Weekend Storm Disco (Dec 18th & 19th)

[beanskip]

What's with all the RH over the SE on Day 6?

[kanc2001]

I may be way off, but hasnt the gfs performed better so far this month in terms of frozen precip in the SE? i know im pretty much outta the question down here on the coast but I think the gfs is doing better? no?

[Gastonwxman]

this is everyone after the euro

Well said. This is what I had in mind:

[BullCityWx]

Until we pop a PNA ridge, you can pretty much forget our chances for a major snowstorm here.

[WeatherNC]

Two camps with the 12z runs, GFS and GGEM are more amplified, and show some storm potential, NOGAPS, UKMET, JMA, and ECMWF are flat with the wave and show nothing of real consequence in terms of sensible weather. HPC prefers a GFS 0z ECMWF blend in the afternoon model disco...

...TROF REACHING THE PLAINS/E-CNTRL STATES FRI-SAT...

...WAVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE SAT...

PREFERENCE: GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND

THE NAM IS A SLOW/AMPLIFIED EXTREME WITH THE MID LVL TROF FOR A

MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THIS TRAIT EMERGES AS ENERGY CROSSES THE

GRTBASIN ON THU... AND THE REMAINDER OF THE TROF BECOMES SLOW AND

AMPLIFIED FROM LATE THU ONWARD. ISSUES ALOFT CAUSE THE NAM TO

LEAN TO THE SLOW EDGE OF THE SOLN SPREAD WITH THE BROAD AREA OF

LOW PRESSURE FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO NEWD BY F84 LATE SAT.

THUS WILL MINIMIZE CONSIDERATION OF THE NAM. MEANWHILE THE GFS

COMPARES BETTER TO CONSENSUS OVERALL BUT IS MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT

VERSUS OTHER SOLNS ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO NRN MEXICO.

THE GFS COMPARES BETTER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE FRI ONWARD.

HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL SOLNS IS SOMEWHAT FLATTER

ALOFT AND/OR FARTHER EWD WITH THE AXIS OF TROFFING OVER THE GRTLKS

AND VICINITY... WHICH RESULTS IN SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING

INTO/OVER THE WRN ATLC FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS COULD BE A

LITTLE SLOW/DEEP SFC AND ALOFT BUT HAS ENOUGH ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO

BE GIVEN PARTIAL WEIGHTING. THIS COMBINED WITH PRELIM MEDIUM

RANGE PREFERENCES RECOMMEND A GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND TO YIELD AN

INTERMEDIATE AMPLITUDE ALOFT AND SFC TIMING THAT IS IN THE SLOWER

HALF OF THE NON-NAM GUIDANCE SPREAD. THE UKMET/CMC AGREE THAT THE

GFS MAY BE TOO AMPLIFIED ALOFT LATE THU INTO FRI. A

SHARPER/DEEPER ADJUSTMENT ALOFT IN THE CMC YIELDS A SOLN CLOSER TO

THE GFS BY SAT WHILE THE UKMET IS STILL FAST AND WEAKER THAN

PREVIOUS RUN. CURRENT PREFERENCE OF A GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND STILL

APPEARS REASONABLE.

[FoothillsNC]

between 186 to 210 it drops a shortwave and cuts it off over the Southeast and develops a coastal off Ga. quite a bit of snow actually in the Carolinas and Ga with that. I doubt its right, but the strong block in Canada causes an enourmous east coast trough with embedded cutoff toward the end of the run. More severe cold.

[Cold Rain]

Two camps with the 12z runs, GFS and GGEM are more amplified, and show some storm potential, NOGAPS, UKMET, JMA, and ECMWF are flat with the wave and show nothing of real consequence in terms of sensible weather. HPC prefers a GFS 0z ECMWF blend in the afternoon model disco...

So basically, North America vs. the World (and the Nocraps).

[strongwxnc]

Andy Wood posted an update at his Blog.

They cover the Upstate, some of NEGA and WNC.

In a nut shell...Model battle!!

http://foxcarolinaweather.wordpress.com/2010/12/15/weekend-storm-discussion/

[BIG FROSTY]

JB likes the canadian and GFS for the weekend storm said it should come back west just a little more, It does bother him that the euro is not on board cause he likes that model.. said snow I-40 drawing a line across NC then up the coast. Of course he didn't give any totals here in the NC but said 3-6 in DC 6-12 Boston. There is his take as of now FWIW. lol

[strongwxnc]

Well, the CMC liked NC on the 12Z run.. That is true..

JB likes the canadian and GFS for the weekend storm said it should come back west just a little more, It does bother him that the euro is not on board cause he likes that model.. said snow I-40 drawing a line across NC then up the coast. Of course he didn't give any totals here in the NC but said 3-6 in DC 6-12 Boston. There is his take as of now FWIW. lol

[msuwx]

Yeah, I have definitely noticed the GFS has outperformed the Euro in some situations since Fall. I normally really start comparing the two models each Fall leading up to Winter, and there have been several systems where the GFS has done better. In fast, I was impressed to some degree with the GFS most of the warm season.

The 12z Canadian is more along the lines of the way my gut thought it was possible to unfold, but I sure wish one of the foreign models would get on board. Like Robert and others mentioned, let's let this thing get on the RAOB network and see where we stand in another 24 hours.

In the meantime, this looks like a pretty decent little event tonight/ tomorrow for areas north of I-40 and esp. up into VA.

[strongwxnc]

Very good points Matt.

Yeah, I have definitely noticed the GFS has outperformed the Euro in some situations since Fall. I normally really start comparing the two models each Fall leading up to Winter, and there have been several systems where the GFS has done better. In fast, I was impressed to some degree with the GFS most of the warm season.

