Severe weather thread number ...I think X ?

[ORH_wxman]

This isn't true. In their paper, 7.6% of SIG SVR events had met their EML criteria but the ones that did were largely responsible for causalities. True EML events make up a mere 0.1% of all total severe reports.

I think that was for the entire Northeast though...I seem to remember him talking about the true high end severe in just New England was pretty dependent on high ML lapse rates...whether it officially qualified for EML threshold or not. Further west into NY and PA (and even down into MD), its much more common for them to overcome certain parameters than it is here.

Maybe it wasn't mentioned in the paper, but just mentioned on here in passing as a result of doing research for the paper. I could be mistaken though...but it seems to match up well with our big high-end outbreaks in New England.

[CoastalWx]

I haven't see anyone calling bust outside of those target areas...

Kevin and other chasers drove to near Danbury CT. The obs there were pretty unimpressive.

Go through the forums for eastern PA / northern NJ / NYC / southeastern NY... lots of unimpressive and disappointing obs.

Widespread 40-50 kt gusts on ASOS is pretty good. You'll obviosly have stronger gusts in between. I don't know what people were expecting, but they did well there. I can't speak for NJ. I knew people would expect homes flattened when the risk was into CT.

[HM]

I think that was for the entire Northeast though...I seem to remember him talking about the true high end severe in just New England was pretty dependent on high ML lapse rates...whether it officially qualified for EML threshold or not. Further west into NY and PA (and even down into MD), its much more common for them to overcome certain parameters than it is here.

Maybe it wasn't mentioned in the paper, but just mentioned on here in passing as a result of doing research for the paper. I could be mistaken though...but it seems to match up well with our big high-end outbreaks in New England.

Oh okay; gotcha. I've only got the paper that they did and those numbers. His criteria was a bit tough too.

[NECT]

Rolling thunder and lightning here. Lots of folks bitching on FB about the weather cut ins from CBS NBC

AWT

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'm not as disapointed on the bust with severe here as i am with rain. Flash flood watches, svr t-storm watches and so far .05" rain w/ little of note on the radar to my West right now.

[Ginx snewx]

Like Phil said, SWCT was our forum target area and according to Ryan and Trials some areas got whacked.

[ORH_wxman]

Oh okay; gotcha. I've only got the paper that they did and those numbers. His criteria was a bit tough too.

Yeah I don't think we get many high-end severe outbreaks up here with lapse rates in the upper 5s or low 6s...probably ones that do not qualify for EML classification are much closer than today was.

[dryslot]

Overnight MCS into this am really screwed the pooch with clouds hanging on most of the day and warm front not making it as far north and east i think was a contributing factor

[Arnold214]

The mid level lapse rates were a problem but I think the issue has to do with the poor calculating of forward speed. Remember the predicted / expected time frame of this on the NWP? There wasn't enough time to advect in the proper atmosphere.

Timing of favorable parameters is usually an issue here in New England. I am, however, a bit surprised that storms didn't really intensify more than they did across the Hudson Valley down to NYC in the CAPE axis. However, Just looking at some charts now this evening shows no real decent short wave trough impinging on the northeast and the 100 kt upper level jet over Caribou me (too far north). In fact, there seems there may be a hint of short wave ridging overhead this evening.That along with warm 500mb temps of around -6c and attendant weak lapse rates doesn't really bode well for a high end svr event ripping all the way to the coast. In EML events, 500mb temp anomalies are usually neutral to slightly negative due to the steep mid level lapse rates (with highly positive 700mb temp anomalies).

[wxsniss]

Alright y'all.

Was a fun day.

Was hoping for more (1-2 confirmed TOGs (Elmira?), more widespread severe wind event in PA / NY / CT target areas).

Great discussions and posts all around.

G'night!

[HM]

Widespread 40-50 kt gusts on ASOS is pretty good. You'll obviosly have stronger gusts in between. I don't know what people were expecting, but they did well there. I can't speak for NJ. I knew people would expect homes flattened when the risk was into CT.

I can speak for NJ.

Broad circulation passed into NW-N-C NJ diminishing the wind component there. However, decent outflow winds did cut through central. Long story short, I am glad I didn't go anywhere this afternoon. I had 2 different outflow boundaries come through from 2 different storms and then the rain/wind. I kept my expectations low in C NJ and was pleasantly surprised (winds seemed to gust over 50 mph in the area).

