Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

August 2012 General Discussion


Chicago WX

Recommended Posts

Well, all the rain didn't help my lawn too much..... It grew like a maniac, and I had to mow it.... and then I realized... it was the first time I mowed the lawn in about a month. However, the lawn is still dead, or soemthing... The grass feels very coarse, and dry-ish, and while it did turn green, the color was actually pretty weak. Probably did more damage mowing it.

Anyway, I am looking at the GFS, and warm returns. The 11th through the 14th looks to get very hot in fact. Which is something that has been pretty constant that last couple of runs. I am hoping that it moderates... but I get the feeling mid 90's for the start of the school year (Aug 22nd here) is not out of the realm of possibilities.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'm going against the grain. By the end of the first week of August the heat ridge will build further east and bring the hottest temps into the eastern cornbelt, OV, Lakes and Apps. I think the worst is yet to come for those areas.

"Worse"??? How much worse could it get??? Officially, we have gotten, what? 8 days over 100 this summer? aI have recorded at least 10 days over 100 on the back yard, and local WeatherBug station. (If my back yard, and the weather station at the Junior High are within .5 to 1 degree of one another, I figure it's correct, if it's more than that, either way... I go with the WB readings. One day the WB was showing 97 and my backyard 100, I figured the WB was right, it's less than 1/2 of a mile to the school.

The heat has really put a damper on the summer so far. The kids start school in 3 weeks, and its' looking the school year will get a hot start as well.

I am holding out hope for at least a halfway decent winter..... but, I am not so sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure if anyone posted this, but this warrants attention for this board over the next several days...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0359 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE

WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD...BEFORE ACCELERATING THROUGH THE STRONGER

WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT

WEEKEND. SPREAD AMONG THE MODEL DATA BEGINS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY BY

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE IMPULSE APPROACHES WHAT COULD STILL BE A

STRONGLY CONFLUENT REGIME BETWEEN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE...AND THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN POLAR VORTEX...WHICH MAY BE IN

THE PROCESS OF REDEVELOPING EASTWARD. THIS ALSO GENERALLY COINCIDES

WITH MODEL TIMING OF STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...WHICH COULD BE

ACCOMPANIED BY AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...POSSIBLY

INCLUDING THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES

REGION. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST ACROSS

PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN NEXT SATURDAY /AUGUST 4/...BUT

UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A

REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT AREA.

..KERR.. 07/30/2012

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yum

Not again! :facepalm: ...

I've had enough of this summer. I hope the switch in the MJO will in turn cause the ridge to stay west. Better yet, put a ridge in around Bermuda so the center part of the country can get a return flow out of the Gulf!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not again! :facepalm: ...

I've had enough of this summer. I hope the switch in the MJO will in turn cause the ridge to stay west. Better yet, put a ridge in around Bermuda so the center part of the country can get a return flow out of the Gulf!

I'll pass on the return flow. The swampy air mass can stay over the swampy regions. It's been hot but the humidity this summer has been delightfully manageable as compared to other notable above norm summers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'll pass on the return flow. The swampy air mass can stay over the swampy regions. It's been hot but the humidity this summer has been delightfully manageable as compared to other notable above norm summers.

That's been the bright side to this summer is the lower humidity. Its the humidity that drains when your working construction. Dont get me wrong its been brutal but it could have been a lot worse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the 12z GFS today.... It looks like the heat ridge gets pushed way west, starting around the 12th. hopefully that sticks.....

At one point the GFS was showing hot conditions for the Lakes from about the 11th to the 14th... Doesn't show that this run. If this sticks around for a few more runs... I could begin hoping the heat is done.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the 12z GFS today.... It looks like the heat ridge gets pushed way west, starting around the 12th. hopefully that sticks.....

At one point the GFS was showing hot conditions for the Lakes from about the 11th to the 14th... Doesn't show that this run. If this sticks around for a few more runs... I could begin hoping the heat is done.....

Gfs has done this several times this summer only to be wrong each time, so color me skeptical

Link to comment
Share on other sites

93F...looks like a chance of storms later...maybe...we need rain bad here...missed out a lot lately.

Action not too far from La Crosse already. 100 mph jetstreak trekking from northern minnesota to the UP of Michigan now and intensifying, should provide the lift necessary for some good convection throughout the night. LLJ will be enhanced too as air surges towards the right entrance region of the jet streak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Weak line of showers moving in from the north. Might be an outflow boundary but I'm not sure. The storms approaching La Crosse are getting better organized. CAPE gets lower towards the east though so I'm not getting my hopes up, I'm expecting a weakening stratiform complex if this system reaches Madison.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Turtle- I see that a 20% chance of storms was introduced for southern WI tonight.

Edit: Noticed another meteor streak across the sky at dusk tonight heading NNW. We must be getting close to the bi-annual meteor shower. Can't remember the name of it now...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gfs has done this several times this summer only to be wrong each time, so color me skeptical

You get the feeling this will be one of those years where we will be getting bouts of high heat into September. Most of the high heat/drought summers had that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It appears Detroit's on track for yet another top 10 hottest summer. Detroit would have to record an August departure greater than -2.5*F to knock this summer out of the top 10 ranking, which is unlikely.

A top 5 summer is still safely in reach too. Even if August's average was exactly normal (72*F), Detroit's average temperature for the summer would still be 74.4*F, which would tie the average Summer temp of 2012 with 2010 and 2011 (lol), both of which are tied for the 4th hottest summer on record.

That would be 3 top 5 summers in a row, which is absolutely impressive, if not unprecedented (3 top 10 summers in a row alone is impressive).

EDIT: Furthermore, all Detroit needs is to record a +1.4*F departure this August for 2012 to be the hottest summer (average of 74.9*F) on record (surpassing 2005 with 74.8*F).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...