Hurricane Isaac Banter Thread, Part 2

[Sunny and Warm]

There was short term motion in pretty much every direction, it doesn't make sense to report each of those. Reporting a longer term smooth motion isn't perfect, but imo it would be worse to constantly update with various directions.

while you are correct in what you wrote,

Did we have wobbles back and forth: YES

Did we have a near stall for several hours: YES

Did Isaac travel NW at 8mph for six hours as stated by the NHC: NOOOO

When local Mets start leaving the reservation during a hurricane because the NHC motion is beyond belief, then we have a problem. If the NHC is going to be more scientifically accurate with TC strength (which I applaud), then they should be of equal accuracy with speed and direction.

[NJDEVIL]

There was short term motion in pretty much every direction, it doesn't make sense to report each of those. Reporting a longer term smooth motion isn't perfect, but imo it would be worse to constantly update with various directions.

I have a much larger problem with the reported 8MPH movement, instead the advisories should have been reading "nearly stationary" because that was in fact the case, and is still pretty much true to this hour.

[ksstormhunter]

15Z SmartCast Update:

Mobile: Winds 25-30mph, gusting to near 40mph through 22Z, then staying in the low 30’s through 15Z. Rainfall accumulations of 2.75” additional through 30/14Z

Keesler/Gulfport: Winds 30-35mph gust to 55mph through 30/14Z. Peak gusts around 62mph possible. Rainfall accumulations of 3.6” additional through 30/14Z

Houma Terrebone: Wind 40-45mph gust to 58mph through 30/14Z. Rainfall accumulations of 2.6” additional through 30/14Z

Boothville: Winds 55-60mph gust to 75-80mph through the period. Rainfall accumulation of 2.6” additional through 30/14Z

Baton Rouge: Winds 40-50mph gust to 55mph through the period. Rainfall accumulation of 4.7” additional through 30/14Z

New Orleans: Winds 40-45mph gust to 70-75mph possible til 03Z, then 35-40mph gust to 55-60mph through 30/14Z. Rainfall of an additional 5.4” possible through 30/14Z

[Clinch Leatherwood]

great post. Many can call people who don't leave stupid, but in many cases, they have no means to leave and often are too fearful of leaving to lose what little they do own. They are desperate and we shouldn't superimpose our standard of living/decision-making on to them.

Well true but the government was prepared and they could have called 911 and gotten out which is what the Sheriff was just saying...don't put his people in danger because you wait too long. There will always be the 1% that won't leave and we shouldn't use their rescue as justification to hammer authorities/NHC etc. Some people won't leave even if they owned an airplane, hovercraft and helicopter.

[NJDEVIL]

No major changes on the 12z GFS, should a due Westward movement continue, it seems likely that the center will re-emerge for a few hours over the open water, in any event, Isaac continues to hold it's own, it may not be intensifying because of the land interaction, but I see no real signs of weakining, other than the fact that the pressure has come up slightly. It will be interesting to see if the NHC is quick to downgrade this to a Tropical Storm at the next update.

[Ed Lizard]

Looking at the storm report thread, I'm glad the people that ignore mandatory evacuation warnings at least have cell phones and Twitter accounts.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

No major changes on the 12z GFS, should a due Westward movement continue, it seems likely that the center will re-emerge for a few hours over the open water, in any event, Isaac continues to hold it's own, it may not be intensifying because of the land interaction, but I see no real signs of weakining, other than the fact that the pressure has come up slightly. It will be interesting to see if the NHC is quick to downgrade this to a Tropical Storm at the next update.

It should be downgraded. There hasn't been a hurricane wind report in hours. It's not producing hurricane winds, JMHO.

Looking at the storm report thread, I'm glad the people that ignore mandatory evacuation warnings at least have cell phones and Twitter accounts.

Yes, rescue via Facebook. That kind of nullifies the "they don't have the means to get away" when they're using tech devices to use facebook for evacuations versus 911.

[BeauDodson]

Amazing to wake up this morning and see this system still churning over the same area. Would love to see some accurate rainfall totals from the area being hit the hardest. Quite amazing.

[wxsniss]

It's interesting how slow the images like those in the Reports thread take to reach mainstream media.

As far as New Orleans, we are still in some of the worst rainbands of the storm so I suspect we are still > 12 hours away from assessment/recovery mode. The best data we can get is from isolated twitter posts... no helicopter shots at least before tomorrow.

