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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part II


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18z BAMM track would be a really nice one if the dang TUTT wasn't still parked over the CATL. Tracks just north of the islands, then the high builds in overhead forcing this westward.

SHIPs output coupled with the BAMM track shows a very bleak future, but we'll see what happens. MJO and CCKW are forecast to rule the Atlantic.

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I still remain fairly cautious about the wave that is expected to leave Africa. Its expected to be substantially far north when it leaves Africa. This leaves it very susceptible to SAL / Mid-Latitude dry air intrusions. Despite both the models being agressive with development, I'm still hesitant to be all gun ho. Also, it seems fairly unlikely that this system will be able to track across the Atlantic and strike the mainland at such a high latitude.

If you want to hang you hopes on a system, 92L is probably the better candidate. I find it rather funny that nobody wants another Ernesto, but that is the perfect track for a substancial tropical cyclone. Ernesto was a struggle because it battled unfavorable atmospheric conditions (in the East Caribbean). While this system might also have a similar marginal environment, it has a much better chance at making it across the pond in comparison to the wave yet to emerge off the coast of Africa.

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Oughta be a cherry, IMHO, looking at same image with lat/longs on, awfully close to being a closed low. NHC obviously disagrees, and are the paid experts. I don't even see 12Z GFDL/HWRF guidance...

Just noticed that a recon mission has been tasked for it already.

Might see a nice bump in percentages at 8pm.

(Position is based on the 72 hour TAFB position)

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

3. ADDTIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST

AT 11/1800Z NEAR 13N 56W.

LATEST_ETropics_VIS.jpg

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...

If you want to hang you hopes on a system, 92L is probably the better candidate. I find it rather funny that nobody wants another Ernesto, but that is the perfect track for a substancial tropical cyclone. Ernesto was a struggle because it battled unfavorable atmospheric conditions (in the East Caribbean). While this system might also have a similar marginal environment, it has a much better chance at making it across the pond in comparison to the wave yet to emerge off the coast of Africa.

GFS and Canadian of a system following an Ernesto-ish track but apparently encountering hostile conditions in the Caribbean would seem to hold open the opportunity for a weak-ish system to gain latitude (towards the US) beyond Day 8.

FWIW, Canadian develops screaming eagle over Hispaniola into a significant storm that slams the Florida Panhandle, which might be why it is hostile to 92L.

ETA: Canadian doesn't seem to be spinning up quite as many spurious cyclones as years past. Not sure what they changed

Bonus question- has their been any appreciable upgrade to the Nogaps since 1998 (with a small physics tweak in 2003?). Shouldn't the Navy have a decent model for the tropics?

post-138-0-53494800-1344456084_thumb.gif

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Bonus question- has their been any appreciable upgrade to the Nogaps since 1998 (with a small physics tweak in 2003?). Shouldn't the Navy have a decent model for the tropics?

All of their effort seems to be in COAMPS-TC; for my job I read USN news and press releases every day, and there are periodic ones talking about how awesome COAMPS-TC is.

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92 L is going to have some tough times with westerly and southwesterly shear.

Good and bad. A weaker system is less easily recurved by passing mid-latitude troughs. But if it does develop, I have noticed a bad habit of systems to be sort of steered by shear, as the low level center keeps trying to reform under the convection, which tends to usually push them in the downshear direction.

Assuming shear isn't so hostile it doesn't develop at all.

FWIW, 18Z GFS much less enthusiastic about monster African wave than previous runs, although the run is only out 6 days so far... And steering looks favorable if 92L remains in any state at all and doesn't plow straight into Central America or the lower Yucatan (as it appears to be about to do on the 18Z GFS) to come Northwestward in the Gulf.

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So GFS says 92L is no threat to the USA because of strong ridging. Ernesto was no threat to the USA because of strong ridging. And whatever forms off Africa is no threat to the USA because of strong troughs. Amazing how lucky the USA has been for 7 years. Will this ever end?

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So GFS says 92L is no threat to the USA because of strong ridging. Ernesto was no threat to the USA because of strong ridging. And whatever forms off Africa is no threat to the USA because of strong troughs. Amazing how lucky the USA has been for 7 years. Will this ever end?

No, actually.

GFS has been persistent that 92L develops, and then weakens or dies in the Caribbean.

On the 18Z, the remnant low level vorticity has emerged into the lower BoC. 700 mb and 850 mb suggest a Northwest path beyond that.

You may not remember Gustav or Ike. Gustav, I believe, had the highest wind gust ever measured with a TC in Baton Rouge.

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THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS

BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THUNDERSTORM

ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF

THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A

MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

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Wish-casting at its worst...

Oh please, you have NO idea...

