powderfreak Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 SkiMRGs hair is slowly falling out to accommodate the warm.. hahaha... I bet he's crying to his mama right now. I bet he's skiing on the dark brown parking lot plow type snow right now. Hey skiMRG how come no pictures of cold street today??? I love global warming. Drip, drip, drip today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Exactly We wind up with a very muted warm signal for March. In July/August this wouldn't be record warmth... it would be a stagnant and increasingly humid airmass. I think 80s will be hard to reach in most locations. Upper 60s/low 70s the rule for the most part. That's still a pretty good torch given the time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 How anybody can call this months torch and next weeks +20-+30 departures muted is comical, lol, how warm is supposed to get this time of year? Sure is warm bro, nice week, not epic and certainly not getting near 90 LST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Sure is warm bro, nice week, not epic and certainly not getting near 90 LST At least up here, the record highs are going to be comical. The closest thing BTV can find to this is a stretch of 70 degree days at Saint Johnsbury in the northeast kingdom in 1903. They are forecasting record highs for 5 days in a row at every site, and not just by a couple degrees but by like 10-15F above the RECORDS (not normal). I find that amazing... 1 in 100 year heat event for this time period based on the records that go back that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Don't you usually break records by like a degree or two, maybe 3F.... but man if we get a string of days that shatters records by over 10 degrees each day... wow. Record high at Montpelier being 58F and forecasting 72F, lol. 58F would be cool compared to what we are about to see. RECORD BREAKING TEMPS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK... THE RECORD IN BTV ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH IS 62 SET BACK IN 1945...AND OUR FCST TEMP AT BTV FOR SUNDAY IS 74F. MEANWHILE...THE RECORD HIGH AT MPV IS ONLY 58 SET BACK IN 1966...AND WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH TEMP OF 72F ON SUNDAY MARCH 18TH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 At least up here, the record highs are going to be comical. The closest thing BTV can find to this is a stretch of 70 degree days at Saint Johnsbury in the northeast kingdom in 1903. They are forecasting record highs for 5 days in a row at every site, and not just by a couple degrees but by like 10-15F above the RECORDS (not normal). I find that amazing... 1 in 100 year heat event for this time period based on the records that go back that far. Well lets see what shakes out. The good news is Adam likes a -EPO -NAO for end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 I will take that in March, 20-30 degrees above normal, not bad. Absolutely. It's absolutely a torch. Not sure why some people let their expectations get way beyond what the synoptic pattern would allow for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 At least up here, the record highs are going to be comical. The closest thing BTV can find to this is a stretch of 70 degree days at Saint Johnsbury in the northeast kingdom in 1903. They are forecasting record highs for 5 days in a row at every site, and not just by a couple degrees but by like 10-15F above the RECORDS (not normal). I find that amazing... 1 in 100 year heat event for this time period based on the records that go back that far. Yeah that's amazing stuff. NNE is going to absolutely rip a torch next week. Down here it will be warm... but likely below record levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Well lets see what shakes out. The good news is Adam likes a -EPO -NAO for end of the month. Yeah I do like the idea of a colder period and maybe even some snows again early April... but I'm just in awe with what the next 7 days could bring. I just can't wrap my head around breaking records *that* much... I mean BTV is a long-term climo site going back to 1882 and on Sunday they are forecasting 12F above the highest temp ever seen on that date in the last 130 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Absolutely. It's absolutely a torch. Not sure why some people let their expectations get way beyond what the synoptic pattern would allow for. No way. It's not a torch unless we're destroying record highs by at least 10 degrees. Definition. If we're just tying records, not even close to justifying a "torch" </:weenie:> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Yeah I do like the idea of a colder period and maybe even some snows again early April... but I'm just in awe with what the next 7 days could bring. I just can't wrap my head around breaking records *that* much... I mean BTV is a long-term climo site going back to 1882 and on Sunday they are forecasting 12F above the highest temp ever seen on that date in the last 130 years. Gonna be special for sure. I am a little skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 No way. It's not a torch unless we're destroying record highs by at least 10 degrees. Definition. If we're just tying records, not even close to justifying a "torch" </ > Frisbee golf back to snowshoeing inside a weeks time? Brutal shock if the Euro is right, 80's to upper teens for highs for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Frisbee golf back to snowshoeing inside a weeks time? Brutal shock if the Euro is right, 80's to upper teens for highs for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Absolutely. It's absolutely a torch. Not sure why some people let their expectations get way beyond what the synoptic pattern would allow for. Who had expectations of anything more though? Thats what I do not understand, just like in November when models show epic vodka cold, reality would suggest as the event nears temps would moderate and in this case cool. So far guidance has busted cool on the forecasted torch days this month, with fairly meager 850 temps. Interior new england is going to be very warm, with records being broken on a daily basis. For the coast, some sort of westerly wind component has to materialize or else its a very pleasant week of well above normal temps. Either way its ridiculously warm for most of the northeast, the weather should be perfect for anything a weenie wants to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 The whole dynamic of the discussion can be quite funny...many of the same people who tone down Kevin's enthusiasm for heavy snow totals in CT (like the 3/1 event) are the same ones who said widespread 80s is going to be a stretch too...and now people are railing on them for "downplaying the torch". