Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Interesting, WNW track from early guidance. Maybe Louisiana won't need Ernest to survive. WHXX01 KWBC 031637 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1637 UTC FRI AUG 3 2012 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912012) 20120803 1200 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 120803 1200 120804 0000 120804 1200 120805 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 24.0N 78.5W 25.3N 79.7W 26.2N 81.2W 27.2N 82.6W BAMD 24.0N 78.5W 25.2N 79.1W 26.2N 79.9W 27.2N 81.4W BAMM 24.0N 78.5W 25.0N 79.5W 25.9N 80.5W 26.8N 81.9W LBAR 24.0N 78.5W 25.4N 79.4W 26.8N 80.5W 28.1N 81.5W SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 30KTS DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 24KTS 26KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 120805 1200 120806 1200 120807 1200 120808 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 27.9N 84.5W 28.8N 87.4W 29.1N 89.4W 29.2N 91.2W BAMD 28.2N 83.1W 29.4N 86.5W 30.1N 88.9W 30.7N 89.9W BAMM 27.7N 83.5W 29.0N 86.6W 29.8N 88.8W 30.3N 90.3W LBAR 29.4N 82.3W 31.1N 83.4W 32.5N 83.6W 35.5N 83.8W SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 53KTS 59KTS DSHP 32KTS 42KTS 50KTS 46KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 24.0N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 9KT LATM12 = 22.6N LONM12 = 77.1W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 9KT LATM24 = 20.6N LONM24 = 75.1W WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 12z Euro and GFS more aggressive with 90L through the weekend, then shear it out next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 12z Euro and GFS more aggressive with 90L through the weekend, then shear it out next week. Yup. Neither are saying conditions are that great across the Atlantic for decent tropical cyclone activity. The GFS in the long range hints that things get better, while the Euro completely disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 12z Euro and GFS more aggressive with 90L through the weekend, then shear it out next week. That upper level trough that is dominating the Atlantic basin isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Season cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Season cancel? Seriously? It wasn't supposed to be a terribly active year anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Seriously? It wasn't supposed to be a terribly active year anyways. I was kidding, chill out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I was kidding, chill out. Sir, you have been obnoxious these past few days. Check out these cloud tops from 90L; this will cool you down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 miami radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 91L has a pretty chaotic convective pattern, but there some seem to be some low-level turning developing. Could be an interesting 24 hours along the Florida Coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 im wondering if both this and ernie can develop? im thinking one will and one wont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 On the other side of the Atlantic basin... 90L is clearly ready to become a TD. We might see an upgrade tonight if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 im surprised about 90L. It did the opposite of what most waves do. it didnt look that great over africa, but developed convection after getting over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 90L Update A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ISLOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Wow-- yeah. It's a fruit salad this morning. I wish all this crap could pool energies and make one, single, quality system. Well, Ernesto is looking very nice right now, 90L now has a red cherry, and 91L has been designated just east of Florida. Considering I am in Florida right now for vacation, it should be a interesting next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 Well, Ernesto is looking very nice right now, 90L now has a red cherry, and 91L has been designated just east of Florida. Considering I am in Florida right now for vacation, it should be a interesting next few days. Yep-- you could see some interesting weather. Agreed-- Ernesto's looking much better today!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Wow-- yeah. It's a fruit salad this morning. I wish all this crap could pool energies and make one, single, quality system. As long as these ho-hum systems do not ravage peak SSTs and the meat and potatoes of the TC season, it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 As long as these ho-hum systems do not ravage peak SSTs and the meat and potatoes of the TC season, it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Seriously? It wasn't supposed to be a terribly active year anyways. It shouldn't bother anyone whether we have 20 NS or two. Unless those particular #s are making /losing money, I'd rather just have one storm in a season and it be like Donna or Andrew- multiple severe landfalls. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=europe&sat=m7∏=irn several other strong waves lined up. GFS shows a possible storm off africa in a week, but coming off too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 http://tropic.ssec.w...sat=m7∏=irn several other strong waves lined up. GFS shows a possible storm off africa in a week, but coming off too far north. When do the models not show big storms coming off Africa in August? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The CV cherry has been redesignated as a TD in the ATCF database. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 When do the models not show big storms coming off Africa in August? i would say its rather rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The CV cherry has been redesignated as a TD in the ATCF database. I am thinking that TD 6 will probably remain weak, as it appears to be a relatively small system, and there is a bit of SAL in the system's path. If it remains weak, it will not curve to the north as much, as it will not be influenced by the upper level steering as much. If it remains weak, it will take a more straight path, and will be influenced by the lower level steering more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The CV cherry has been redesignated as a TD in the ATCF database. Yup, NHC thinks it may reach TS strength briefly and then fizzle... so a name waster http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/040242.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012 THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM SUNY-ALBANY. Do you think they monitor the board? Big congrats for Mike Ventrice and Co. up at SUNY-Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 NHC might have lowered 91L to 10%, but it is flaring up a little this afternoon and the circulation has become better defined. This just might be a case of too little to late as its near the Florida Coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 can it develop in the eastern gom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 can it develop in the eastern gom? Only if it can get back over open waters. Both the GFS and ECMWF have it skirting the edge, so while its not out of the question, its a low probability event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 keep an eye on the far eastern atlantic. GFS shows a storm right over cape verde in a week. florence is showing up se of bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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