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May 4th - 16th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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Moisture/instability/low-level shear/forcing/strength of synoptic system were not as impressive today.

i'd have thought we'd get at least one red dot. but timmer was all bowdleing out earlier. sigh.

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i'd have thought we'd get at least one red dot. but timmer was all bowdleing out earlier. sigh.

ABR_00_obs.gif

I hope he wasn't actually comparing the two. I mean, yeah, Bowdle had similar cap questions and was in SD (I should know), but in terms of the environment, you'll never see a better sounding than that Aberdeen sounding.

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Looks like an active weather day is setting up in North Texas. Should have a weak surface low develop near Mineral Wells which will back the surface flow. Overall wind-shear values will remain weak, but higher then they were today. With extreme instability values over 5,000 joules per kilogram and deep layer shear of around 30-40 knots, plus OFBs from today's convection, I think some folks will be getting quite the storm on Sunday. Hail to hen eggs and damaging downbursts are my concern as well as lightning since it will be a Sunday with several outdoor events in progress. We might get a very brief spinup if a storm plays all it's cards right, but that's a pretty slim possibility IMO.

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12z NAM still showing convection forming across S Central KS into NE OK later today. High instability but still pretty weak on wind shear. 0-1km EHI does increase to around 3 or so in OK around 03z. Tulsa NWS is expecting up to baseball size hail.

Looks like gravity waves in S Central KS now.

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12z NAM still showing convection forming across S Central KS into NE OK later today. High instability but still pretty weak on wind shear. 0-1km EHI does increase to around 3 or so in OK around 03z. Tulsa NWS is expecting up to baseball size hail.

Looks like gravity waves in S Central KS now.

Heading to S Central KS now...

Zach you around? Where are you guys gonna target?

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Not seeing any severe t-storm warnings on those cells near KC but an Amateur radio report stated 60-70 MPH t-storm winds estimated near Hamilton, MO.

I've learned that when a HAM reports 60-70 MPH winds without an actual measurement, just chop about 30% to 40% off the report and that's what the real winds end up being. That usually goes for anyone.

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Heading to S Central KS now...

Zach you around? Where are you guys gonna target?

We broke down an hour and a half into our trip. We are stalled and waiting on our backup vehicle to get here after getting the initial vehicle towed back to Asheville. We have been forced to sit today out but will be underway later this afternoon. Planning to target southern TX Monday and Tuesday... possible risk in South Dakota on Thursday. We will have to see how the models shape up. Not much of a chance, but it only takes on surprise storm to make a trip worth it. We will have fun no matter what.

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We broke down an hour and a half into our trip. We are stalled and waiting on our backup vehicle to get here after getting the initial vehicle towed back to Asheville. We have been forced to sit today out but will be underway later this afternoon. Planning to target southern TX Monday and Tuesday... possible risk in South Dakota on Thursday. We will have to see how the models shape up. Not much of a chance, but it only takes on surprise storm to make a trip worth it. We will have fun no matter what.

That's why I always rent cars when I go long distance. Don't have to worry about paying for breakdowns or damage, and saves the wear and tear on my car. It's really not that expensive either.

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Seems like bust after bust the past few weeks.

From a subjective chasing-based perspective, I strongly agree. The pattern has been quite active with unseasonably-rich moisture available on the synoptic scale for most of the spring so far. What we have to show for all the "good parameter" days is relatively unimpressive. The recurring theme, in my eyes, has been troughs that hold back too far to the W of the target. The secondary problem has been BL moisture mixing out well beyond model forecasts. Both occurred yesterday. :lol:

April 14 was the saving grace for most chasers' sanity, or at least mine. It fell perhaps one peg short of my expectations during the daylight portion of the event, but was still one of the better dryline outbreaks you'll see that early in the year. Aside from that day, it has largely been an exhausting train of teases and low-payoff events... many of those with 50-100+ green SpotterNetwork icons returning home in disgrace at sunset. It's time for a break... and we're certainly getting one now, like it or not.

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That's why I always rent cars when I go long distance. Don't have to worry about paying for breakdowns or damage, and saves the wear and tear on my car. It's really not that expensive either.

Well it wasn't my car and it was a pretty customized chasing vehicle. We also have AAA so we didn't have to pay to tow it back. Either way, new slight up in southern TX on the new Day 2. Almost 0% tornado threat, but cells could be beautiful and have some big hail. We are headed to the Sonora, TX area when we get on the road here in an hour and a half.

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I see a possible threat in the Dakotas on Thursday.

I don't know, if you are already heading to TX, you may want to just stay there and see if that cutoff ejecting low delivers. GFS has quite a strong cross barrier flow...and strong easterly flow into southern Texas. Doesn't look impressive at all on 500 charts, but there is quite a strong STJ there with some surprisingly long hodographs and deep low level moisture.

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I hope he wasn't actually comparing the two. I mean, yeah, Bowdle had similar cap questions and was in SD (I should know), but in terms of the environment, you'll never see a better sounding than that Aberdeen sounding.

I actually believe that yesterday was a monumental waste of a "potential" environment over SE SD. The actual environment and soundings were worthless simply because the outflow-reinforced boundary refused to lift. If it had lifted to or just past I-90 as far W of Chamberlain, the sky was the limit. The synoptic setup was not too dissimilar to 2003-06-24 (Woonsocket/Manchester), though I do question whether we would have seen comparable moisture, given how badly everything mixed out in NE.

While the atmosphere is far too nonlinear to make these kind of assumptions in an absolute sense, to me, the stupid morning convection that tracked from SE SD into S MN wrecked one of the best-looking *potential* setups of the year.

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Tornado on the ground near EAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012
..TIME...   ...EVENT...	  ...CITY LOCATION...	 ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....	  ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
	    ..REMARKS..
0610 PM	 TORNADO		  OLATHE				  38.89N 94.81W
05/06/2012				   JOHNSON		    KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT
	    A TORNADO WAS REPORTED AT SANTA FE AND HIGHWAY 7.

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