It's Always Sunny Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Getting ready to make the drive to OK with 'kevlon62'. Early target call for tomorrow looks to be somewhere NW/W of OKC. Good call, that's where I would go too if I was chasing. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Getting ready to make the drive to OK with 'kevlon62'. Early target call for tomorrow looks to be somewhere NW/W of OKC. Perfect, My ground zero is the US 412 and US 60 intersection. Careful on your positioning relative to the Cimmaron River, there's only a handful of crossings. Good Luck and be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Still thinking Kansas/I-35 corrdior ICT to MKC/MCI is the biggest target. Oklahoma is much more isolated, it looks like off NAM, but lone potential monsters potential. That NAM suggested isolated storms that do form in OK West/SW of OKC d looks they have all the ingredients, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I'm sitting in a Holiday Inn on the northwest side of OKC. I could have headed back to Dallas from Southwest Oklahoma but decided to just get a room through Sunday up here so I didn't have a five hour drive tomorrow morning. Winds are roaring out of the southeast tonight and you can sense something is on the way. I haven't had a chance to look at model data for Friday or Saturday yet since I just got in after driving for a few hours. I'm just hoping I have a hotel to return to tomorrow evening and once again on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I mean, it's not even just the unfavorable jet orientation, but the delayed forcing due to the positive tilt of the trough, the stout EML consisting of H7 temps over 7-8C, and the weak VV's progged by the NAM at 00Z. Agree 110% even the 12z's had me concerned about convective initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 SPC Day 1. SLGHT RISK, 10% TOR, NW OK. HOWEVER...BY THIS EVENING...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A FOCUSED AREA OF STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION... BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY...INCLUDING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. COINCIDING WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850 WIND FIELDS /30-50+ KT/...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE OR TWO COULD BE STRONG...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WANES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 SPC Day 1. SLGHT RISK, 10% TOR, NW OK. HOWEVER...BY THIS EVENING...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A FOCUSED AREA OF STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION... BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY...INCLUDING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. COINCIDING WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850 WIND FIELDS /30-50+ KT/...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE OR TWO COULD BE STRONG...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WANES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. mention of possible strong tornadoes but no hatching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Some pretty big changes on the northern portion of the risk area. The last Day2 had hatched probs all the way into southeast NE/southwest IA. Those areas aren't even included in the slight on this updated outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I'm not convinced of sfc-based initiation tomorrow, but the SPC WRF does initiate a lone supercell over NW OK tomorrow and keeps it isolated in that region between 00Z-06Z. The motion and location of that supercell more or less matches the 10% risk area from SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 mention of possible strong tornadoes but no hatching. Probably uncertain about the convective evolution. Maybe discrete supercells for only a short time before it becomes a big blob of an MCS. Elevated overnight stuff firing here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I'm not convinced of sfc-based initiation tomorrow, but the SPC WRF does initiate a lone supercell over NW OK tomorrow and keeps it isolated in that region between 00Z-06Z. The motion and location of that supercell more or less matches the 10% risk area from SPC. Where you getting the SPC WRF? The place I get it didn't update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 SPC will be going High Risk with the new day 2 outlook from OKC to Central Kansas... (Internal chat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 Wow...first ever 06z Day 2 High Risk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 SPC will be going High Risk with the new day 2 outlook from OKC to Central Kansas... (Internal chat) And it's out with this headline: TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 SPC will be going High Risk with the new day 2 outlook from OKC to Central Kansas... (Internal chat) That kind of surprises me after some of the model runs tonight. Seems like there are too many questions left about the timing for a Day 2 High Risk. Maybe that is just me though. Well, when's the last Day 2 High Risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX...CNTRL AND WRN OK...CNTRL AND ERN KS...SE NEB...NW MO AND FAR SW IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY...UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS... TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS ECNTRL KS...CNTRL OK INTO NW TX. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NAM AND NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA KS SWD TO AROUND OKLAHOMA CITY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 60 TO 75 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE AND LOOPED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD TO OKLAHOMA CITY. 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST DUE TO THE EXPECTED INTENSE NATURE OF THE STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO QUESTION. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. ...MID-MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH STORMS EXPANDING NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH A DRYLINE LOCATED IN ECNTRL NEB. THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...THE GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS SERN NEB...SW IA...NW MO AND ERN KS WHERE A MODERATE RISK IS LOCATED. ...NW TX/WCNTRL TX... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING FROM WRN OK SSWWD ACROSS NW TX INTO WCNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH OR GREATER HAIL DUE TO THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE EVENING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 04/13/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Where you getting the SPC WRF? The place I get it didn't update. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 That is some wording for a day 2 outlook. I wonder if last years incredibly deadly season (and the bad start this year) is factoring in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/00/ Blah caching issue. Had to restart browser, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 The I-35 corridor is going to be a madhouse with all the chasers. I am looking forward to being out there, but hopefully people don't drive recklessly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 And here's why it's there... Those are some pretty decent vertical velocities being spit out by both the GFS and NAM by 00z. And they only get stronger after dark, without the boundary layer being decoupled. Unfortunately, the worst of this will probably be quite bad and be at night. Throw the book out the window in term of your diurnal plains tornado climatology on this one, folks. With 65+ dews and a 60kt LLJ, your SB instability is going nowhere after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Broyles strikes again! I agree w/him regarding the issue of lack of model precip breaking out...it only suggests to me that the coverage will be scattered and discrete, but that might not necessarily be a negative in terms of how severe the tornado outbreak ends up being. The timing of the trough ejection is still and always has been the biggest question mark, but it would take a substantial slow down from here on out to prevent a major tornado outbreak from occurring, and frankly we're running out of time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_chip Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 And to think, models aren't even in agreement with Saturday initiation...0z NAM hints at small spatial coverage with a cell or two in Red River Valley and near the triple point with nothing in KS at all. GFS has entire dryline exploding by 0z Sunday. Chip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 And to think, models aren't even in agreement with Saturday initiation...0z NAM hints at small spatial coverage with a cell or two in Red River Valley and near the triple point with nothing in KS at all. GFS has entire dryline exploding by 0z Sunday. Chip Hi-res NAM has a bunch of strong VV signatures going up along/ahead of the dryline by 00z Saturday evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Glad to see you all have come to the dark side (using vv's) Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 Has quite strong discussion for the northern area too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I suppose this would be a good time for OUN to start mentioning tornadoes in their HWO for Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 And to think, models aren't even in agreement with Saturday initiation...0z NAM hints at small spatial coverage with a cell or two in Red River Valley and near the triple point with nothing in KS at all. GFS has entire dryline exploding by 0z Sunday. Chip Just my personal opinion but this has a bust potential written on it. Just doesn't give me much confidence that the 12z and 0z nam and gfs haven't come into better agreement over time. But since I said this I jinxed myself so plan on another epic outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 I suppose this would be a good time for OUN to start mentioning tornadoes in their HWO for Saturday... Lol, this times a million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_chip Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Good point. However, GFS has weaker vv's and still breaks the "cap" while the NAM doesn't. It could have something to do with grid spacing and thresholds, but still, something to watch. My only issue with vv's is that they look at a single layer without reference to the entire column. Chip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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