12z Models

[Edge Weather]

Stronger energy moving in through Arkansas this run as well. Interesting.

[Nikolai]

last comparison to 0Z run

72 hrs trough definitely deeper, ridging along east coast better, a little west, vortex strung out and further north (probably weaker too)

all good

good enough?

To say this is a huge improvement from 6z is an understatement.

12z at 78:

6z at 84:

Clearly, there is much more cohesion between all the elements we need for a storm on the 12z, and rather than a strung-out mess we have a legitimate low forming in the Gulf. This needs to be watched very carefully--while it's the NAM, it can foreshadow trends in the other models, and the GFS could very well come west in an hour as well.

[stormtracker]

84 hour NAM looks good to my eyes. MUCH better. It looks like it's gonna do it

[SteveB]

If this model went out to 90 hrs we would have an 850 low developed near the NC/TN border-ish region:

[A-L-E-X]

84 hour NAM looks good to my eyes.  MUCH better.  It looks like it's gonna do it

the threshold of the NAM's "good" range.  Inside 48 hours its usually "golden."

[ag3]

NAM is most likely a nice run for the east coast. But do we trust the NAM?

[Nikolai]

84 hour NAM looks good to my eyes. MUCH better. It looks like it's gonna do it

84 is stunning; phasing occurring/about to occur, trough going neutral over MS... extrapolated (the DGEX would be GREAT to see, but I think it only runs at 6z/18z? at least on Ewall...), this run would likely be a significant event for I-95.

[earthlight]

I think the height field probably dictates something just off the coast...but the 300mb jet is very impressive. I made a post last night during the 6z NAM that the 300mb jet was indicating a real attempt to tug this up the coast if this were a few hours slower or further west. Well, there you go.

Might be right off the coast and not a direct hit, but that's what we wanted to see.

[Ian]

NAM is most likely a nice run for the east coast. But do we trust the NAM?

why would we? but of course we will for now...

[Kaner587]

NAM is most likely a nice run for the east coast. But do we trust the NAM?

yes and no...no because its 84 hours and is likely wrong. Only reason I say yes is because it looked decent for a couple runs yesterday then looked pretty awful after 18z so while this cannot be considered a trend yet, the PV orientation is drastically better and if it doesn't pull it this time, it looks to be damn close

[stormtracker]

84 is stunning; phasing occurring/about to occur, trough going neutral over MS... extrapolated (the DGEX would be GREAT to see, but I think it only runs at 6z/18z? at least on Ewall...), this run would likely be a significant event for I-95.

Maybe. But we can't play the praise the NAM outside 48 when it's good, damn it when its bad game. It is the NAM post 48 hours, so we need some backup at this point. GFS/Euro, come on!

[SnowGoose69]

The NAM always is insanely far west and amped up with cutters at the 84 hour range, it often is the same with classic noreasters at the same range...its rare to see it be progressive at that time frame.....therefore I don't put much stock in it....I am thinking the first event though is going to really have good P'O the people in NYC/BOS with whats going to go on down in DC

[Nikolai]

dude its a bit better

dont get carried away...

stop buryibg the east s coast when the Models shows partly cloudy skies

I think it's more than a bit better, but it's the NAM past 48 hours so it's kind of irrelevant anyways. The only importance is that it really isn't some insane solution, but a slightly better version of the 6z GFS--which, IMO, lends it some... minimal... credence.

I think the height field probably dictates something just off the coast...but the 300mb jet is very impressive. I made a post last night during the 6z NAM that the 300mb jet was indicating a real attempt to tug this up the coast if this were a few hours slower or further west. Well, there you go.

Might be right off the coast and not a direct hit, but that's what we wanted to see.

The 6z GFS was very close to a hit--compare the following images. The NAM is roughly 150-200 miles further N&W, which could be enough to give us a plowable event. Alas, we will never know what this 12z run showed beyond 84 hours, but it is fun to speculate.

