weatherMA Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Sunday will be quite warm. Scooter sneaky warm day into mid to perhaps upper 70s in spots in the Merrimack valley and srn NH. Next week will have a few variables..one of them is the shape and orientiation of the surface high. If it's sort of elongated to the west over the MA then we torch. However if it is further north and more concise...then it's more of a weaker gradient deal with less mixing shaving off a few degrees. LOL...yeah the first day of a warm-up I always add 3-5F on forecast highs...it always seems to torch despite cold morning temps. What did the EC/EC ENS have for day 8-10? Cool down for next weekend or waiting until next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 NCEP "...Dynamical model MJO index forecasts show the MJO remaining active through the period, although there is some spread amongst the models about the phase by the end of the period. The MJO is forecast to remain active and shift to the western Pacific during the upcoming 1-2 weeks...." We've been heavily discussing how/why the MJO is apparently less effective at modulating the circulation system as a whole, due to it either being in a constructive or deconstructive phase space with regard to the background ENSO state. More importantly, how this particular season's relationship between the MJO and ENSO has pretty much annihilated the hopes and dreams of the teary - eyed winter weary. The last romp the wave took through 7-8-1, our best correlator for eastern N/A long wave positioning, produced 0 results. Contrasting, the wave passes with similar momentum through the right side of the Wheeler diagram and the correlation has lept to the forefront like the solo artist of the Nut Cracker - and that's what it has meant for those hoping on last season recuperation of winter. However, we've also been discussing that the wave lengths are observablly shrinking, quite consistent with an aging March of any given year. What that means is that these teleconnectors et al, from the MJO dynamics, to the purer statistics of the EPO, NAO...etc, they all apply correlations differently than they do during DJF. What that may mean in simple terms is that we have a pretty interesting dice roll coming up as to how the MJO might exert/force orientation on the atmosphere. Currently, NCEP's prog rages the wave into late Phase 6, strengthening as it goes - quite impressively at that. Meanwhile, the CDC, EPO progs continued to show a descending index of some 2 standard deviations across the next 10 days. I find it interesting that the Euro Weeklies have been hitting at some retrograde as of late. That implies here that you got some convergence there (I think) from disparate, veracious sources, that is pointing toward a cooler profile - certainly comparative to what is in store for this week, as we close out the month. This was also discussed some earlier in this thread, but the perpose presently is to outline that the signal has grown yet more. I would say on a scale of 1 to 10, we just went from a 5, to a 6 in terms of confidence - 60% as a rough estimate is pretty good for 7-10 days out and beyond. It will be interesting for me to see how the MJO parlays any influence into the EPO's relay into N/A. The two have no dependency on one another - that I am aware - but this can be witnessed at any given time. The EPO curve meanders around while the MJO is off in its own world. But if the two happen to time well together, look out. That's pretty much it in a nut shell this morning. There is increasing probability over all that the warmth (the operational Euro has been engineering less warmth for 3 cycles and counting now, anyone else notice that? ... I see problems with those runs, though) of next week may be rudely corrected the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Still somewhat of a yo yo on ch 7..lol. I actually had someone ask me why the temp changed 12 degrees from one person to the other. So...the public does notice. Pete two nights ago: 82 Dylan next morning: 70 Pete last night: 77 Dylan this morning: 71 :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 LOL...yeah the first day of a warm-up I always add 3-5F on forecast highs...it always seems to torch despite cold morning temps. What did the EC/EC ENS have for day 8-10? Cool down for next weekend or waiting until next week? They both had a cool down starting next weekend. Nothing really cold, but they both have troughing moving into the northeast. The euro op develops a cutoff from hell well to the south, but it's just a little too warm for frozen stuff. The EC ensembles don't have this specific low, but I wouldn't expect a smoothed out mean to show that solution...especially since the euro op may not be right anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 They both had a cool down starting next weekend. Nothing really cold, but they both have troughing moving into the northeast. The euro op develops a cutoff from hell well to the south, but it's just a little too warm for frozen stuff. The EC ensembles don't have this specific low, but I wouldn't expect a smoothed out mean to show that solution...especially since the euro op may not be right anyways. Thanks Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Pete two nights ago: 82 Dylan next morning: 70 Pete last night: 77 Dylan this morning: 71 :lol: They are polar opposites when it comes to forecasting. I see why Pete has temps like that up, but he always swings for the fences and those temps might not reflect what happens on the coast. She just rips and reads and is very conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Thanks Scott. The end of the month might feature a good storm in some shape or form. Some signals for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Days and days of 70s and 80s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Days and days of 70s and 80s! KFS fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Days and days of 70s and 80s! a heavy colder rain shower just came through, nasty torch day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 NCEP "...Dynamical model MJO index forecasts show the MJO remaining active through the period, although there is some spread amongst the models about the phase by the end of the period. The MJO is forecast to remain active and shift to the western Pacific during the upcoming 1-2 weeks...." We've been heavily discussing how/why the MJO is apparently less effective at modulating the circulation system as a whole, due to it either being in a constructive or deconstructive phase space with regard to the background ENSO state. More importantly, how this particular season's relationship between the MJO and ENSO has pretty much annihilated the hopes and dreams of the teary - eyed winter weary. The last romp the wave took through 7-8-1, our best correlator for eastern N/A long wave positioning, produced 0 results. Contrasting, the wave passes with similar momentum through the right side of the Wheeler diagram and the correlation has lept to the forefront like the solo artist of the Nut Cracker - and that's what it has meant for those hoping on last season recuperation of winter. However, we've also been discussing that the wave lengths are observablly shrinking, quite consistent with an aging March of any given year. What that means is that these teleconnectors et al, from the MJO dynamics, to the purer statistics of the EPO, NAO...etc, they all apply correlations differently than they do during DJF. What that may mean in simple terms is that we have a pretty interesting dice roll coming up as to how the MJO might exert/force orientation on the atmosphere. Currently, NCEP's prog rages the wave into late Phase 6, strengthening as it goes - quite impressively at that. Meanwhile, the CDC, EPO progs continued to show a descending index of some 2 standard deviations across the next 10 days. I find it interesting that the Euro Weeklies have been hitting at some retrograde as of late. That implies here that you got some convergence there (I think) from disparate, veracious sources, that is pointing toward a cooler profile - certainly comparative to what is in store for this week, as we close out the month. This was also discussed some earlier in this thread, but the perpose presently is to outline that the signal has grown yet more. I would say on a scale of 1 to 10, we just went from a 5, to a 6 in terms of confidence - 60% as a rough estimate is pretty good for 7-10 days out and beyond. It will be interesting for me to see how the MJO parlays any influence into the EPO's relay into N/A. The two have no dependency on one another - that I am aware - but this can be witnessed at any given time. The EPO curve meanders around while the MJO is off in its own world. But if the two happen to time well together, look out. That's pretty much it in a nut shell this morning. There is increasing probability over all that the warmth (the operational Euro has been engineering less warmth for 3 cycles and counting now, anyone else notice that? ... I see problems with those runs, though) of next week may be rudely corrected the next week. Good summary. Yeah you wonder of the MJO will continue to have a descontructive look to the pattern...or will these shorter wavelenghts actually allow it to have more of a contructive interference to the pattern...IE produce the pattern that correlates to P7-8 or so. The cutoff next week is sort of throwing a wrench to those that expect days of 80+. I don't see this as a "classic" delivery of heat into SNE...instead we may have to wait until the cold front brings the warmest temps aloft, along with compressional heating into the area late this week? I mean either way it's still warm across SNE...no questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Days and days of 70s and 80s! Make sure Doppler has plenty of water next week. Also, make sure to mention for people to check on their elderly neighbors or relatives when you go on air this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 They are polar opposites when it comes to forecasting. I see why Pete has temps like that up, but he always swings for the fences and those temps might not reflect what happens on the coast. She just rips and reads and is very conservative. Yeah its true...esp. with snow totals she's really really conservative....but a lot of times she has to up them b/c of Pete...although not last storm...Pete scored a lucky coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 Good summary. Yeah you wonder of the MJO will continue to have a descontructive look to the pattern...or will these shorter wavelenghts actually allow it to have more of a contructive interference to the pattern...IE produce the pattern that correlates to P7-8 or so. The cutoff next week is sort of throwing a wrench to those that expect days of 80+. I don't see this as a "classic" delivery of heat into SNE...instead we may have to wait until the cold front brings the warmest temps aloft, along with compressional heating into the area late this week? I mean either way it's still warm across SNE...no questions. Doesn't seem that way, no. However, it wasn't originally modeled