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March 31st - Potential Wintry Precip (formerly the March Torch Thread)

tornadojay

By tornadojay,
in New York City Metro

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

Saturday should be chilly, probably with rain at times, and highs only around 50. However, beyond that, the BIG torch comes the first half of next week. I still think there are a few days that could get into the mid and (maybe even perhaps) a few upper 80s.

I don't think it'll get that high, maybe we'll hit 80F if were lucky.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

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Looking at the Euro... It looks like by approximately 18Z on Thursday is when the wind trajectory off the water impacts the entire tr-state area.. it slowly veers to the north, then northeast, then east, and finally southeast. There is definitely a low level reflection of a surface low, looking at the streamlines.. it moves just off the jersey coast and then northeast. The euro definitely has the worst of it peaking on Friday.. to be honest, on St Pattys day, it really isn't all that bad per Euro. Winds shift offshore again and it looks like it has 2 M temps well into the 60's for a good chunk of the tri-state. It tries to push some drier air down from the north very late on Saturday.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
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Looking at the Euro... It looks like by approximately 18Z on Thursday is when the wind trajectory off the water impacts the entire tr-state area.. it slowly veers to the north, then northeast, then east, and finally southeast. There is definitely a low level reflection of a surface low, looking at the streamlines.. it moves just off the jersey coast and then northeast. The euro definitely has the worst of it peaking on Friday.. to be honest, on St Pattys day, it really isn't all that bad per Euro. Winds shift offshore again and it looks like it has 2 M temps well into the 60's for a good chunk of the tri-state. It tries to push some drier air down from the north very late on Saturday.

Works for me. Water temps as they are we'd still hang well into the 50s (if not lower 60s) with wind off the water, at least the city and points W.

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bluewave

bluewave

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Going long the warmth has been a winning hand around here.

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET TODAY AT LAGUARDIA NY WHEN THE

TEMPERATURE REACH 65 DEGREES AT 1:04 PM. THIS BREAK THE OLD RECORD

HIGH OF 63 DEGREES SET IN 1973.

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bluewave

bluewave

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April isn't quite a lock for sustained warm weather.. we can still get killed by cut-off/ BDCF type patterns where we get persistent wind flow off the water. I'm usually not confident in sustained warmth until May comes around, but this winter has been a different animal, so all bets are off.

Yeah, it's pretty tough with spring climo to avoid the BDCF patterns between the warm ups.

Even during 2010 the warmest spring on record, we still had much above days sprinkled with

cooler ones.

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bluewave

bluewave

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and it's not like it's been just a bit above average.. we've been destroying the average by a large amount.

Looking at my weather station stats... last time I was below average for a month was Jan, 2011 and only by 0.2.

It's remarkable what an over the top kind of joke that it has been. It's one new type of warmth record after another.

Warmest season, all time daily record high for Newark, warmest month..etc.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

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Except that we had 3" of snow the week before and it also snowed again in April of that year. I love the warmth and taste of spring but when you get weeks and weeks of well above normal weather something just seems off.

how can you not like this stuff

looking like a March 1990 redux, I remember that year well, my sophomore year at Rutgers, incredible warmth, people laying out outside the dorms, huge outside frat parties and even trips to Seaside the one day temps approached 90!

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

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The 18z DGEX once again changed the persistently chilly conditions to an 80+ degree day next Tuesday; it's still easily subject to change though just as the rest of the models are for this time frame, but as long as another cutoff doesn't move through, the idea of more warmth next week is looking likely. I don't think any strong warmth (as in 75+ degrees) should be sustained, but hopefully waiting nearly a full week for the cutoffs/BCDFs/rain/anything else there is to move out will eventually pave way to at least a very warm day or two, if not more... between Thursday and Sunday/Monday, all of that stuff should keep temperatures stuck probably in the 55-65 degree range for most, locally higher/lower, but once that gets out of the way, unless some other cutoff low pops up on the models, 850mb temps are quite warm, there's already a large ridge in place, and if it falls in the right position even for just 1-2 days NYC could easily reach the 75-85 degree range.

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