In 2000-2001 there was a guy in Florida with an "East Coast Tropical Weather" website that claimed to be running his own "model" (actually drawn with a paint program) that showed every single TC hitting Florida. He had an avid following on the bulletin boards back then.

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:lmao: This is the best weeniecast(er) I ever heard! "Probably worse than Irene!" haha who is this so I can follow him?!

I only know about him from his Youtube account. I found him through his prelim winter forecasts, which are almost as bad as his tropical updates. Would be interesting if he was registered to this forum though....

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Good chance he is an weather forum, maybe even an AmWx member, and judging from the accent, probably NYC or SNE subforums. 50/50 he majors in met when he goes to college. That could have been me if YouTube had been invented in 1976. My Dad worked with mets at the airline (including a Texas legend, the late Harold Taft, at DAL before Dad moved back to New York) and told me they weren't paid well.

Oddly enough, I never really developed an accent living on Long Island, but my older sister sounds a little like Linda Richman. They had accents when I moved to Texas over 30 years ago, but now, other than Nolan Ryan, you don't here hear accents down here anymore. Even Southern accents are almost gone. Ward Burton still has one, and Dale Junior, just a hint. I think its is the influence of TV.

Back to weather, SSD now has .gif loops, which makes hotlinking invest satellite loops fun and easy. I uploaded two Ernesto loops earlier today, for posterity, but for now, a hotlink.

rbtop-animated.gif

Besides 92L, noticing a couple of the 18Z GFS perturbations are spinning up the big blob by Hispaniola the 12Z Canadian developed. CIMSS vorticity, what there is, is on top of Hispaniola, and CIMSS shear is between 20 and 30 knots, so that doesn't seem likely anytime soon.

Their/There/They're edit...

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You may not remember Gustav or Ike. Gustav, I believe, had the highest wind gust ever measured with a TC in Baton Rouge

If you thought Gustav and Ike were bad then I can't fathom what you would say had they developed a singular inner core with no double wind maximas. Hurricanes threatening the USA have had continuous eyewall replacement cycles induced in the days leading up to landfall.
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Good chance he is an weather forum, maybe even an AmWx member, and judging from the accent, probably NYC or SNE subforums. 50/50 he majors in met when he goes to college. That could have been me if YouTube had been invented in 1976. My Dad worked with mets at the airline (including a Texas legend, the late Harold Taft, at DAL before Dad moved back to New York) and told me they weren't paid well.

Oddly enough, I never really developed an accent living on Long Island, but my older sister sounds a little like Linda Richman. They had accents when I moved to Texas over 30 years ago, but now, other than Nolan Ryan, you don't here hear accents down here anymore. Even Southern accents are almost gone. Ward Burton still has one, and Dale Junior, just a hint. I think its is the influence of TV.

Back to weather, SSD now has .gif loops, which makes hotlinking invest satellite loops fun and easy. I uploaded two Ernesto loops earlier today, for posterity, but for now, a hotlink.

rbtop-animated.gif

Besides 92L, noticing a couple of the 18Z GFS perturbations are spinning up the big blob by Hispaniola the 12Z Canadian developed. CIMSS vorticity, what there is, is on top of Hispaniola, and CIMSS shear is between 20 and 30 knots, so that doesn't seem likely anytime soon.

Their/There/They're edit...

Pretty fast improvement, I'm impressed with how quick the outflow and spiral bands outside the storm formed.

If it has a small core it's a TS already but the Tutt will probably be it's fate in 72hrs.

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:lmao: This is the best weeniecast(er) I ever heard! "Probably worse than Irene!" haha who is this so I can follow him?!

I didn't know Fran Drescher did hurricane videos.

All kidding aside, I've been doing these videos since May 2005 so I can't put down fellow weather enthusiasts.

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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1110 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED

ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS

CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ORGANIZING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER...AND

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT

OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM

HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

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If you thought Gustav and Ike were bad then I can't fathom what you would say had they developed a singular inner core with no double wind maximas. Hurricanes threatening the USA have had continuous eyewall replacement cycles induced in the days leading up to landfall.

You said seven years. You didn't specify majors or anything else.

So GFS says 92L is no threat to the USA because of strong ridging. Ernesto was no threat to the USA because of strong ridging. And whatever forms off Africa is no threat to the USA because of strong troughs. Amazing how lucky the USA has been for 7 years. Will this ever end?

You miss corpses floating in New Orleans?

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I didn't know Fran Drescher did hurricane videos.

All kidding aside, I've been doing these videos since May 2005 so I can't put down fellow weather enthusiasts.

I really enjoy your videos, this guy however is a total joke. It's like watching HM (the accuweather one) when the models show a snowstorm in 10 days.
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