Also: Drudge for days was hyping this storm. Check it out now, the story is buried almost to the bottom and you'd have no idea anything was wrong.

[Sunny and Warm]

It should be downgraded. There hasn't been a hurricane wind report in hours. It's not producing hurricane winds, JMHO.

Yes, rescue via Facebook. That kind of nullifies the "they don't have the means to get away" when they're using tech devices to use facebook for evacuations versus 911.

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not really. It just means they have a screwed up value system from my POV. Some people on welfare have more gizmos than I even know exist. It's an excursion from reality in many cases.

[feloniousq]

What is the Plaquemines President smoking ordering a mandatory evacuation in the MIDDLE of a storm? Shoulda been done days ago, guy.

Starting to think Billy just likes to see himself on TV.

[SmokeEater]

What is the Plaquemines President smoking ordering a mandatory evacuation in the MIDDLE of a storm? Shoulda been done days ago, guy.

Starting to think Billy just likes to see himself on TV.

There has been a mandatory evac for that Parish since Monday.

[Lady Di]

Evacuations were ordered days ago. Let's give the guy a break They are trying to save lives down there right now.

[usedtobe]

Amazing to wake up this morning and see this system still churning over the same area. Would love to see some accurate rainfall totals from the area being hit the hardest. Quite amazing.

With strong winds we may never get accurate rainfall totals. radar may be the best measurements/estimates we get

[feloniousq]

There has been a mandatory evac for that Parish since Monday.

For the part of the parish east of the river. The evac announced last hour is for the western side.

[atownwxwatcher]

Evacuations were ordered days ago. Let's give the guy a break They are trying to save lives down there right now.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2012/08/mandatory_evacuation_ordered_i.html

Published: Wednesday, August 29, 2012, 11:45 AM

Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser has ordered a mandatory evacuation on the west bank from the Oakville Floodgate on Hwy 23 to Venice. He will hold a press conference at noon at the Government Building at 8056 Hwy 23 in Belle Chasse to discuss new situations developing in the parish including the recent evacuation order.

[Dunkman]

Keeping it at a hurricane makes sense I guess with lots of 75 knot winds still around 3k feet on radar. I was kind of expecting it to come down to 70 but obviously it doesn't matter.

[Ian]

The whole NHC debate is stupid. Any local met "slamming" them probably sucks. Their forecast was as good or better than any other I saw for Isaac.

[Lady Di]

http://www.nola.com/..._ordered_i.html

Published: Wednesday, August 29, 2012, 11:45 AM

Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser has ordered a mandatory evacuation on the west bank from the Oakville Floodgate on Hwy 23 to Venice. He will hold a press conference at noon at the Government Building at 8056 Hwy 23 in Belle Chasse to discuss new situations developing in the parish including the recent evacuation order.

I read the previous post of this. Simply responding to another poster who I think thought this evac order was just ordered today when it was not. Not going to argue over whether it was voluntary or mandatory. Those folks were asked to move and most did seek shelter in that parish on safer ground.

[am19psu]

The whole NHC debate is stupid. Any local met "slamming" them probably sucks. Their forecast was as good or better than any other I saw for Isaac.

[feloniousq]

I read the previous post of this. Simply responding to another poster who I think thought this evac order was just ordered today when it was not. Not going to argue over whether it was voluntary or mandatory. Those folks were asked to move and most did seek shelter in that parish on safer ground.

I'm well aware that a voluntary evacuation order was in place, thank you. I'm curious to know what possible wisdom there could be in issuing a new mandatory evacuation order at noon on Wednesday when 1) few of the targeted residents can likely hear the news anyway, and 2) storm conditions do not permit safe travel.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

I read the previous post of this. Simply responding to another poster who I think thought this evac order was just ordered today when it was not. Not going to argue over whether it was voluntary or mandatory. Those folks were asked to move and most did seek shelter in that parish on safer ground.

This post makes me want to punch kittens.

[jburns]

I'm well aware that a voluntary evacuation order was in place, thank you. I'm curious to know what possible wisdom there could be in issuing a new mandatory evacuation order at noon on Wednesday when 1) few of the targeted residents can likely hear the news anyway, and 2) storm conditions do not permit safe travel.

