Superstorm93 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 18z BAMM track would be a really nice one if the dang TUTT wasn't still parked over the CATL. Tracks just north of the islands, then the high builds in overhead forcing this westward. SHIPs output coupled with the BAMM track shows a very bleak future, but we'll see what happens. MJO and CCKW are forecast to rule the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I still remain fairly cautious about the wave that is expected to leave Africa. Its expected to be substantially far north when it leaves Africa. This leaves it very susceptible to SAL / Mid-Latitude dry air intrusions. Despite both the models being agressive with development, I'm still hesitant to be all gun ho. Also, it seems fairly unlikely that this system will be able to track across the Atlantic and strike the mainland at such a high latitude. If you want to hang you hopes on a system, 92L is probably the better candidate. I find it rather funny that nobody wants another Ernesto, but that is the perfect track for a substancial tropical cyclone. Ernesto was a struggle because it battled unfavorable atmospheric conditions (in the East Caribbean). While this system might also have a similar marginal environment, it has a much better chance at making it across the pond in comparison to the wave yet to emerge off the coast of Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Oughta be a cherry, IMHO, looking at same image with lat/longs on, awfully close to being a closed low. NHC obviously disagrees, and are the paid experts. I don't even see 12Z GFDL/HWRF guidance... Just noticed that a recon mission has been tasked for it already. Might see a nice bump in percentages at 8pm. (Position is based on the 72 hour TAFB position) I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. ADDTIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 11/1800Z NEAR 13N 56W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 ... If you want to hang you hopes on a system, 92L is probably the better candidate. I find it rather funny that nobody wants another Ernesto, but that is the perfect track for a substancial tropical cyclone. Ernesto was a struggle because it battled unfavorable atmospheric conditions (in the East Caribbean). While this system might also have a similar marginal environment, it has a much better chance at making it across the pond in comparison to the wave yet to emerge off the coast of Africa. GFS and Canadian of a system following an Ernesto-ish track but apparently encountering hostile conditions in the Caribbean would seem to hold open the opportunity for a weak-ish system to gain latitude (towards the US) beyond Day 8. FWIW, Canadian develops screaming eagle over Hispaniola into a significant storm that slams the Florida Panhandle, which might be why it is hostile to 92L. ETA: Canadian doesn't seem to be spinning up quite as many spurious cyclones as years past. Not sure what they changed Bonus question- has their been any appreciable upgrade to the Nogaps since 1998 (with a small physics tweak in 2003?). Shouldn't the Navy have a decent model for the tropics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Bonus question- has their been any appreciable upgrade to the Nogaps since 1998 (with a small physics tweak in 2003?). Shouldn't the Navy have a decent model for the tropics? All of their effort seems to be in COAMPS-TC; for my job I read USN news and press releases every day, and there are periodic ones talking about how awesome COAMPS-TC is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 92 L is going to have some tough times with westerly and southwesterly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 92 L is going to have some tough times with westerly and southwesterly shear. Good and bad. A weaker system is less easily recurved by passing mid-latitude troughs. But if it does develop, I have noticed a bad habit of systems to be sort of steered by shear, as the low level center keeps trying to reform under the convection, which tends to usually push them in the downshear direction. Assuming shear isn't so hostile it doesn't develop at all. FWIW, 18Z GFS much less enthusiastic about monster African wave than previous runs, although the run is only out 6 days so far... And steering looks favorable if 92L remains in any state at all and doesn't plow straight into Central America or the lower Yucatan (as it appears to be about to do on the 18Z GFS) to come Northwestward in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 So GFS says 92L is no threat to the USA because of strong ridging. Ernesto was no threat to the USA because of strong ridging. And whatever forms off Africa is no threat to the USA because of strong troughs. Amazing how lucky the USA has been for 7 years. Will this ever end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 So GFS says 92L is no threat to the USA because of strong ridging. Ernesto was no threat to the USA because of strong ridging. And whatever forms off Africa is no threat to the USA because of strong troughs. Amazing how lucky the USA has been for 7 years. Will this ever end? No, actually. GFS has been persistent that 92L develops, and then weakens or dies in the Caribbean. On the 18Z, the remnant low level vorticity has emerged into the lower BoC. 700 mb and 850 mb suggest a Northwest path beyond that. You may not remember Gustav or Ike. Gustav, I believe, had the highest wind gust ever measured with a TC in Baton Rouge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Wish-casting at its worst... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 welcome to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 92 L is going to have some tough times with westerly and southwesterly shear. It's going to be the Caribbean LLJ again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Wish-casting at its worst... that's a long video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Wish-casting at its worst... Oh please, you have NO idea... In 2000-2001 there was a guy in Florida with an "East Coast Tropical Weather" website that claimed to be running his own "model" (actually drawn with a paint program) that showed every single TC hitting Florida. He had an avid following on the bulletin boards back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Wish-casting at its worst... This is the best weeniecast(er) I ever heard! "Probably worse than Irene!" haha who is this so I can follow him?