I am very near Bordentown:

0753 PM TSTM WND DMG BORDENTOWN 40.15N 74.71W

07/26/2012 BURLINGTON NJ 911 CALL CENTER

TREES DOWN

[CoastalWx]

I can speak for NJ.

Broad circulation passed into NW-N-C NJ diminishing the wind component there. However, decent outflow winds did cut through central. Long story short, I am glad I didn't go anywhere this afternoon. I had 2 different outflow boundaries come through from 2 different storms and then the rain/wind. I kept my expectations low in C NJ and was pleasantly surprised (winds seemed to gust over 50 mph in the area).

I am very near Bordentown:

0753 PM TSTM WND DMG BORDENTOWN 40.15N 74.71W

07/26/2012 BURLINGTON NJ 911 CALL CENTER

TREES DOWN

I do agree with Ekster in that I thought DXR would do better an adjacent NY state. Sounds like Srn NY state and PA did well.

[HM]

Timing of favorable parameters is usually an issue here in New England. I am, however, a bit surprised that storms didn't really intensify more than they did across the Hudson Valley down to NYC in the CAPE axis. However, Just looking at some charts now this evening shows no real decent short wave trough impinging on the northeast and the 100 kt upper level jet just west of caribou me (too far north). In fact, there seems there may be a hint of short wave ridging overhead this evening.That along with warm 500mb temps of around -6c and attendant weak lapse rates doesn't really bode well for a high end svr event ripping all the way to the coast. In EML events, 500mb temp anomalies are usually neutral to slightly negative due to the steep mid level lapse rates (with highly positive 700mb temp anomalies).

Exactly. I am so glad you brought up the synoptics here because yesterday's NAM solution (and most of the NWP) suggested CVA-aid 00z-06z. I think mother nature blew its wad here with the very favorable conditions in PA / NY but those did not catch up to the increasingly poor conditions near the coast. The morning timing / placement issue of convection / clouds was another contributor.

[HM]

I do agree with Ekster in that I thought DXR would do better an adjacent NY state. Sounds like Srn NY state and PA did well.

Earlier today, I thought we would rip to SE MA. That potential slowly went down the crapper this afternoon once we realized there just wasn't enough time. In the beautiful world of models last night (north with the overnight convection and slower with the afternoon development), this all would have worked out. In reality, the overnight stuff came south and the afternoon stuff came quickly.

I'll be sure to learn from this one. That's all we can really do.

[CT Rain]

Yeah I don't think we get many high-end severe outbreaks up here with lapse rates in the upper 5s or low 6s...probably ones that do not qualify for EML classification are much closer than today was.

Only 7% of sig svr days met the EML criteria but of those days accounted for 50% of the fatalities during the study period. Many of the truly noteworthy events were EML days per the paper.

[CT Rain]

Exactly. I am so glad you brought up the synoptics here because yesterday's NAM solution (and most of the NWP) suggested CVA-aid 00z-06z. I think mother nature blew its wad here with the very favorable conditions in PA / NY but those did not catch up to the increasingly poor conditions near the coast. The morning timing / placement issue of convection / clouds was another contributor.

Yup. This really was problematic today.

[PineHillsWx]

My take out of today was to pay no attention to the futurecast radar composites that the local news met's show. Every station had Northern Middlesex County in MA getting whacked tonight with VERY HEAVY storms. I'm not blaming the met's, just got my hopes up and it obviously is not coming to pass. As predicted by many, It was obvious from watching radar the last several hours that Conn was the best shot for New England. A little rain for the garden at least tonight......

[Ginx snewx]

Nice beneficial stratiform rain falling.

[HM]

Overnight MCS into this am really screwed the pooch with clouds hanging on most of the day and warm front not making it as far north and east i think was a contributing factor

The 00z GFS hinted at this last night and was the first warning sign before the actual morning stuff arrived and we observed it. Between that miss on the NAM and then the faster evolution of what could have been a possible derecho (not going to me classified one) just killed everything.

[CT Rain]

Earlier today, I thought we would rip to SE MA. That potential slowly went down the crapper this afternoon once we realized there just wasn't enough time. In the beautiful world of models last night (north with the overnight convection and slower with the afternoon development), this all would have worked out. In reality, the overnight stuff came south and the afternoon stuff came quickly.

I'll be sure to learn from this one. That's all we can really do.

