Luckily we still have a few more days to get this all sorted out. I did think that after the 12z/18z runs today that we were heading towards somewhat of consensus but now I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS has just been so inconsistent from run to run it's hard to give it much weight. The Euro seems to be moving further and further SW on each run. Really makes you wonder if we end up with a run or two into Virgina or maybe even North Carolina at this point. Luckily we still have a few more days to get this all sorted out. I did think that after the 12z/18z runs today that we were heading towards somewhat of consensus but now I'm not so sure. I think the trend on the Euro tonight will help us out alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The nogaps has almost had the same solution for the last couple of days give or take 50 miles at least it seems that way This run is a tad SW and very Euro esque. One thing seems to be clear when looking at QPF fields, and it hasn't really mattered which model you look at, most of the heavy precip ends up on the western side and I'm starting to wonder if we actually don't end up with that much rain. Of course that's assuming this thing follows the NHC forecasted track and we don't get a more direct landfall. Below is the QPF through hr 180 on the 00z GFS. Notice the sharp cutoff on precip north of where the center comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GGEM is a whiff -- very far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 0z GGEM is really weird. Enlogated low in the Atlantic. Raining from NYC northward for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM looks like yesterdays GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM. Swing and a near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So basically the models are all over the place and this thing could actually go out to sea still or make a landfall in the Carolinas thought at 6pm they were saying the models were starting to converge on a salution I guess tonights models changed that idea hopefully the morning models will come back into better agreement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 0z Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I got a headache. Too....much.....mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The frame prior: http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The frame prior: http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif Looks like a NYC/LI landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So basically the models are all over the place and this thing could actually go out to sea still or make a landfall in the Carolinas thought at 6pm they were saying the models were starting to converge on a salution I guess tonights models changed that idea hopefully the morning models will come back into better agreement.. To much model hugging going on. Id say 80 percent chance of a landfall somewhere in Jersey... And regardless of exact landfall this is not pure tropical system there will not be an eye and the strongest ind will be displaced most likely 100 miles or so from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 are there any sights to get the 108 hr ukie or only 24 hour intervals, would love to see 108 hr ukie position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 0z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro is the key here. As long as the operational and ensembles stay the course I'll lean towards that solution with a slight blending heavily favored towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I got a headache. Too....much.....mayhem. All we need now is for the 00z Euro to go OTS, then the cycle is complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 All we need now is for the 00z Euro to go OTS, then the cycle is complete. The Euro should go near the NOGAPS so at least there'll be a solid consensus for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 To much model hugging going on. Id say 80 percent chance of a landfall somewhere in Jersey... And regardless of exact landfall this is not pure tropical system there will not be an eye and the strongest ind will be displaced most likely 100 miles or so from the center. thank you! this is what i was alluding to before with the blending comment. you hit the nail right on the head. the classic center/eyewall landfall point is more relevant for pure tropical systems, not a system like we're about to see with Sandy's transition... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The Euro should go near the NOGAPS so at least there'll be a solid consensus for the night. I think it will be a little more north since the ensemble mean was north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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