12z NAM:

6z GFS:

[Midlo Snow Maker]

looping the 700mb and surface some deep moisture coming in from the tropics into the storm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_700_s_loop.shtml

[Kaner587]

dude its a bit better

dont get carried away...

stop buryibg the east s coast when the Models shows partly cloudy skies

I agree with your tempered enthusiasm because to be honest it just doesn't look very good overall anymore(not the NAM the chances for a storm north of NC/VA and eastern NE). But you can't deny this looks better with the PV orientation and last nights EURO while horrible with the southern stream did have a favorable PV orientation. Not saying this is a trend just yet but it doesn't hurt to see this.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

this thread is about the 12z models, if the OT keeps up you will be limited to 5 posts per day

THIS IS YOUR WARNING

[MN Transplant]

The difference in the PV between the GFS and NAM are ridiculous

It looks like the NAM has a little stronger interaction between the PV and our little vort (Thursday's storm). It has the end effect of weakening the PV, stringing it out, and then getting it trapped and shunted west under our Greenland/Arctic Canada superridge. That presumably would leave more "room" for the storm to be able to stick closer to the coast.

[ravensrule]

It looks like the NAM has a little stronger interaction between the PV and our little vort (Thursday's storm). It has the end effect of weakening the PV, stringing it out, and then getting it trapped and shunted west under our Greenland/Arctic Canada superridge. That presumably would leave more "room" for the storm to be able to stick closer to the coast.

So if we want the second storm to be better for us, what do we want the first storm to do that will help?.

[stormtracker]

RGEM 36

[Eskimo Joe]

I've been taking a look upstairs over the past few runs of the GFS and NAM, and have noticed some improvements. What once was a fast, generally zonal flow seems to be getting more amplified with each run. Unlike last year's storm, this potential event does not have access to the Pineapple Connection (Pacific Subtropical Jet). Thus it is not as juicy and may not be able to ram into the PV as much. Even so, you take a look at the 300mb map from the 12z NAM and you will see a trough attempting to go negative, something which snow lovers in the Mid Atlantic love to see. Oh BTW, I'm hoping for no snow this weekend...sorry.

[SnowGoose69]

Note the RGEM at 36 at 500mb over WY/UT looks quite different than the NAM at 36....especially over UT and even AZ.

[Eskimo Joe]

Note the RGEM at 36 at 500mb over WY/UT looks quite different than the NAM at 36....especially over UT and even AZ.

Good eye there, SnowGoose69. I'm intrigued as to how the RGEM is going to play this out.

[Ed Lizard]

Note the RGEM at 36 at 500mb over WY/UT looks quite different than the NAM at 36....especially over UT and even AZ.

Easier to see side by side. Reggie does look flatter to the SW.

[SnowGoose69]

Good eye there, SnowGoose69. I'm intrigued as to how the RGEM is going to play this out.

From what I see alot more like the GFS or Euro....its weaker than the 06Z GFS at 42 hours over WY but about the same across the 4 corners....the 00Z Euro though at 48 is notably more progressive than both the 12Z NAM and RGEM in that region and flatter.

[sauss06]

I've been taking a look upstairs over the past few runs of the GFS and NAM, and have noticed some improvements. What once was a fast, generally zonal flow seems to be getting more amplified with each run. Unlike last year's storm, this potential event does not have access to the Pineapple Connection (Pacific Subtropical Jet). Thus it is not as juicy and may not be able to ram into the PV as much. Even so, you take a look at the 300mb map from the 12z NAM and you will see a trough attempting to go negative, something which snow lovers in the Mid Atlantic love to see. Oh BTW, I'm hoping for no snow this weekend...sorry.

I'm definitly not a model reader, i'm still learning, but this looks much more north and west then before. Am i reading that correctly?

[LocoAko]

Through 42 hours on the 12Z GFS, the shortwave over New Mexico looks slightly deeper and the PV center looks slightly west of where the 06Z GFS had it.

[tcutter]

yes and no...no because its 84 hours and is likely wrong. Only reason I say yes is because it looked decent for a couple runs yesterday then looked pretty awful after 18z so while this cannot be considered a trend yet, the PV orientation is drastically better and if it doesn't pull it this time, it looks to be damn close

I have a question.........Just how bad is the NAM at 84 hours........Is it just reputation now or does it still verify that bad??

[Eskimo Joe]

I'm definitly not a model reader, i'm still learning, but this looks much more north and west then before. Am i reading that correctly?

I would not say the storm is grossly further north and west. I'd say it's a jog west of less than 100 miles.

I have a question.........Just how bad is the NAM at 84 hours........Is it just reputation now or does it still verify that bad??

From my experience, the NAM exactly at 84 hours is nothing too reliable, just like the 384 hour GFS. By the time the NAM gets to hour 60, it has had a few runs to incorporate all the players for a potential event, thus having a better handle on the situation.

[mitchnick]

72 hr GFS looks similarly flat as 0Z run

[PhineasC]

GFS looks to miss east once again.