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 that's a long video. Thankfully I didn't waste my time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 This is the best weeniecast(er) I ever heard! "Probably worse than Irene!" haha who is this so I can follow him?! I only know about him from his Youtube account. I found him through his prelim winter forecasts, which are almost as bad as his tropical updates. Would be interesting if he was registered to this forum though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Good chance he is an weather forum, maybe even an AmWx member, and judging from the accent, probably NYC or SNE subforums. 50/50 he majors in met when he goes to college. That could have been me if YouTube had been invented in 1976. My Dad worked with mets at the airline (including a Texas legend, the late Harold Taft, at DAL before Dad moved back to New York) and told me they weren't paid well. Oddly enough, I never really developed an accent living on Long Island, but my older sister sounds a little like Linda Richman. They had accents when I moved to Texas over 30 years ago, but now, other than Nolan Ryan, you don't here hear accents down here anymore. Even Southern accents are almost gone. Ward Burton still has one, and Dale Junior, just a hint. I think its is the influence of TV. Back to weather, SSD now has .gif loops, which makes hotlinking invest satellite loops fun and easy. I uploaded two Ernesto loops earlier today, for posterity, but for now, a hotlink. Besides 92L, noticing a couple of the 18Z GFS perturbations are spinning up the big blob by Hispaniola the 12Z Canadian developed. CIMSS vorticity, what there is, is on top of Hispaniola, and CIMSS shear is between 20 and 30 knots, so that doesn't seem likely anytime soon. Their/There/They're edit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Convection is right over the 00z coordinates with some pretty nice low level clouds. Short term looks somewhat favorable for a weak system around 30-40 knots, but the long range is still uncertain and not too bright. Should see a cherry by 8am if DMAX can pump this up a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 You may not remember Gustav or Ike. Gustav, I believe, had the highest wind gust ever measured with a TC in Baton Rouge If you thought Gustav and Ike were bad then I can't fathom what you would say had they developed a singular inner core with no double wind maximas. Hurricanes threatening the USA have had continuous eyewall replacement cycles induced in the days leading up to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Good chance he is an weather forum, maybe even an AmWx member, and judging from the accent, probably NYC or SNE subforums. 50/50 he majors in met when he goes to college. That could have been me if YouTube had been invented in 1976. My Dad worked with mets at the airline (including a Texas legend, the late Harold Taft, at DAL before Dad moved back to New York) and told me they weren't paid well. Oddly enough, I never really developed an accent living on Long Island, but my older sister sounds a little like Linda Richman. They had accents when I moved to Texas over 30 years ago, but now, other than Nolan Ryan, you don't here hear accents down here anymore. Even Southern accents are almost gone. Ward Burton still has one, and Dale Junior, just a hint. I think its is the influence of TV. Back to weather, SSD now has .gif loops, which makes hotlinking invest satellite loops fun and easy. I uploaded two Ernesto loops earlier today, for posterity, but for now, a hotlink. Besides 92L, noticing a couple of the 18Z GFS perturbations are spinning up the big blob by Hispaniola the 12Z Canadian developed. CIMSS vorticity, what there is, is on top of Hispaniola, and CIMSS shear is between 20 and 30 knots, so that doesn't seem likely anytime soon. Their/There/They're edit... Pretty fast improvement, I'm impressed with how quick the outflow and spiral bands outside the storm formed. If it has a small core it's a TS already but the Tutt will probably be it's fate in 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 In case you want to know, here is the Dakar, Senegal sounding from earlier this evening as the low pressure center is about to roll off the African coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 This is the best weeniecast(er) I ever heard! "Probably worse than Irene!" haha who is this so I can follow him?! I didn't know Fran Drescher did hurricane videos. All kidding aside, I've been doing these videos since May 2005 so I can't put down fellow weather enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1110 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ORGANIZING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 If you thought Gustav and Ike were bad then I can't fathom what you would say had they developed a singular inner core with no double wind maximas. Hurricanes threatening the USA have had continuous eyewall replacement cycles induced in the days leading up to landfall. You said seven years. You didn't specify majors or anything else. So GFS says 92L is no threat to the USA because of strong ridging. Ernesto was no threat to the USA because of strong ridging. And whatever forms off Africa is no threat to the USA because of strong troughs. Amazing how lucky the USA has been for 7 years. Will this ever end? You miss corpses floating in New Orleans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I didn't know Fran Drescher did hurricane videos. All kidding aside, I've been doing these videos since May 2005 so I can't put down fellow weather enthusiasts. I really enjoy your videos, this guy however is a total joke. It's like watching HM (the accuweather one) when the models show a snowstorm in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 With that STWO, the thread for 92L has been posted. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/35981-invest-92l/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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