The 12z Canadian is more along the lines of the way my gut thought it was possible to unfold, but I sure wish one of the foreign models would get on board. Like Robert and others mentioned, let's let this thing get on the RAOB network and see where we stand in another 24 hours.

In the meantime, this looks like a pretty decent little event tonight/ tomorrow for areas north of I-40 and esp. up into VA.

[Gastonwxman]

Yeah, I have definitely noticed the GFS has outperformed the Euro in some situations since Fall. I normally really start comparing the two models each Fall leading up to Winter, and there have been several systems where the GFS has done better. In fast, I was impressed to some degree with the GFS most of the warm season.

The 12z Canadian is more along the lines of the way my gut thought it was possible to unfold, but I sure wish one of the foreign models would get on board. Like Robert and others mentioned, let's let this thing get on the RAOB network and see where we stand in another 24 hours.

In the meantime, this looks like a pretty decent little event tonight/ tomorrow for areas north of I-40 and esp. up into VA.

As did I. It seems hopeful to know that GFS is doing a decent job with its forecasts, but the question remains as to how well it does for this winter to that of the Euro. I say that there will be quite a battle between these two throughout the season whenever a potential event sets up for our region.

I was a bit surprised at the 12z Euro's slightly colder/wetter solution for tonight/morning. Guess that dusting of snow and the glaze of ice is looking better haha.

[burgertime]

18z NAM is colder for Saturday but it looks like our system might be squashed, gonna have to wait and see.

[beanskip]

This weekend thing feels like "heads you win, tails I lose." Either it's cold enough and the low is OTS, or the low takes a good track, but it's too warm.

18z NAM is colder for Saturday but it looks like our system might be squashed, gonna have to wait and see.

[burgertime]

This weekend thing feels like "heads you win, tails I lose." Either it's cold enough and the low is OTS, or the low takes a good track, but it's too warm.

So true.

[Gastonwxman]

Isn't that how it almost always works in our area when it comes to winter weather? You can only have one good thing, but not both.

[Weather Czar]

Nam looks juicy to me. Look at 700 rh

[packfan98]

NAM ends up in a pretty favorable position. Mets on the board will have to discuss the upper air dynamics and where it would go from here.

[burgertime]

Yep NAM keeps us in the game.

[Amos83]

NAM def. looks cold enough but is a little more supressed. 700 rh is looked primed though..... still a lot of swaying back and forth to go before we know what will happen. At least there looks to be enough cold air around to me.

[bingcrosbyb]

Based on the 18z NAM and the 700mb map, there should be snow in TN, north AL, and north GA. But nothing is shown at the surface.

Nevermind: dry slot @ 925mb.

[FoothillsNC]

for highway 74 region of southern NC, the NAM probably is slightly too warm. The 925 and boundary layer is just above freezing, but our 850 is below, however we're well west of the good lift, so precip rates verbatim would leave us at 35 and light rain. Futher east at 84 hours is when it develops the 850 low, so by then points east of CLT are probably in good snow in a developing deformation band. If you extrapolated that would eventually get eastern NC very good with 6" probably. Lose-Lose for my area. Plus time of day with marginal boundary layer, I don't like.

[TheVille]

for highway 74 region of southern NC, the NAM probably is slightly too warm. The 925 and boundary layer is just above freezing, but our 850 is below, however we're well west of the good lift, so precip rates verbatim would leave us at 35 and light rain. Futher east at 84 hours is when it develops the 850 low, so by then points east of CLT are probably in good snow in a developing deformation band. If you extrapolated that would eventually get eastern NC very good with 6" probably. Lose-Lose for my area. Plus time of day with marginal boundary layer, I don't like.

Lose lose for all of WNC?

[FoothillsNC]

it starts developing just a little too late to get n. Ga and the western Carolinas into it really, but points east are def. into it this run. Seems like thats the way its headed in the guidance, the futher east you are, the more chances of really getting into good precip and rates...further north and west inland in NC, much lower, pretty much all guidance. Doesn't mean its carved in stone yet. A few miles west and more amplification would make a huge difference. I'd take my chances on the temps just to have a sharper wave and more lift and moisture here.

[burgertime]

for highway 74 region of southern NC, the NAM probably is slightly too warm. The 925 and boundary layer is just above freezing, but our 850 is below, however we're well west of the good lift, so precip rates verbatim would leave us at 35 and light rain. Futher east at 84 hours is when it develops the 850 low, so by then points east of CLT are probably in good snow in a developing deformation band. If you extrapolated that would eventually get eastern NC very good with 6" probably. Lose-Lose for my area. Plus time of day with marginal boundary layer, I don't like.

Good points. This will be a huge kick in the balls if eastern NC cashes in yet again.

[Weather Czar]

for highway 74 region of southern NC, the NAM probably is slightly too warm. The 925 and boundary layer is just above freezing, but our 850 is below, however we're well west of the good lift, so precip rates verbatim would leave us at 35 and light rain. Futher east at 84 hours is when it develops the 850 low, so by then points east of CLT are probably in good snow in a developing deformation band. If you extrapolated that would eventually get eastern NC very good with 6" probably. Lose-Lose for my area. Plus time of day with marginal boundary layer, I don't like.

Why does it look so good at 700 over western NC, But nothing much at the surface?

[burgertime]

SREF had accum type as snow for most of Western and Central NC at 87 hours

EDIT- It even has it down to CAE and half of Ga.

[Weather Czar]

SREF had accum type as snow for most of Western and Central NC at 87 hours

LOL.. Flurries?

[burgertime]

I know this is small but here is what it looks like on the SREF for this weekend...