OSUmetstud Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 whoa at the nam on friday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Pretty much what 12z nam shows... "scenario 1" from the Box AFD... the least exciting solution we've seen on the nam yet. Morning MCS stays organized, clears eastern SNE by 10am-noon and all of SNE is dry thereafter. Not sure I agree with that. Issue is really the forcing and instability in the pm aren't colocated. The shortwave from quebec digs too far east and most of sne is left with subsidence behind the morning MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Yeah ugly on the NAM. Looks like some ridging builds in behind the morning MCS and heights actually rise through most of the day. We'll probably remained capped. It's all about the Quebec s/w. That's an excellent point and it's probably the most likely scenario for this area too. The upper valley may have the best combination, Greenfield to Bellows Falls or something, where heights could fall again during peak heating, terrain channeling, and sufficient longitude to destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Looks like it might actually rain here tonight. We haven't had anything appreciable in close to a month. I know we need the rain, but hate to start cutting grass again. Today I don't see anything materializing in the SNE area, Tomorrow could be a different animal. I think right now I'd favor central/western areas up into VT and NH for the best storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The idea of some tstms overnight across a portion of SNE seems to have legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Early look at the 12z gfs, id say a promising trend for saturday..Slightly stronger ridge out west and the vortex in Canada travels in a little further south, better height falls towards new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 The idea of some tstms overnight across a portion of SNE seems to have legs. Looking up stream... northern Wisconsin over to the northern Penn of Michigan got smacked around pretty good by derecho like convection. I geeked out over it for over an hour last night - some really amazing rad returns in that area, both in and surrounding the primary convective complex. As the old index finger rule goes, Michigan action tends to show here the next day. Currently there is a large debris field in the mid and upper levels over the GL and southern Ontario... There may be decaying outflow boundaries amid that flotsam that could serve as triggers for new activity. The general environment is pleasing to the notion, in having SW in the 850mb riding up underneath west or even WNW middle troposphere flow. That geostrophic turning with altitude when it collocates with continental temperature gradient is inherently a powder-keg. Thing is... it almost looks less MCS and more just baroclinically driven in the way the NAM's QPF distribution initiates things up near of just NE of Lake Superior. eh...what of it - just about every event in weather is some how interchangeably comparable to others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Friday night is starting to look pretty classic. I wonder if HM has some thoughts on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Stick a fork in tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Stick a fork in tomorrow afternoon. Y4???? Too much subsidence/ridging???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Y4???? Too much subsidence/ridging???? 21z tomorrow..... 500-700mb lapse rates at BDL wait for..... it.... 4.4 c/km!!!!! There's a bunch of nasty negatives for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 21z tomorrow..... 500-700mb lapse rates at BDL wait for..... it.... 4.4 c/km!!!!! There's a bunch of nasty negatives for tomorrow. Overnight/morning convection kills everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Overnight/morning convection kills everything? It's a number of issues including timing, poor lapse rates, subsidence, location of Quebec s/w, crappy shear, veered (NW) boundary layer winds). Pretty much every imaginable fail is failed for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 It's a number of issues including timing, poor lapse rates, subsidence, location of Quebec s/w, crappy shear, veered (NW) boundary layer winds). Pretty much every imaginable fail is failed for tomorrow. Normal severe weather issues for SNE. I suppose we were spoiled from last year's tornado outbreak. Although you guys in CT did well on Sunday with the supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I'm OK with decent weather for the 4th. Too much to do outside. Storms can come another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Normal severe weather issues for SNE. I suppose we were spoiled from last year's tornado outbreak. Although you guys in CT did well on Sunday with the supercell. Actually most of these aren't normal issues for SNE. This event just sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 It's a number of issues including timing, poor lapse rates, subsidence, location of Quebec s/w, crappy shear, veered (NW) boundary layer winds). Pretty much every imaginable fail is failed for tomorrow. NAM is pretty ugly. GFS not quite as horrendous but still not great. maybe a couple of isolated cells across the interior during the afternoon? perhaps focused more over N of the pike pts N and E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 NAM is pretty ugly. GFS not quite as horrendous but still not great. maybe a couple of isolated cells across the interior during the afternoon? perhaps focused more over N of the pike pts N and E? Yeah I could see that. It's one of those events where every single parameter has gone to crap... timing, etc etc etc. Oh well. Nice EML on Friday but we will be super capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Actually most of these aren't normal issues for SNE. This event just sucks. What I meant was, usually, we always find things to go wrong the closer we get to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 What I meant was, usually, we always find things to go wrong the closer we get to an event. Yeah normally we have like 1 or 2 things working for us and 1 or 2 things against. This one we're like 5 for 5 for negatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 And welcome to a below normal pattern for next week on the Euro. WOW! Sorry torch twins... be afraid of the upcoming setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Yeah I could see that. It's one of those events where every single parameter has gone to crap... timing, etc etc etc. Oh well. Nice EML on Friday but we will be super capped. until overnight? Euro doesn't want to quite do it...but the cold front/shortwave dropping from the northwest could provide enough lift to break it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 until overnight? Euro doesn't want to quite do it...but the cold front/shortwave dropping from the northwest could provide enough lift to break it. Eh, not here. NAM/GFS have the boundary layer quite dry. Monster amounts of CIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Wonder if I'll see a few Tor's up here in the Whites tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Eh, not here. NAM/GFS have the boundary layer quite dry. Monster amounts of CIN. There's some weenie dewpoint pooling over NYS on Friday evening...but yeah NE stays kinda dry until early morning. I think there could be an MCS generating upstream over Lake Superior moving SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 There's some weenie dewpoint pooling over NYS on Friday evening...but yeah NE stays kinda dry until early morning. I think there could be an MCS generating upstream over Lake Superior moving SE. Yeah didn't really look outside of New England... but it is a beautiful looking EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Thunder threat tomorrow afternoon BOS and east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Wonder if I'll see a few Tor's up here in the Whites tomorrow? yes most likely you will see at least a couple lol ill be up in milton,nh wednesday then n conway /jackson area thursday. bliz you should check out this area called "dana's bath" it a short flat hike/walk and then the water and the falls are gorgeous ....swimmable even. and also arethusula falls a bit further w on the 302 ...bout 10 mins past attitash is another beautiful spot. more of a hike....mile or so to get to but lovely. also catherdral ledge (can be driven up ) is quite a site and i hope you grab breakfast at that nice lil spot just past the covered bridge in jackson. I have been there like 7 times since last fall. If u were in better shape I'd hike washington w u on thurz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Looked a little bit at the 12z runs from my phone at work and just looked over the rest of the 12z stuff and 15z SPC SREF...what a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 for those feeling anti-climax, this is a good source of a rush, unfortunately probably once-in-a-lifetime here in SNE: it's amazing how forecast conditions seemed to only improve and lock in may 30 as we neared the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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