Typhoon Tip Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Any signs of when this wx will end down the road? Please see my post on Page 1... It may take a long while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 This kind of wx isn't great now, but the pattern will be wonderful for us in GC etc. from middle/late May through the Summer. At that point troughs are our friend as it keeps the nasty heat and humidity away. I know there are some masochists in here that enjoy 95/75 stuff, but not me. LOL Here, here! 48.3/48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 NAM blows the warm front through tomorrow. Big change from previous NAM runs. Somewhat impressively unstable, too - convective indices are good in the LI, and CAPES would be up. I also see that as a helicity day, with mid level lingering NW flow over the top of SSW boundary layer ...veering near the top of the 0-6km depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 my solar panels do not like this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Somewhat impressively unstable, too - convective indices are good in the LI, and CAPES would be up. I also see that as a helicity day, with mid level lingering NW flow over the top of SSW boundary layer ...veering near the top of the 0-6km depth. Yeah I mentioned that in the NY thread. Those cluster of storms in the Hudson Valley could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I wonder if we can pull off a slight risk day in western ares tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 53 cloudy-some breaks trying to push into Western SNE per recent vis satelite Edit-looks like a solid low cloud deck under the retreating mid level deck though loop this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 They'll probably be some sun on Sunday and Monday, but I don't see an overall regime change over the next 2 weeks to be honest. Unless the final 10 days are very mild, May could be in jeopardy of coming in near normal or a tiny bit below? Thanks...all I want is average temps and sun...65-70 and sunny is great. Please see my post on Page 1... It may take a long while... Yeah I saw that, thanks Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Thanks...all I want is average temps and sun...65-70 and sunny is great. Yeah I saw that, thanks Tip. Sun would be nice, but this pattern offers up a lot of cloud chances with rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 They'll probably be some sun on Sunday and Monday, but I don't see an overall regime change over the next 2 weeks to be honest. Unless the final 10 days are very mild, May could be in jeopardy of coming in near normal or a tiny bit below? scott it seems that if we have this pattern for another 2 weeks (with average day time temps rising quickly/relatively speaking) we could be in line for something AT LEAST a tiny bit below normal....wouldn't u think...the possibility is on the table for something awful raw and damp and substantially below looking out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 scott it seems that if we have this pattern for another 2 weeks (with average day time temps rising quickly/relatively speaking) we could be in line for something AT LEAST a tiny bit below normal....wouldn't u think...the possibility is on the table for something awful raw and damp and substantially below looking out . Yeah it could be a little below. I mean I guess if you have a situation where the trough is a little more west and the flow is more srly and humid..you could have warmer night departures, but it seems like the pattern argues for temps a little below right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 We had a heck of a torrential dowpour last night around 11 PM or so. The ground is pretty soggy here now. Yeah I mentioned that in the NY thread. Those cluster of storms in the Hudson Valley could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 P/C includes possibilities of thunderstorms tonight. This would really not be likely before tomorrow, right? Love the night time ones, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Waa waa. This weather is great to work in. No blazing sun, no black flies, cool temps. Why do you care anyway? You're probably just hanging out inside playing with your playstation. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Seems like both the GFS and NAM are agreeing on low to mid 70s at BDL. Both also try to clear the clouds out later in the afternoon tomorrow. If that happens, they will be 75F+, if not, probably closer to 70F. Dews are mighty juicy I might add...probably near 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Wow, only 51 for a high temp at GON today. Cool and drizzly, blech!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 maybe some good storms if the sun can come out Seems like both the GFS and NAM are agreeing on low to mid 70s at BDL. Both also try to clear the clouds out later in the afternoon tomorrow. If that happens, they will be 75F+, if not, probably closer to 70F. Dews are mighty juicy I might add...probably near 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 We had a heck of a torrential dowpour last night around 11 PM or so. The ground is pretty soggy here now. I got over 0.6" last night. More in other nearby spots Just closed on a refi. Chachinnnngggg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 maybe some good storms if the sun can come out There will be some elevated CAPE tomorrow so its possible in western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 pretty impressive differences between NY/PA/WV and SNE. always fascinating to me how tough it is to scour out this dense low level junk once it gets pushed west. saturating low dewpoint air and adding onshore flow...boom...misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 There will definitely be elevated instability tomorrow in most areas. Decent lapse rates with a big K-Index push of warm moist air arriving on a 30-50kt LL to ML jet. Looks like a decent chance of tstms tonight in many areas especially ORH-EWB on west perhaps? But, this may envelop all areas in the morning. SREFs shove this MCS actually through NNE so still some uncertainty it seems in placement. Euro is just SW of SREF placement. Tomorrow may feature the warm sector tickling BDL, but may be a case where CT valley is cool from srly flow off the ocean to the south.Seems like SW CT into adjacent NY and NJ has a shot at some severe potential if instability is realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Where was this in February? I know, not a winter pattern...yada yada This is stubborn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Sultan signal may be needed later next week. Looks cool and wet through the next two weeks, but it's possible it may transition to a more humid type pattern if the trough moves just a bit west. Not 80/65 humid..but maybe more of a 65/60 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Sultan signal may be needed later next week. Looks cool and wet through the next two weeks, but it's possible it may transition to a more humid type pattern if the trough moves just a bit west. Not 80/65 humid..but maybe more of a 65/60 deal. Yeah look like tomorrow may be muggy as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 There will definitely be elevated instability tomorrow in most areas. Decent lapse rates with a big K-Index push of warm moist air arriving on a 30-50kt LL to ML jet. Looks like a decent chance of tstms tonight in many areas especially ORH-EWB on west perhaps? But, this may envelop all areas in the morning. SREFs shove this MCS actually through NNE so still some uncertainty it seems in placement. Euro is just SW of SREF placement. Tomorrow may feature the warm sector tickling BDL, but may be a case where CT valley is cool from srly flow off the ocean to the south.Seems like SW CT into adjacent NY and NJ has a shot at some severe potential if instability is realized. i think tomorrow would be an interesting day a little later in the spring/summer season. would have some good things going for it. hopefully some good rains around the region with this...NAM soundings would suggest you could have downpours/storms rumbling through at just about anypoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 i think tomorrow would be an interesting day a little later in the spring/summer season. would have some good things going for it. hopefully some good rains around the region with this...NAM soundings would suggest you could have downpours/storms rumbling through at just about anypoint. Yeah this isn't probably going to put out anything more than some heavy rain and some rumbles here..maybe DXR area sees more interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 you don't see training severe in early May as far N as middle Michigan very often... That's really unusual actually... fascinating. The problem with the warm boundary tomorrow is that is does have a narrow 6-9 hour window where the deep layer mechanics would allow it to get to central NE, but there are two forces in the lower troposphere conspiring to draw a circle around SNE and prevent warm penetration: 1) near saturated cold BL will not erode out without a 22kt (index finger method) southerly component at 850mb\ 2) MCS activity adds to # 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Yeah this isn't probably going to put out anything more than some heavy rain and some rumbles here..maybe DXR area sees more interesting stuff. Yeah DXR is the only place in SNE that has any real tstorm potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 if you loop this time sensitive image you can see one of the better illustrations of a phenomenon I've often discussed in the past, where a dank heavy cold stagnated air mass gets dug in between the cordillera west, and the ocean east, and the rest of the atmosphere just rolls over it: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php?load=vis Without any mechanics to move this crap ...it may as well be L.A. Basin smog - trapped! I have seen these sort of set ups survive 2 or even 3 synoptic cycles and still manage to persist. It's a condition unique to spring in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Tips on the edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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