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Yeah that's amazing stuff. NNE is going to absolutely rip a torch next week. Down here it will be warm... but likely below record levels. What I think is funny if this pans out... is the records up here at places like BTV, Montpelier, Saint Johnsbury (the long term climo sites) will be in the 50s and low 60s leading up to March 18th, then all the sudden you'll have a 5 day stretch of like low to mid 70s for records, then they'll drop back down in the 60s once this is all done, haha. This week will stand out on the climate sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 possibly the worst day ever... mid 30's with miserymist™ It's pretty bad unilaterally... At 41F and soaking wet down here in Mass, not a whole helluva lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Who had expectations of anything more though? Thats what I do not understand, "70's 80's for days and days, wonder who can touch 90?" Guess who? Beautiful weather incoming though, top ten week. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 "70's 80's for days and days, wonder who can touch 90?" Guess who? Beautiful weather incoming though, top ten week. Enjoy Come on steve, lol, you honestly think kev was even being remotely serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Who had expectations of anything more though? Thats what I do not understand, just like in November when models show epic vodka cold, reality would suggest as the event nears temps would moderate and in this case cool. So far guidance has busted cool on the forecasted torch days this month, with fairly meager 850 temps. Interior new england is going to be very warm, with records being broken on a daily basis. For the coast, some sort of westerly wind component has to materialize or else its a very pleasant week of well above normal temps. Either way its ridiculously warm for most of the northeast, the weather should be perfect for anything a weenie wants to do. days and days of 70s/80s, all-time record warmth, 90s, warmest March on record, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Come on steve, lol, you honestly think kev was even being remotely serious? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 wonder what A student will say about the Euro he humped like Wiz does a cardboard cutout last week for the incoming torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 This is obscene... just read BTV's discussion to get the big picture here. Shattering record highs, overnight lows that are 10-15F above our "average highs", maybe some over 80F readings in the larger valleys, temperatures that are "normal" for mid-June. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 415 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO CHANGE TO WHAT WE EXPECT AS THE BIG WEATHER EVENT NEXT WEEK. HEAT. IN FACT, IT WILL BE MORE LIKE MID- JUNE WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. WE WILL DEFINITELY BE SHATTERING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE WEEK. HERE ARE DAILY SPECIFICS... TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: RIDGE BUILDS AND WARMTH COMES IN FULL FORCE. WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-11C, AND 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C. WITH ALL THE SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE EXCELLENT MIXING AND BE ABLE TO REALIZE ALL OF THAT WARMTH. THAT SHOULD WORK OUT TO LOTS OF UPPER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EVEN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL TOP OUT ABOVE 70. WENT 78F AT BTV ON TUESDAY (8 DEGREES ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH) AND 79F ON WEDNESDAY (11 DEGREES ABOVE THE RECORD). MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE WAY TOO COOL AS IT STILL IS USING WINTER EQUATIONS, WHICH ASSUME SNOW COVER. IN FACT, THE LACK OF SNOW AND NO LEAVES OUT MAY MEAN THAT WE COULD SEE REALLY GOOD NEAR SURFACE HEATING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS TOP OUT OVER 80F. OVER NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S -- EVEN THAT IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE OUR NORMAL HIGHS. INCREDIBLE! THURSDAY: STILL LOOKS VERY WARM WITH RECORD HIGHS AGAIN EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 days and days of 70s/80s, all-time record warmth, 90s, warmest March on record, etc. BTV is showing 5-6 days of 70s for all zones and maybe some 80s not out of the question, lol... so the "days and days of 70s/80s" and all-time record warmth isn't really out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 Jeez - if that extended Euro works out...kiss the warmest March ever good bye... That air mass at the tale end of that run, not to mention...any deeper with that trough (d10) and we're talking epic blizz, would correct all the warm damage down like a roofer with and heart attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Jeez - if that extended Euro works out...kiss the warmest March ever good bye... That air mass at the tale end of that run, not to mention...any deeper with that trough (d10) and we're talking epic blizz, would correct all the warm damage down like a roofer with and heart attack Euro ENS fully on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Well, it could still be in the top few warm March's, even if that verifies... 41F for a high here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 this winter has taken a toll on a lot of people. hurricanejosh was frothing with delight over extreme cold and now powderfreak is all amped up over extreme warmth. if BayBreeze-Rich mumbles anything about it being too hot this summer, I'll start taking all the 2012 doomsday stuff a lot more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 If the euro has a clue that would be one heck of a shock to alot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 Well, it could still be in the top few warm March's, even if that verifies... 41F for a high here I doubt it verifies frankly ... I have seen the model flip on massive field orientations on just about every run going D10 to 9 over the past 5 days. That solution is more of a result of spring time modeling stochastics. I bet in two runs it has a ridge back again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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