500mb heights actually rose a bit from 18z-00z across a portion of the region... certainly no QG ascent assist there lol. The models were trying to key in on some convectively induced vorticity but the main s/w and forcing was west and stayed west.

I can't believe the SPC almost went high risk today.

[HM]

500mb heights actually rose a bit from 18z-00z across a portion of the region... certainly no QG ascent assist there lol. The models were trying to key in on some convectively induced vorticity but the main s/w and forcing was west and stayed west.

I can't believe the SPC almost went high risk today.

Outside of our true EML events, this is why we all have this running anecdote about severe weather forecasts usually busting when higher risks are assessed. They are based on the NWP suggesting that perfect timing of features will allow us to rock. In this area, we have ZERO tolerance for timing issues; otherwise, the game is over (as Will and others have said). So it is the days when things aren't quite seen in advance that become memorable (which is why people say "see text" days usually over perform) because the timing issues turned out to work better for severe in real time. It really has to do with whatever the NWP is doing timing wise and its error before the event.

Of course, this likely isn't true but it may be the backbone to this perpetuated belief.

[dryslot]

The 00z GFS hinted at this last night and was the first warning sign before the actual morning stuff arrived and we observed it. Between that miss on the NAM and then the faster evolution of what could have been a possible derecho (not going to me classified one) just killed everything.

Yes, A later development of that line was one of the keys this afternoon for severe, A lot of the favorable areas needed a later start time to maximize all the parameters to sustain that line of storms

[Quincy]

A lot of damage across western Fairfield County, especially in the Danbury area. Had about 13,000 power outages in CT at the peak, now back down to 10,000ish.

[Ginx snewx]

After sunset severe events are as rare here as tropical storms. Everything has to be perfect. Cloud debris, timing screwed the pooch. Hopefully the media saturation was not too much. I know everyone was aware which is good.

[Arnold214]

Oh okay; gotcha. I've only got the paper that they did and those numbers. His criteria was a bit tough too.

It was...mainly because we initially wanted to study the frequency of true plains-like thermodynamic environments here in the northeast and how to get them here. Didn't really have the time or will to study more marginal events. While that didn't allow for a tremendous amount of cases, we were quite impressed at the disproportionate number of fatalities that were associated with the small sample size.

I think a good study would involve writing a script or some code that takes a look at lapse rates on ALL northeast soundings since 19XX and see how that shakes out. That would also be a good way to include null EML events. Something like this would take much too long to do manually.

[HM]

I believe it was Brian (I don't remember) who said "usually derechos end heat waves and this isn't that setup." There is actually a bit of truth to this statement. If mother nature was free to blow its wad with an accelerating QLCS in a seemingly infinite supply of instability downstream, you could see how you would end up reaching derecho criteria (6/29/2012 event).

Today's event wanted to be like all the other derechos except it got to the coastal plain and said, "WTF is this sh-t."

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Did the models overestimate the rain amounts in terms of how widespread the heavier precip would be? It seems the FF watches were very broad today.

[HM]

It was...mainly because we initially wanted to study the frequency of true plains-like thermodynamic environments here in the northeast and how to get them here. Didn't really have the time or will to study more marginal events. While that didn't allow for a tremendous amount of cases, we were quite impressed at the disproportionate number of fatalities that were associated with the small sample size.

I think a good study would involve writing a script or some code that takes a look at lapse rates on ALL northeast soundings since 19XX and see how that shakes out. That would also be a good way to include null EML events. Something like this would take much too long to do manually.

I think that would be a great study and I've been waiting for you to get on that! lol

[Ginx snewx]

I believe it was Brian (I don't remember) who said "usually derechos end heat waves and this isn't that setup." There is actually a bit of truth to this statement. If mother nature was free to blow its wad with an accelerating QLCS in a seemingly infinite supply of instability downstream, you could see how you would end up reaching derecho criteria (6/29/2012 event).

Today's event wanted to be like all the other derechos except it got to the coastal plain and said, "WTF is this sh-t."

I laughed hard at that but so true. Truth be told very few derechos make it to our SNE SE coast anyway. That sh it sandwich ain't worth eating.

[ice1972]

Well it may have been meh from a strictly SVR standpoint - where i was anyway - but I thoroughly enjoyed the lightning and for 30 minutes while I was on 84 the anticipation was exhilarating....