HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Nicely done, Paul. What is a derecho again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Now this is all clear to me...I was getting confused by this b/c I saw that initial s/w and then when you just mentioned that the 18z run was suffering from feedback I looked back and was able to see what you were meaning. Late show may not be bad...gives us more heating time And if you look at the 18z runs... that wild vort max it was producing was developing very strong wind fields in the morning due to the convectively induced vort. The 00z run is more reasonable. The problem with the 4th is that the NAM is most aggressive with the Quebec s/w... digging it earlier in the late afternoon/evening. We want that to continue to force convection. Will also have to see what happens with lapse rates as we get closer and as I mentioned keeping boundary layer moisture in place and winds in the BL backed to the south (something the GFS doesn't do). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Wiz - edit that down to 2 paragraphs then I'll read it. You don't need that much space!! great post wiz. well laid out and understandable Nicely done, Paul. What is a derecho again? edited the space down. Thanks! Look it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Now this is all clear to me...I was getting confused by this b/c I saw that initial s/w and then when you just mentioned that the 18z run was suffering from feedback I looked back and was able to see what you were meaning. Late show may not be bad...gives us more heating time Smallish round 1 around 6-7AM, round 2 around 3-5PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Wiz - edit that down to 2 paragraphs then I'll read it. You don't need that much space!! lol...it's a bit long, but a good read. And nothing against Tip, but it's pretty readable for dopes like me. I'm checking this thread often and always...I've got a parade at 2 and a concert at 4 on July 4th. Hoping it trends toward very scattered and not severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Jk about derecho...can't read half of the news media without seeing that word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 And if you look at the 18z runs... that wild vort max it was producing was developing very strong wind fields in the morning due to the convectively induced vort. The 00z run is more reasonable. The problem with the 4th is that the NAM is most aggressive with the Quebec s/w... digging it earlier in the late afternoon/evening. We want that to continue to force convection. Will also have to see what happens with lapse rates as we get closer and as I mentioned keeping boundary layer moisture in place and winds in the BL backed to the south (something the GFS doesn't do). The lapse rates are something I am concerned about. Lapse rates upstream don't look overly impressive (at least on the 12z run) so if they weaken too much they may not recover. The more that s/w digs the better chance we will have at keeping BL moisture in place and keeping those BL winds further backed. This we just won't know until probably the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Smallish round 1 around 6-7AM, round 2 around 3-5PM? Sounds pretty good...although I could see the morning round not exiting until 9-10 AM...round 2 hopefully would be after 3 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 lol...it's a bit long, but a good read. And nothing against Tip, but it's pretty readable for dopes like me. I'm checking this thread often and always...I've got a parade at 2 and a concert at 4 on July 4th. Hoping it trends toward very scattered and not severe. It's still telling though - damn. I'm still trying to find a happy medium there, between the teck talk and the rhetoric - btw, my name is John. Typhoon Tip is only borrowed as a historic reference. If anyone would prefer John, that's actually less silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Thanks for checking. I figured out what's going on with KTAN, though. They are posting all the cycles under the 00z/12z header, 00z, 06z...18z..etc. The 06z/18z header seems just not be working. Currently the NAM BUFKIT in the 00z/12z block is the 18z run - Two problems... 1.) NWS headquarters decided to roll out the new NWS webpages, and there's LOTS of problems nationwide with many pages. Will take a while to fix everything. Had to roll out in the middle of summer AND over a holiday week. That's headquarters for you. 2.) We are a beta test site for AWIPS II, and it rolled out here last week. Let's just say it's insane, and I'm being polite when I say this. So, John, don't know when things will get to any semblance of normal. Sorry. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 Jk about derecho...can't read half of the news media without seeing that word I feel partially responsible ... I mentioned in the last thread in conversation with HM - I think it was - that derecho (derechio if you're ChrisM) looked heavy and 2 days later...well. Not sure how much of that leaked out, but it was most likely just recognition after the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I do like the new look, Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The 00z NAM is just a few hours off from a solid convective event, what a tease it is with the entire synoptic setup and the decayed MCS coming through at 06-12z. I'm not sure what kind of recovery would be possible in the mid and low levels after the passage of that system...the main height falls sweep southeast over Northern New England by 00-06z Thursday but as a few have alluded to, its too little too late by that point. The general vibe from the models in the medium term really just involves poor timing and even somewhat lackluster wind fields (from the last glance I had this afternoon at the SPC SREF means). http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_0z/f36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The NAM soundings are kind of funky looking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I feel partially responsible ... I mentioned in the last thread in conversation with HM - I think it was - that derecho (derechio if you're ChrisM) looked heavy and 2 days later...well. Not sure how much of that leaked out, but it was most likely just recognition after the fact. Yeah, I saw that. You and a few others sniffed that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 Two problems... 