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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

18z GFS was an absolute torch...10C 850s clear Maine and extend to James Bay middle of next week...it didn't show much of a cooldown in the long-range either.

Yeah historic pattern evolving no doubt. Probably going to see some massive snow melts in the coming week across NNE.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

18z GFS was an absolute torch...10C 850s clear Maine and extend to James Bay middle of next week...it didn't show much of a cooldown in the long-range either.

Shocker. This torch will not be denied. I think we easily hit the warmest march ever...we've had a good head start...it's not going to just be a week of crazy warmth, it will be 3 out of 4 weeks when you total it up.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

Shocker. This torch will not be denied. I think we easily hit the warmest march ever...we've had a good head start...it's not going to just be a week of crazy warmth, it will be 3 out of 4 weeks when you total it up.

We might as well go all the way then, but March of 1945 will still be hard to beat no matter how you slice it, but we'll see. If we see 3+ days of 80F+ readings then I think we will definitely be in the running for the warmest March ever but the warm can easily be tempered next week (those backdoor airmasses can be sneaky this time of year but models are trending warmer) so we'll have to see what happens.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

True. More like 24 months if we look at how warm 2010 and 2011 have been in terms of consecutive above normal months. Minus January, 2011 was a torch.

JB put up maps showing the last 3 yrs and it's a blowtorch for the NE and Midwest. He also had the maps for 90, 91, & 92 which showed a similar result...the difference is the blocking in 10 and 11 made the difference.

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

It's still incredible to think that there's even the potential to reach 80 degrees for a rather large part of I-95 during March for more than one day as a part of a large region-wide torch... even having highs near 55-60 degrees on Thu/Fri is considered a "cool" down; in comparison, the torch of March 2010 was definitely not as warm and long lasting as this one. The models still haven't nailed down the potential weekend cutoff (which the 18z GFS doesn't have) and the storms out west, but at this rate it's becoming less of a long range potential and more of a realistic possibility that someone in the area could reach 80 degrees at least once next week.

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted

I think that March will average 11.3 ddegrees above normal.

I'd bet against that. Note the table below of NYC area stations and distribution of March monthly departures (based on 1981-2010 normals). The probability of a 10+ departure in March is well under 1% (see PROB10+ column). Even 8+ is pretty unlikely. Eventually there will be just enough "cool" days to knock the monthly departure back a bit. If the first 24 days of the month average +8 which would be pretty ridiculous, and then the final week averaged a mere +5, the month ends well short of a +8 with a +7.3 departure.

ID    ST STATION                 YRS  MAX   MEAN  STDEV PROB10+ PROB8+
----- -- ----------------------- --- ----- -----  ----- ------- ------
DANC3 CT DANBURY                  67  +7.0  -1.3   3.35  0.04%  0.27%
STFC3 CT STAMFORD 5 N             51  +4.6  -0.9   3.00  0.01%  0.15%
ESXN4 NJ ESSEX FELLS SVC BLDG     59  +6.9  -0.8   3.11  0.03%  0.23%
LTFN4 NJ LITTLE FALLS             89  +9.0  -0.3   3.48  0.15%  0.84%
EWR   NJ NEWARK INTL AP           77  +8.5  -0.4   3.41  0.12%  0.71%
DBFN6 NY DOBBS FERRY ARDSLEY      65  +7.2   0.0   3.01  0.05%  0.40%
MINN6 NY MINEOLA                  74  +6.4  -1.5   3.44  0.04%  0.29%
JFK   NY NEW YORK JFK INTL AP     56  +6.1  -0.6   2.87  0.01%  0.14%
LGA   NY NEW YORK LA GUARDIA AP   72  +7.6  -0.5   3.03  0.03%  0.27%
BKLN6 NY NY AVE V BROOKLYN        54  +4.6  -0.6   2.57  0.00%  0.04%
NYC   NY NY CITY CNTRL PARK      137  +8.7  -1.9   4.05  0.16%  0.72%
SFFN6 NY SUFFERN                  36  +4.4  -1.7   3.17  0.01%  0.11%
WGHN6 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK      34  +7.2  -0.1   3.06  0.05%  0.42%
WPTN6 NY WEST POINT              112  +9.0  -0.6   3.86  0.30%  1.28%
HPN   NY WESTCHESTER CO AP        59  +6.8  +0.4   2.93  0.05%  0.46%
YHTN6 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1 W     46  +6.7   0.0   3.10  0.06%  0.49%

