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Severe weather thread number ...I think X ?


Typhoon Tip

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Would definitely agree this possibility exists. The euro ensembles, though showing a persistent weakness along the east coast in the means, definitely give a good hint for a ridge surge pushing to the east coast in this exact fashion. I don't know if I have the strength to follow another one of these lol.

Oh come on, this sh-t is fun and you know it! I didn't mean to dismiss the convective threats before next weekend but I'm only going to pay attention to the stuff with some predictability in the extended range. If we can properly advect the heat in next weekend, the models would favor another "widespread" potential Aug 4-6 (latter end for NE).

You can see how at some point, this pattern will lead to an actual widespread event for the Northeast. The warm water, expansive drought/warmth in the CONUS and the jet stream trying to transition to El Nino will ultimately lead to something (old and new regimes battling can lead to fun). I am not ready to say "autumn 2001 or 2003" yet but I could definitely see a few more "outbreaks."

I don't think we're done yet folks.

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Oh come on, this sh-t is fun and you know it! I didn't mean to dismiss the convective threats before next weekend but I'm only going to pay attention to the stuff with some predictability in the extended range. If we can properly advect the heat in next weekend, the models would favor another "widespread" potential Aug 4-6 (latter end for NE).

You can see how at some point, this pattern will lead to an actual widespread event for the Northeast. The warm water, expansive drought/warmth in the CONUS and the jet stream trying to transition to El Nino will ultimately lead to something (old and new regimes battling can lead to fun). I am not ready to say "autumn 2001 or 2003" yet but I could definitely see a few more "outbreaks."

I don't think we're done yet folks.

Interesting summer up here, actually seems rather normal with some heat some cool. I know positive departures and all but nothing extreme yet. Plenty of Tstorm days and now we transition into a typical dog days pattern. For a region wide severe event it is going to take a really cool air mass to bum rush the coast with authority. Tough to do this time of year. Yea it seems Autumn could be very volatile this year.

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Interesting summer up here, actually seems rather normal with some heat some cool. I know positive departures and all but nothing extreme yet. Plenty of Tstorm days and now we transition into a typical dog days pattern. For a region wide severe event it is going to take a really cool air mass to bum rush the coast with authority. Tough to do this time of year. Yea it seems Autumn could be very volatile this year.

Summer in the Mid Latitudes is not going to want to let go easily this year but nothing can stop the whole tilt-loss of sun thing that goes on at the poles (lol). I am not quite confident enough to say rough autumn on the way only because I haven't been regularly checking the long range stuff recently. But looking at this on these simple terms could certainly bring some interesting events.

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Oh come on, this sh-t is fun and you know it! I didn't mean to dismiss the convective threats before next weekend but I'm only going to pay attention to the stuff with some predictability in the extended range. If we can properly advect the heat in next weekend, the models would favor another "widespread" potential Aug 4-6 (latter end for NE).

You can see how at some point, this pattern will lead to an actual widespread event for the Northeast. The warm water, expansive drought/warmth in the CONUS and the jet stream trying to transition to El Nino will ultimately lead to something (old and new regimes battling can lead to fun). I am not ready to say "autumn 2001 or 2003" yet but I could definitely see a few more "outbreaks."

I don't think we're done yet folks.

It was pretty damn fun to watch this threat materialize the day of, even if it ultimately failed my expectations. In the end I saw a nice shelf cloud from a dying line of t-storms for the 4th time in the 2 months I've been in Stamford...I suspect a trend for my location near the sound here. This particular shelf cloud was really sick I'll give it that, but I have let loose farts that had more speed to them than the winds yesterday..And I incredibly didnt see a single strike of lightning.

Then there is this to boot: 2350 UNK HOLMDEL MONMOUTH NJ TREES DOWN ALONG GARDEN STATE PARKWAY.

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It was pretty damn fun to watch this threat materialize the day of, even if it ultimately failed my expectations. In the end I saw a nice shelf cloud from a dying line of t-storms for the 4th time in the 2 months I've been in Stamford...I suspect a trend for my location near the sound here. This particular shelf cloud was really sick I'll give it that, but I have let loose farts that had more speed to them than the winds yesterday..And I incredibly didnt see a single strike of lightning.

Then there is this to boot: 2350 UNK HOLMDEL MONMOUTH NJ TREES DOWN ALONG GARDEN STATE PARKWAY.

Believe it or not, I had legitimate wind here. In fact, Bordentown had trees down (this town is just down the street from me) and my area had large branches. I had 3 bouts of strong wind. Better than expectations for sure.

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looks like a decent rain-maker there in SE CT.

I will know in about a minute, very dark

Core is high enough to start producing some CG strikes I'd think.

Heavy, heavy rain! I'll go check the gauge in bit to see how much. Heard a couple good rumbles of thunder but not a big deal.

Looks like Ginx is getting hit harder over in Ledyard than I was here in Salem.

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