1.) NWS headquarters decided to roll out the new NWS webpages, and there's LOTS of problems nationwide with many pages. Will take a while to fix everything. Had to roll out in the middle of summer AND over a holiday week. That's headquarters for you. 2.) We are a beta test site for AWIPS II, and it rolled out here last week. Let's just say it's insane, and I'm being polite when I say this. So, John, don't know when things will get to any semblance of normal. Sorry. --Turtle It's all good - now that I know. The data is being carried and it becomes a matter of knowing where to get it - it's awesome that we actually get this free at all, in the private sector. So the gratitude is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Those cells in NH gonna hit NE Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The 00z NAM is just a few hours off from a solid convective event, what a tease it is with the entire synoptic setup and the decayed MCS coming through at 06-12z. I'm not sure what kind of recovery would be possible in the mid and low levels after the passage of that system...the main height falls sweep southeast over Northern New England by 00-06z Thursday but as a few have alluded to, its too little too late by that point. The general vibe from the models in the medium term really just involves poor timing and even somewhat lackluster wind fields (from the last glance I had this afternoon at the SPC SREF means). http://www.meteo.psu.../WRF_0z/f36.gif The nice thing about the NAM is that it has strong directional shear with NW flow aloft and S flow at the surface. So even though mid level winds aren't overly noteworthy you actually wind up with a decent amount of deep-layer shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The 00z NAM is just a few hours off from a solid convective event, what a tease it is with the entire synoptic setup and the decayed MCS coming through at 06-12z. I'm not sure what kind of recovery would be possible in the mid and low levels after the passage of that system...the main height falls sweep southeast over Northern New England by 00-06z Thursday but as a few have alluded to, its too little too late by that point. The general vibe from the models in the medium term really just involves poor timing and even somewhat lackluster wind fields (from the last glance I had this afternoon at the SPC SREF means). http://www.meteo.psu.../WRF_0z/f36.gif Yeah wind fields aren't overly impressive but b/c of the directional shear being modeled by the NAM we have some decent hodos...this may lead to more in the way of big hail producers (if this pans out) rather than tornadic potential given the weaker wind fields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 Yeah, I saw that. You and a few others sniffed that out. It was a derecho, though (derechio if your ChrisM), and if this -NAO summer continues to zip WNW westerlies over the NE U.S. while a heat dome occasionally attempts to bulge, derechos are out there. wow, just looked and there's this one in NW WI right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 It's still telling though - damn. I'm still trying to find a happy medium there, between the teck talk and the rhetoric - btw, my name is John. Typhoon Tip is only borrowed as a historic reference. If anyone would prefer John, that's actually less silly. Hey John...not at all a complaint against you or your posts. I read and decipher as much of your posts as I can. IMHO, you shouldn't change a thing. I read here to try to learn, and I really appreciate the fact that mets post here. Thanks. Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 FWIW the 21z SPC SREF is on the meh side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 It was a derecho, though (derechio if your ChrisM), and if this -NAO summer continues to zip WNW westerlies over the NE U.S. while a heat dome occasionally attempts to bulge, derechos are out there. wow, just looked and there's this one in NW WI right now! It's fine, tropical systems can't spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 3, 2012 Author Share Posted July 3, 2012 It's fine, tropical systems can't spell. Wow- what picture. That f*er was just not describable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The 0z NAM has nuts instability but then again it also has near mid 70's dewpoints. Lots of 0-3km helicity with a very solid amount of 0-1km helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The 0z NAM has nuts instability but then again it also has near mid 70's dewpoints. Lots of 0-3km helicity with a very solid amount of 0-1km helicity. How were the storms that hit you on Sunday? They missed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Great thing to go to bed too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 How were the storms that hit you on Sunday? They missed me. Not bad...had like 3 seconds of pea-hail with about 10 stones! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Not bad...had like 3 seconds of pea-hail with about 10 stones! Cool! Better than the drizzle that I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Meh...no June 1st of last year. Reminds me more of june 6th in 2010...crappy destabilization and clouds hurt our chances...but we'll see over the next 24 hours. The shear is good, but it was amazing on June 6th that year and we got almost nothing anywhere. One weak rotation cell west of HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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