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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Yea but other years they can be in the 30s. It definitely helps some. Not saying it will be 70 at Long Beach in March with a south wind but it won't be as bad as it can be like in other years.

Western LI sound is 41-44.

Other years it would be 37-40 right now. Little difference to our weather.

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted

Western LI sound is 41-44.

Other years it would be 37-40 right now. Little difference to our weather.

How can the sound be that cold? We were over +6 for all of February and same thing so far this March.

I got Kings point at 48 and some places on the Jersey shore are pushing toward 50 already. The water temp at Sandy Hook is almost 10 degrees above normal!!! Craziness.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Yea but other years they can be in the 30s. It definitely helps some. Not saying it will be 70 at Long Beach in March with a south wind but it won't be as bad as it can be like in other years.

Always a question also when the seabreeze front pushes through. Sometimes with a strong enough westerly flow we luck out and never get the seabreeze, but this time of year especially it almost always wins. If we hold it off until 1pm or so we can heat up to near where the city is, but if not we get stuck in the 40s or low 50s.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

NAM has cooled off with the temps today for whatever reason...looks like 68 for a high in NYC on the 12z run.

We'll have to see. DCA/PHL/NYC are all in the same spot right now at 56/53/55 respectively. If we're like 59/60 at the noon ob then 70 might still be in reach.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Will 80F be reached this month? Looking more like mid 70s at their highest and then the ridge may start breaking down toward the end of the month.

We have a chance before the pattern finally fades near the end of the 6-10 day ahead of the cold front.

Newark made it to 80 last March ahead of a cold front. We would need the Euro ensembles and GFS

ensembles to verify for it to happen.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

Posted
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Posted

But by the time this warm pattern breaks down wouldn't it be near April which we get warmer anyways?

April isn't quite a lock for sustained warm weather.. we can still get killed by cut-off/ BDCF type patterns where we get persistent wind flow off the water. I'm usually not confident in sustained warmth until May comes around, but this winter has been a different animal, so all bets are off.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

The waters can also be slow to warm in most years, sometimes only in the low to mid 50s in early to mid June so those east winds are killer.

Agree-i've seen upper 50's to near 60 here as late as mid-June. Water proximity doesn't help in that regard...I'm going to enjoy this as long as it lasts....up to 64 here now. BDR is chillier, but they are right on the water. I'm 5 miles inland

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

Upton is gonna have their hands full with temp forecasts later this week into the weekend. It is really tough to get a sense of what is going to happen w/respect to wind direction and cloud cover. Synoptically, there really isn't a good push in any particular direction.

Going to be a bummer if the weekend turns out crappy....was looking foward to a nice beautiful st pattys day

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
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Today/tomorrow still look like the warmest day of the week to me, with the next surge of big warmth probably waiting until Sunday or early next week. Wednesday's a beautiful day before the backdoor cold front comes through, and MOS is likely overdone right now for highs Thurs-Sat. 50s is a safe bet for most Thurs-Sat, though I fully expect the NJ shore and coastal areas NYC east to be struggling into the low 50s Thurs-Sat, maybe even 45-50 for some. Definitely looks like a fairly strong backdoor with sfc high pressure building and holding to the northeast of New England. Weekend, especially Saturday, doesn't look pretty either for PHL northeast. No doubt the most consistent sig pos departures will be in the OH valley/Mid-west w/ this pattern, but I still think 80F+ is possible early next week as the ridge reaches its climax.

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Analog96

Analog96

Posted
Posted

Today/tomorrow still look like the warmest day of the week to me, with the next surge of big warmth probably waiting until Sunday or early next week. Wednesday's a beautiful day before the backdoor cold front comes through, and MOS is likely overdone right now for highs Thurs-Sat. 50s is a safe bet for most Thurs-Sat, though I fully expect the NJ shore and coastal areas NYC east to be struggling into the low 50s Thurs-Sat, maybe even 45-50 for some. Definitely looks like a fairly strong backdoor with sfc high pressure building and holding to the northeast of New England. Weekend, especially Saturday, doesn't look pretty either for PHL northeast. No doubt the most consistent sig pos departures will be in the OH valley/Mid-west w/ this pattern, but I still think 80F+ is possible early next week as the ridge reaches its climax.

Saturday should be chilly, probably with rain at times, and highs only around 50. However, beyond that, the BIG torch comes the first half of next week. I still think there are a few days that could get into the mid and (maybe even perhaps) a few upper 80s.

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nycsnow

nycsnow

Posted
Posted

Saturday should be chilly, probably with rain at times, and highs only around 50. However, beyond that, the BIG torch comes the first half of next week. I still think there are a few days that could get into the mid and (maybe even perhaps) a few upper 80s.

So much for a nice st pattys day

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