Snow_Miser Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Will on the NE thread: Euro ensembles have a very robust signal for the Apr 2 system considering its 8 days out. Not sure how temperatures look on the ENS, because on Raleigh WX the 192 hour ENS print out did not print out correctly for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Models have NYC into the 20's. They'll wait for one or 2 model cycles and probably issue one for NYC also. I would be surprised if they did. An SPS maybe, but I can't see issuing a freeze warning outside of the normal growing season (which is what drives the issuance of frost/freeze warnings). For NYC, the warmest part of OKX's CWA, the average last freeze date is around April 1st, and last frost around April 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I would be surprised if they did. An SPS maybe, but I can't see issuing a freeze warning outside of the normal growing season (which is what drives the issuance of frost/freeze warnings). For NYC, the warmest part of OKX's CWA, the average last freeze date is around April 1st, and last frost around April 10th. This is hardly an average growing season year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 I would be surprised if they did. An SPS maybe, but I can't see issuing a freeze warning outside of the normal growing season (which is what drives the issuance of frost/freeze warnings). For NYC, the warmest part of OKX's CWA, the average last freeze date is around April 1st, and last frost around April 10th. Can't focus on climo all the time. Nature thinks we're at April 20th right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 This is hardly an average growing season year. Yes, but "average growing season" is what drives when such warnings are issued. Most of us made it through the fall without a frost or freeze warning because when the first one occurred we were outside the normal growing season. I'd imagine the same logic applies going the other way, and most of the OKX CWA is still weeks away from the start of the normal growing season, so I could see why they wouldn't issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Will on the NE thread: Not sure how temperatures look on the ENS, because on Raleigh WX the 192 hour ENS print out did not print out correctly for some reason. Like the euro, 50's for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Yes, but "average growing season" is what drives when such warnings are issued. Most of us made it through the fall without a frost or freeze warning because when the first one occurred we were outside the normal growing season. I'd imagine the same logic applies going the other way, and most of the OKX CWA is still weeks away from the start of the normal growing season, so I could see why they wouldn't issue. I'd think they'd issue one at least for CT, where most places are fully leafed out. I'm in Monmouth County, and the growing season seems to be much farther along to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Like the euro, 50's for the coast. To be fair, the ECMWF did not show 50s along the coast during most of the storm. At hour 192, temperatures are in the mid 30s for C NJ N and W with heavy precipitation still in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I'd think they'd issue one at least for CT, where most places are fully leafed out. I'm in Monmouth County, and the growing season seems to be much farther along to my north. Yes trials is going to have major issues as he has grown tomatoes already in his garden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I'd think they'd issue one at least for CT, where most places are fully leafed out. I'm in Monmouth County, and the growing season seems to be much farther along to my north. CT is not fully leafed out. Not even close. No trees are leafed out around here, for example. Buds and flowers sure, but no leaves. Perhaps in the valley between BDL and HFD there are areas where some of the early species have popped, but that is not most of CT, and that's BOX's area anyway. BDR has an average last freeze date in mid-April and DXR's last freeze on average is May 1st with last frost in mid-May, so we are several weeks from the normal growing season. The frost/freeze warnings aren't really for the trees anyway, they're for people planting things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 To be fair, the ECMWF did not show 50s along the coast during most of the storm. At hour 192, temperatures are in the mid 30s for C NJ N and W with heavy precipitation still in the area. Thats cold enough for wet snow especially if it is falling after dark - these types of storms are difficult to predict this time of year in advance - this is going to change at least several times and we will need good timing and some luck to see any type of frozen precip in NYC metro especially closer to the coast......BTW we have the 30th anniversary of the 4/6/82 event approaching anyone have maps from that one .???... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 CT is not fully leafed out. Not even close. No trees are leafed out around here, for example. Buds and flowers sure, but no leaves. Perhaps in the valley between BDL and HFD there are areas where some of the early species have popped, but that is not most of CT, and that's BOX's area anyway. BDR has an average last freeze date in mid-April and DXR's last freeze on average is May 1st with last frost in mid-May, so we are several weeks from the normal growing season. The frost/freeze warnings aren't really for the trees anyway, they're for people planting things. I agree. My comment was meant to be sarcastic (those who saw the leaf out discussion from the other thread get it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Yes, but "average growing season" is what drives when such warnings are issued. Most of us made it through the fall without a frost or freeze warning because when the first one occurred we were outside the normal growing season. I'd imagine the same logic applies going the other way, and most of the OKX CWA is still weeks away from the start of the normal growing season, so I could see why they wouldn't issue. no one is going to listen to a redsox fans. I have leaves, tulips, all sorts of late spring vegetation out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 A snowstorm would be a fitting end to this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 A snowstorm would be a fitting end to this winter. Too bad it won't happen down here though. But up in New England it is a much differnt story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 CT is not fully leafed out. Not even close. No trees are leafed out around here, for example. Buds and flowers sure, but no leaves. Perhaps in the valley between BDL and HFD there are areas where some of the early species have popped, but that is not most of CT, and that's BOX's area anyway. BDR has an average last freeze date in mid-April and DXR's last freeze on average is May 1st with last frost in mid-May, so we are several weeks from the normal growing season. The frost/freeze warnings aren't really for the trees anyway, they're for people planting things. Frost and freeze warnings get issued for flowers, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Too bad it won't happen down here though. But up in New England it is a much differnt story. Why wouldn't it? It has before. Sounds a lot like peoples initial thoughts in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Why wouldn't it? It has before. Sounds a lot like peoples initial thoughts in October. Climo says it's actually much more likely in early April than late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Why wouldn't it? It has before. Sounds a lot like peoples initial thoughts in October. As of now, I just don't see anything big occurring from this in the NYC area. But that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Climo says it's actually much more likely in early April than late October. Very true. I never really remembered a snowstorm in October before last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Yes trials is going to have major issues as he has grown tomatoes already in his garden Who in their right mind puts tomatoes in this early?? That boggles my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 BTW we have the 30th anniversary of the 4/6/82 event approaching anyone have maps from that one .???... No maps, but some photos (including one satellite) per kind permission of NorthShoreWx... http://www.northshor...om/19820406.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Very true. I never really remembered a snowstorm in October before last year. Because there really hasn't been one, plenty in April though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Who in their right mind puts tomatoes in this early?? That boggles my mind. It's a joke. He is the Gardner not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Yes trials is going to have major issues as he has grown tomatoes already in his garden Hop on your lawn mower and come see for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 I am going to have to hibernate until the cold passes.. wind chills in the teens is just not fair. I hate cold weather!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Already in the mid 50s here with brilliant sunshine. This will be the first test of how strong/cold a canadian air mass can remain after passing over a couple million sq miles of snowless scorched earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 So much for the robust signal on day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 So much for the robust signal on day 8 Its gone on the euro ensembles also. But, the ensembles are holding on to the normal to below normal temp signal for the extended range with a -nao continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Already in the mid 50s here with brilliant sunshine. This will be the first test of how strong/cold a canadian air mass can remain after passing over a couple million sq miles of snowless scorched earth. exactly-bet we bust warm yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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