Ginx snewx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Scooter, after being surrounded by the hit or misses today got hit nicely by a gust front then torrential rain with lots of lightning. Thanks for the heads up, being on a lake watching these towers grow is fantastic. Saw the gust front hit the other side of the lake real well then watched it just blow across. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 18z NAM and GFS really couldn't be any different for the severe threat on the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Working on a write-up for Wednesday now since I finally have time to really look at things in better detail. Wednesday is certainly incredibly interesting but as usual there are many, many questions that need to be answered and some of which we won't know until Wednesday. However, if we go back historically I think we can actually answer a few of those questions right now, despite what models may or may not be showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Anyone want to take a guess at what the top analog is for Wednesday from the 12z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Anyone want to take a guess at what the top analog is for Wednesday from the 12z NAM? July 1995? June 2011? Feb 1978? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 18z NAM and GFS really couldn't be any different for the severe threat on the 4th. Nam looked like it wanted to rip an F2 thru ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 July 1995? June 2011? Feb 1978? No, no and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Scooter, after being surrounded by the hit or misses today got hit nicely by a gust front then torrential rain with lots of lightning. Thanks for the heads up, being on a lake watching these towers grow is fantastic. Saw the gust front hit the other side of the lake real well then watched it just blow across. Sweet. Well I guess you were one of the 20-30% lol. At least you kept an eye out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Anyone want to take a guess at what the top analog is for Wednesday from the 12z NAM? 6/1 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 It's almost like all models and everything is pointing to exactly the opposite of everything you just posted here. Ha haaa NoooOOOOO storms for kevin, ONE YEAR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 6/1 lol Dave already said that. Come on people...more guesses. Let's have some fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 Nam looked like it wanted to rip an F2 thru ct And an EOF4 for Mt Tolland interestingly enough - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Lots of weenie talk in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Tip, I think I saw a post of your before asking about bufkit profiles. For some reason the PSU bufkit site has not been working for the NAM since like June 25th...this is where I usually go. As for the BOX site they do run 6z/18z bufkit data, however, it's just with the 0z/12z now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Dave already said that. Come on people...more guesses. Let's have some fun! How do you get the analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Lots of weenie talk. Damn am I excited! C'mon, add something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Lots of weenie talk in here. I have an innie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 What would Altitude Lou think if he saw this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 How do you get the analogs? Since people want to be party poopers I'll post the link. The top analog is 7/10/89 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/WARM/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 If this was winter and this was a winter storm threat there would be just as much weenie talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 What would Altitude Lou think if he saw this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 If this was winter and this was a winter storm threat there would be just as much weenie talk. One weenie 144hr 18z gfs run shows a benchmark low with +1 850 temps and the thread grows 5 pages in 15 minutes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Dave, do you remember him on channel 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 If this was winter and this was a winter storm threat there would be just as much weenie talk. But it's a conditional severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Anyone know how I can view 12z buflit? PSU site hasn't had NAM since 6/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 But it's a conditional severe threat. I'm not really so sure I'd call this threat conditional. Sure right now it isn't perfect and there are lots of questions but this event certainly holds alot of potential, especially if the NAM is correct. I know we have the MCS we're going to have to deal with but I'm not sure how strong it will be and it may actually help us rather than hurt us I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I'm not really so sure I'd call this threat conditional. Sure right now it isn't perfect and there are lots of questions but this event certainly holds alot of potential, especially if the NAM is correct. I know we have the MCS we're going to have to deal with but I'm not sure how strong it will be and it may actually help us rather than hurt us I think. Conditional means more of the fact that it depends on solar heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 What would Altitude Lou think if he saw this thread? Lou McNally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 fwiw the euro looks more like the nam than gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Conditional means more of the fact that it depends on solar heating. Gotcha I think the only way we would get screwed over with lack of solar heating is if the MCS traverses our region later in the morning rather than earlier. If we can get this thing to move through say between 5-7 AM...even as late as 8-9 AM I think we would be in completely good shape. The next issue would be how strong or large will the MCS be and will we see any subsidence...at this point I'm not sure if this will be a major issue but certainly needs to be watched for. The MCS could certainly help us with regards to outflow boundaries as well as further increasing low-level moisture. I think it's all about MCS timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.