I would imagine they expect a levee failure that will put several feet of water into the area in a very short time. Sometimes there are no good choices.

[Dunkman]

I'm well aware that a voluntary evacuation order was in place, thank you. I'm curious to know what possible wisdom there could be in issuing a new mandatory evacuation order at noon on Wednesday when 1) few of the targeted residents can likely hear the news anyway, and 2) storm conditions do not permit safe travel.

My understanding is that they are going door to door and picking people up in buses.

[WhiteoutMD]

Storm surge question ? With the slow movement, when the first surge came in last night and another high tide coming ( I dont know when) will the flooding get worse with the next high tide?

Can someone post the times for the next high tides?

[Lady Di]

I'm well aware that a voluntary evacuation order was in place, thank you. I'm curious to know what possible wisdom there could be in issuing a new mandatory evacuation order at noon on Wednesday when 1) few of the targeted residents can likely hear the news anyway, and 2) storm conditions do not permit safe travel.

Well I really can't answer that. I can only assume they are trying to get those residents left out of harms way. Should the coast guard or whomever have some who still resist perhaps that's why the order now.

[Dunkman]

Does anyone know where the Oakville flood gate is? I can't seem to find it on a map...just curious.

[thunderbird12]

Regarding the controversy about NHC's motion estimates, here are the 2-hour motions (in mph) since 10pm last night based on NHC's position estimates, along with the motion NHC specified in each update:

10pm-12am: W 9 (actual motion), WNW 7 (NHC motion)

12am-2am: stationary, stationary

2am-4am: WNW 17, WNW 8

4am-6am: N 7, NW 6

6am-8am: N 3, NW 6

8am-10am: WNW 7, NW 6

10am-12pm: NW 4, NW 6

There was only one 2-hour period where Isaac was truly stationary, and NHC actually specified the motion as stationary when that occurred (they may have broken their own rule there, since the 6-hour motion was not stationary). Isaac has actually traveled more distance than NHC's motion estimates would imply in the last 14 hours, though that is mainly due to lots of wobbling versus traveling in a straight line.

I have no problem at all with NHC's motion estimates. I think it would only be misleading to report every wobble as the current motion. I think the people who got upset about it simply lost some temporal perspective while closely following the storm in real time (which I was guilty of as well). Looking at a long-term radar loop since around 00Z last night shows a pretty definitive, albeit slow, NW movement with lots of wobbling.

[Sunny and Warm]

Regarding the controversy about NHC's motion estimates, here are the 2-hour motions (in mph) since 10pm last night based on NHC's position estimates, along with the motion NHC specified in each update:

10pm-12am: W 9 (actual motion), WNW 7 (NHC motion)

12am-2am: stationary, stationary

2am-4am: WNW 17, WNW 8

4am-6am: N 7, NW 6

6am-8am: N 3, NW 6

8am-10am: WNW 7, NW 6

10am-12pm: NW 4, NW 6

There was only one 2-hour period where Isaac was truly stationary, and NHC actually specified the motion as stationary when that occurred (they may have broken their own rule there, since the 6-hour motion was not stationary). Isaac has actually traveled more distance than NHC's motion estimates would imply in the last 14 hours, though that is mainly due to lots of wobbling versus traveling in a straight line.

I have no problem at all with NHC's motion estimates. I think it would only be misleading to report every wobble as the current motion. I think the people who got upset about it simply lost some temporal perspective while closely following the storm in real time (which I was guilty of as well). Looking at a long-term radar loop since around 00Z last night shows a pretty definitive, albeit slow, NW movement with lots of wobbling.

while I am sure your post is accurate, most peple complaining about the NHC track speed and heading were generally referring to the 5pm to 11pm time frame or thereabouts last evening when Isaac stalled and drifted W or WSW, which was confirmed by the HH's, and the NHC still issued two straight statements of NW at 8mph.

Maybe these posts should form their own thread so as not to clutter up this one.

[mike2010]

I'm with the others agreeing NHC should of emphasized the slow drift / stall scenario more.

Several models for the last few days showed this scenario, but they still ignored.

When you see from one model run to the next, the forward speed continuing to decrease...common sense then needs to be used to take into effect frictional effects of land...which usually result in additional slowing down.

maybe they only understand their 'hurricane model' language. Several non-hurricane models were more accurate with the slow drift / stall scenario. (NAM & HRRR to name a few)