that way 3 or 5 days ago, or whever it was that it become more agreed upon by the various model types. They all at one time or another, and at the same time at that, had the ridge node centered near CLE, with ample resistent geopotential medium enveloping all of New England - that would have delivered a nice continental warm conveyor on generally light winds. I.e., more ideal. It seems that same old background progressivity to the flow we've seen all damn year is rearing its ugly influence again. Now, take the operational GFS...that 582dm circumvallate is now centered SE of ACK! In fact, whether the "KFS" model sees it or not, the whole of the thing is almost a negative tilted trough lifting up the eastern seaboard "IF" that close feature were to drill east any more and forcibly open up... I don't see that happening though. Anyway, this whole thing to me looks like one of those classic scenarios where the models see a 5 day long cold or hot departure, and what verifies is something closer to 2 days and about 1SD less than originally thought. I.e., typical over doing it at extended range type deal. We'll see... I 'm sure if we can get 3 days of near 70 with one in the middle that nears 80, that will justify the hoopla, but it will also be shy of what the era really appealed like 3 or so days ago. Then the pattern changes colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 By the way ...I thought the forsythias were in Ayer, but I took a closer look and I was wrong. Sugar maples are a little swollen though – nothing unusual so far. Not sure what all the hoopla’s about; the same way down here in Westborough – no unusually early bud swelling to report. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Boy if the 12Z Nam is right, Saturday afternoon Messenger's weenie is frozen to his banana hammock, LL and Brian are high fiving naked in the outdoor shower while Phil and Scott Messenger are huddled next to the wood stove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 a heavy colder rain shower just came through, nasty torch day It's funny that you mention colder, because I was under the impression based on yesterday's terrible weather that it would clock in well below normal, yet BOX shows it as a +5 kind of day, solidly above normal, despite the continual "my weather is worse than yours" contest going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 By the way ...I thought the forsythias were in Ayer, but I took a closer look and I was wrong. Sugar maples are a little swollen though – nothing unusual so far. Not sure what all the hoopla’s about; the same way down here in Westborough – no unusually early bud swelling to report. Interesting. There's no hoopla.. its just Kevin and litchfields Weenies making up more idiocracy.. Can't wait for that euro cutoff low to set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 It's funny that you mention colder, because I was under the impression based on yesterday's terrible weather that it would clock in well below normal, yet BOX shows it as a +5 kind of day, solidly above normal, despite the continual "my weather is worse than yours" contest going on here. Yesterday was a plus 2 day. I am not quite understanding your post. When it rained here the temp dropped from 42 to 39 now back to 42. Who is having a contest? Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Ginx, I think Saturday was always a meh day along that coast. Still on track for a decent day inland and a great day for all on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Sunday looks spectacular on the Nam especially interior. top ten day for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Ginx, I think Saturday was always a meh day along that coast. Still on track for a decent day inland and a great day for all on Sunday. Yea thats what MOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Tip and Sammy on their road trip > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 Boy if the 12Z Nam is right, Saturday afternoon Messenger's weenie is frozen to his banana hammock, LL and Brian are high fiving naked in the outdoor shower while Phil and Scott Messenger are huddled next to the wood stove. Yeah ...the big turn around for themn on this NAM run is Sunday... Saturday is ding donged pretty bad on the coast; could be 63 ish as near by as ORH though. although, Mess' can get messed with even the other direction by pure virtue of thermal differential... If it goes to 74 in the immediate interior SE part of Mass, and the wind is only 10kts going off shore, it will turn around to ~10 miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Man new NAM is not good for sun until tomorrow aftn. That sucks and hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?on-143&unit=i ^^Amazing forecast. Our average high is 41F and overnight low is 25F lol. We could break the record high for today that was set back in 1945, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Tip and Sammy on their road trip that was great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 39/38, cold, raw. ORH still at 36F, nasty day but will probably go in as normal or even +1. One day break then the torch continues on this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 Tip and Sammy on their road trip > LOL, yeah I play alot of DG - that would be trip, no doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2012 Author Share Posted March 16, 2012 that was great Not it's below normal - period... at least as of the current hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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