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

0z NAM shows 68 degrees near NYC tomorrow, continuing the trend towards more warmth tomorrow with each run today. The 12z MOS also suggest another 70 degree day tomorrow near NE NJ. With the WNW/NW winds it's possible that parts of the area could reach 70 degrees again tomorrow.

post-1753-0-18008900-1331693475.gif

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

I'd bet against that. Note the table below of NYC area stations and distribution of March monthly departures (based on 1981-2010 normals). The probability of a 10+ departure in March is well under 1% (see PROB10+ column). Even 8+ is pretty unlikely. Eventually there will be just enough "cool" days to knock the monthly departure back a bit. If the first 24 days of the month average +8 which would be pretty ridiculous, and then the final week averaged a mere +5, the month ends well short of a +8 with a +7.3 departure.

ID	ST STATION				 YRS  MAX   MEAN  STDEV PROB10+ PROB8+
----- -- ----------------------- --- ----- -----  ----- ------- ------
DANC3 CT DANBURY				  67  +7.0  -1.3   3.35  0.04%  0.27%
STFC3 CT STAMFORD 5 N			 51  +4.6  -0.9   3.00  0.01%  0.15%
ESXN4 NJ ESSEX FELLS SVC BLDG	 59  +6.9  -0.8   3.11  0.03%  0.23%
LTFN4 NJ LITTLE FALLS			 89  +9.0  -0.3   3.48  0.15%  0.84%
EWR   NJ NEWARK INTL AP		   77  +8.5  -0.4   3.41  0.12%  0.71%
DBFN6 NY DOBBS FERRY ARDSLEY	  65  +7.2   0.0   3.01  0.05%  0.40%
MINN6 NY MINEOLA				  74  +6.4  -1.5   3.44  0.04%  0.29%
JFK   NY NEW YORK JFK INTL AP	 56  +6.1  -0.6   2.87  0.01%  0.14%
LGA   NY NEW YORK LA GUARDIA AP   72  +7.6  -0.5   3.03  0.03%  0.27%
BKLN6 NY NY AVE V BROOKLYN		54  +4.6  -0.6   2.57  0.00%  0.04%
NYC   NY NY CITY CNTRL PARK	  137  +8.7  -1.9   4.05  0.16%  0.72%
SFFN6 NY SUFFERN				  36  +4.4  -1.7   3.17  0.01%  0.11%
WGHN6 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	  34  +7.2  -0.1   3.06  0.05%  0.42%
WPTN6 NY WEST POINT			  112  +9.0  -0.6   3.86  0.30%  1.28%
HPN   NY WESTCHESTER CO AP		59  +6.8  +0.4   2.93  0.05%  0.46%
YHTN6 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1 W	 46  +6.7   0.0   3.10  0.06%  0.49%

Agree. Right now my guess would be between +5.5 and +6.5 due to cooling the last week of March. I could see +8 by the end of next week though.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

0z NAM shows 68 degrees near NYC tomorrow, continuing the trend towards more warmth tomorrow with each run today. The 12z MOS also suggest another 70 degree day tomorrow near NE NJ. With the WNW/NW winds it's possible that parts of the area could reach 70 degrees again tomorrow.

post-1753-0-18008900-1331693475.gif

I bet we stay in the 60s on Friday, upper 50s at very worst. Still around +10 (and will be higher for the daily departure as the min will likely stay in the 50s). We get worse from BDCFs in MAY.

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