andyhb Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 keep an eye on the far eastern atlantic. GFS shows a storm right over cape verde in a week. florence is showing up se of bermuda. Models showing storms around the CV Islands is common place this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 If not for the band off the Cape going the wrong way, I'd say radar was seeing a closed circulation at some level East of MLB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 If not for the band off the Cape going the wrong way, I'd say radar was seeing a closed circulation at some level East of MLB. I noticed that as well. It might not even cross over florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 At least we have this and it's not a GGEM ensemble . GFS has shown an active NW Atlantic in the long range for several runs now and I see storms on a few ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 i wonder if thats the storm the GFS shows over cape verde in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 i wonder if thats the storm the GFS shows over cape verde in a few days. It is. Impressive anticyclone over that one. Although Cape verde waters aren't that warm and most of them are Nuttin but Fish storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 it has to be better than ernie and flo, lol. GFS has been consistent withthis for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 In fact now, most models show a strong wave emerging off the coast of Africa on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Voodoo country, but the 12z GFS does in the long range show a rather intense TC north of the Greater Antilles...just something to watch for possible continuity in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 i assume it shows that the central atlantic trough is gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 The one coming off Africa on Thursday will be followed for 2 weeks according the past few runs of the GFS. Could be a threat to ultimately end The Seven Year Streak of 0 US major hurricane landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 The one coming off Africa on Thursday will be followed for 2 weeks according the past few runs of the GFS. Could be a threat to ultimately end The Seven Year Streak of 0 US major hurricane landfalls. Cannot believe it has been that long, wow....Hurricane Wilma was the last major hurricane to make landfall in the United States; and the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic; within the most active tropical season ever. It seems it's all or nothing with major hurricane landfalls. Nonetheless, Hurricane Andrew was a strong landfall in a inactive year; among others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 I'd certainly like something less maddening to track than Ernesto, considering the severe weather situation has been pretty lackluster since mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Cannot believe it has been that long, wow....Hurricane Wilma was the last major hurricane to make landfall in the United States; and the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic; within the most active tropical season ever. It seems it's all or nothing with major hurricane landfalls. Nonetheless, Hurricane Andrew was a strong landfall in a inactive year; among others. The previous longest US major hurricane drought was from 1900-1906. It's a remarkable streak that might never be broken. And considering we're in a hyper active hurricane era makes it even more impressive. Part of the good luck has been the uncanny ability of hurricanes to undergo perfectly timed eyewall replacement cycles just prior to striking the US, thus lowering the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 The previous longest US major hurricane drought was from 1900-1906. It's a remarkable streak that might never be broken. And considering we're in a hyper active hurricane era makes it even more impressive. Part of the good luck has been the uncanny ability of hurricanes to undergo perfectly timed eyewall replacement cycles just prior to striking the US, thus lowering the winds. There is no real evidence of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 About half the 18Z GFS ensembles have a 1004 mb or stronger low East to Northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles in 10 days, and some seem to have the trough far enough West or sharp enough than an ECUSA threat is at least somewhat possible beyond that. 12Z GFS ensembles similar. Still a couple 18Z ensembles with somewhat lower pressure in the BoC in 10 days, but less than the 12Z GFS. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Operational GFS MJO looks sort of favorable, Euro even more so for activity out about then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Long-range GFS continues to suggest multiple tropical waves with a possible significant landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Long-range GFS continues to suggest multiple tropical waves with a possible significant landfall. I believe the disturbance that the GFS has picked up on is the one causing the blow-up of convection over western Niger on this satellite photo. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=Latest®ION=AFRICA&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=meteo8&SIZE=Full&DISPLAY=Single&PATH=AFRICA/NorthWest/vis_ir_background/meteo8&CURRENT=20120806.0300.msg_2.visir.bckgr.AFRICA_NorthWest.NGT.jpg&SECTOR=NorthWest& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Regarding the Cape Verde wave that the GFS has been developing for several runs by next weekend, two issues come to mind: 1) Has a TD ever developed so far north (17-18N) in the east Atlantic and gone on to impact the U.S.? In order to do so, it would need an extremely strong ridge to the north, especially if it strengthens quickly. 2) Larry (GaWx's) WSW rule. Larry found that developing systems in the E. Atlantic that move south of due west for at least 12 hours have a significantly better chance of impacting the U.S. later on. The GFS has been showing south of due west motion with this system in the E. Atlantic for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Powerful TC at the end of the model run, and a wave or depression coming off Africa.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 That previous post looks like the 12z from sun. 06z from this morning run continues with the norm the past of years in recurving anything in sight out to sea. The current long-wave pattern to me doesn't look favorable for cv waves making the long trek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Long-range GFS continues to suggest multiple tropical waves with a possible significant landfall. One underperorming storm in the Caribbean, and it is now open season for the 16 day GFS. Good thing, it is a hotlink, so we will have a new 16 day GFS each day to tease and amaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 One underperorming storm in the Caribbean, and it is now open season for the 16 day GFS. Good thing, it is a hotlink, so we will have a new 16 day GFS each day to tease and amaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Can we, you know, stop with the 384 hr GFS postings? I think we get the point... the GFS gets excited and says TCs will form in the Atlantic in late August. Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Ignoring the imminent MA landfall at the end of the post-truncation fantasy phase of the 12Z GFS, sort of, through Hour 192, the wave, potential Gordon, that would come off Africa in about 4 days, would cruise almost due West despite being near 20ºN latitude through its first four days offshore. The plausible, and the glass 5/32nds optimistic. 2 new replies. I will not be the first w/ the MA picture... ETA I'll delete the 384 MA attachment if PSUBlizz really, really wants me to. While I'm editing, potential Baltimore Basher Gordon. EDIT TWO- Use your imagination on what the GFS is threatening the MA with. GFS image deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 We should enforce a limit of nothing beyond the 192 hr GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 We should enforce a limit of nothing beyond the 192 hr GFS. I'll go back and delete the Cat 7 Gordon approaching the MA. I'll leave the Hour 192 GFS up, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 We should enforce a limit of nothing beyond the 192 hr GFS. Posted for the sake of continuity; and also because I was offended by Ed's sarcastic remarks. The tropical wave that spawns Gordon is well out into the Atlantic before Truncation. It's not something that is likely to happen but I do believe there will be a real landfall threat (anywhere in the conus). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Posted for the sake of continuity; and also because I was offended by Ed's sarcastic remarks. The tropical wave that spawns Gordon is well out into the Atlantic before Truncation. It's not something that is likely to happen but I do believe there will be a real landfall threat (anywhere in the conus). How can you say that there will be a real landfall threat from an MCS that's just entering E Mali as we speak? Especially when climo is for at least 3 out of every 4 tropical waves to fizzle out, and of those waves that do develop, more than 3 out of 4 to recurve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 It's near insane to think that a tropical wave can go so far west for exiting north of the CV islands. I've only seen a handful of tropical cyclones in history that have been able to exit north of Senegal and actually develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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