Snow_Miser Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Extremely FWIW since this is the 84 hour nam, but it's 6z run shows a c nj-NYC landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So if it hits VA like the euro suggest what would the impacts be up here in the nyc metro im just assuming they would be less then they were if it hit jersy like earlier thought!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Heard that the 00z ECM ENS were about the same as the 12z ECM ENS yesterday. Has a landfall around C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 00z GGEM ensembles would suggest that the 00z GGEM depiction is probably a bit too far north: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep12096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS is quicker and west at 39hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 @ 57hr its still slightly faster and a bit NW of previous run. Trough in Central US is quicker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 @ 63 looks like 0z same time frame except Sandy is 12mb weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Deepening quickly on the 6z GFS at hour 90. Pressure is sub 964. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The only reason why the euro is the only model that's well south right now is because it has a much stronger block. 6z gfs has a much weaker block and its still well north of the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This outcome looks like it's going to be a blend of the 12z and 18z runs from yesterday. Solid storm heading for the jersey shore/NYC at hour 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The Euro is unwavering and the majority of other models are really shifting around. In the winter we all know what model we'd be following at this point in time. 12z Euro will be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Landfall nyc on 06z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 6z GFS landfall along south coast of LI and then heads due west into Jersey....Then Southwest to Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Landfall nyc on 06zthe gfs Another run, another solution. I fully expect 12z to make a landfall anywhere but NYC. It isn't sure on how to handle the strength of the block. Euro has the highest verification scores for 500mb anomalies. Is there any evidence that the Euro is overdoing the strength of this feature? It will be a major win or fail for the model if it holds steady or yields to the other globals when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 6z GFS landfall along south coast of LI and then heads due west into Jersey....Then Southwest to Philly then goes back over NYC again and stalls..incredible..long duration 3 days of tropical storm winds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm pretty sure we can agree somewhere between the Delmarva to NYC at this point. I'm starting to agree more on a euro like NW track than the hook that GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The only reason why the euro is the only model that's well south right now is because it has a much stronger block. 6z gfs has a much weaker block and its still well north of the euro "The Euro is the only model that's well south"? Disagree with that, although agree on the reading of the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Seems to me with each passing run of the various models and there ensembles we are slowly narrowing down to more percise consenses. We are not there yet but, as of now, I think we can limit the most likely area of landfall / direct impact from the Delmarva to LI. South or north of there seems less and less likely to me. Obviously that stretch I have mentioned is still quite large and impacts in any specific locale would differ significantly with various detailed tracks through that range. Like with any tropical, or in this case hybrid / sub tropcial, system making landfall those near and to the right of lanfall will feel the brunt of the surge / wave action / coastal flooding issues. Wind impacts will be more spread out due to an expanding windfield but again those specifics are yet to be determined. And thirdly the inland flooding threat from heavy rains is very real and will likely become, as it usually does, the big story unless the coastal flooding / surge possibilites reach the full potential one would expect based on current modeling. Regardless of specific details in any one locale this is a high to potentially extreme impact event over a large and densely populated region. State, County & local OEM officials have some serious and difficult decisions to make during the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 To me it doesn't matter very much if this makes landfall in S NJ or DE/Delmarva. This isn't a tightly wound hurricane with winds decreasing quickly away from the eye. You could definitely see prolific wind gusts well away, possibly even into New England with the southern tracks we have. And those winds will continue to pile in water over a very long period of time into a lot of the bays and the LI Sound. The worst would be a NW heading storm rather than a due west heading storm, but either scenario would still be very bad. The only real way people on the South Shore or NJ coast escape huge impact is if we see landfall NE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomWH Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I haven't seen any estimate on storm surge yet. Is it too soon to get any ideas on how much surge to expect on the high tides let say from Cape Cod to Southern New Jersey? Since i live on the shore in West Haven CT I also was interested in surge for the CT coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro ensemble mean is north of the op. The GFS and GEFS are the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 HPC prelim outlook looks nasty. 965 right over the jersey shore. Great disco as well. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Tropical Storm Force Winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It already looks subtropical at least, definitely won't be a typical hurricane so hopefully people realize this will be a huge system with impacts well away from the center. Even a delmarva landfall would affect us significantly. I'm interested to see what happens once it phases, never seen anything like what's going to unfold, should be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 00z ECMWF ENS and the 06z GEFS ENS look almost identical. There may be a 10-20 mile difference between them, but they both have the general landfall into NJ with the mean having a minimum pressure of around 970 mb when it makes landfall at hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 8 am NHC advisory showed that Sandy decelerated further overnight. Sandy is now tracking NW at just 10 mph. Its slower forward motion is increasing the likelihood that it will be captured farther south. While the GFS/GFS ensembles can't be dismissed just yet and Sandy could still make landfall somewhere from the VA Capes to northern NJ, my guess is that the Delmarva to southern NJ offers the highest probability at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 8 am NHC advisory showed that Sandy decelerated further overnight. Sandy is now tracking NW at just 10 mph. Its slower forward motion is increasing the likelihood that it will be captured farther south. While the GFS/GFS ensembles can't be dismissed just yet and Sandy could still make landfall somewhere from the VA Capes to northern NJ, my guess is that the Delmarva to southern NJ offers the highest probability at this time. But Don, I believe that most of the models were slowing Sandy down near this point anyway (not sure to the extent)...I haven't checked the position wrt the models at this point. Can you clarify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 8 am NHC advisory showed that Sandy decelerated further overnight. Sandy is now tracking NW at just 10 mph. Its slower forward motion is increasing the likelihood that it will be captured farther south. While the GFS/GFS ensembles can't be dismissed just yet and Sandy could still make landfall somewhere from the VA Capes to northern NJ, my guess is that the Delmarva to southern NJ offers the highest probability at this time. The Virginia Capes are too south of a possibility IMO. How intense Sandy also determines when it will make that westward turn, as well as the forward motion of the trough and how strong the energy is rounding the base of the trough. The intensity of the ridge by Greenland is also another factor, which has been trending weaker on the model runs, which would support a slightly north track. I can see anywhere from the Delmarva to NYC as a possible landfalling point for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 But Don, I believe that most of the models were slowing Sandy down near this point anyway (not sure to the extent)...I haven't checked the position wrt the models at this point. Can you clarify? That's what I thought as well. Even the further north models had it slowing around this timeframe, and that was reflected in the NHC track for the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I haven't seen any estimate on storm surge yet. Is it too soon to get any ideas on how much surge to expect on the high tides let say from Cape Cod to Southern New Jersey? Since i live on the shore in West Haven CT I also was interested in surge for the CT coast. Early to say but estimates I've seen range from 6-10 feet. The full moon could certainly exacerbate things and remember, that doesn't include waves on top of the surge. That would certainly flood a lot of people. The center of my town is I think 9-10 feet above sea level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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