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Weekend Storm Discussion Part II, 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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Are you guys sure? It just looks slower. And the H5 map compared to 18z/12z looks a bit more amplified IMO.

Through 33 it looks like a trainwreck. But I could be wrong. Looks strung out and junky. More than just convection ruining it here. The southern anomaly is weak and junky too. It doesn't have enough depth to incite stronger cyclogenesis to set in motion feedback cyclogenesis.

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It is just slower, but it still looks bad.

It continues to slow down the lead shortie to better match what the Euro had. GFS did the same thing at 18z. Then there's nothing to drive the moisture north before the entire thing starts to get booted east.

The NCEP models were really off on the timing of s/w's for days. Not sure why, but they literally couldn't forecast s/w position 12-18 hours out on any run going back 3 days.

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It continues to slow down the lead shortie to better match what the Euro had. GFS did the same thing at 18z. Then there's nothing to drive the moisture north before the entire thing starts to get booted east.

The NCEP models were really off on the timing of s/w's for days. Not sure why, but they literally couldn't forecast s/w position 12-18 hours out on any run going back 3 days.

Remember when people were like what if tha NAM is right. That was laughably ridiculous, no?

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It's slower but it's the NAM and you all should feel dummer for even caring what it shows.

In this case I would say no. NAM verbatim means little, but this certainly was a potential solution all along. Weak southern anomaly can be a problem since it is driving nearly all cyclogenesis here, and early feedback is needed for a decent event farther N. I think we saw it here.

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I'm glad you came down to our forum with this info. You think the Euro is an ok model?

Lol. Like I said, people have gotten giddy over the NCEP model suites both here and all over the eastern US, and NCEP basically got their azzes handed to them on s/w handling. This was an initial screwjob for NE, but as someone who saw the handling of the s/w on the models, I figured I should give insight down here, seeing as thats how its trending.

It sucks, and people don't wanna hear it, but its the truth that there were signs of this occurring. This winter's been below normal everywhere and its tough to stay level headed when you've been snow starved.

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Remember when people were like what if tha NAM is right. That was laughably ridiculous, no?

Human nature, it's been so bad for all of us this winter....I was really pulling for all of you guys.

The NAM and GFS have really been out of it with the handling of s/w's. I'm not sure how or why but they've been consistently unable to handle the speed of the various s/w's even with incredibly short leads of 12 or 18 hours. Worse they don't seem to "catch up" but are continually behind the Euro by about a run.

Anyway, NAM IMO is now getting nearer the correct solution. I hope some of you get snow.

EDIT: GFS will do the same. It was going that way with the s/w's at 18z.

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It continues to slow down the lead shortie to better match what the Euro had. GFS did the same thing at 18z. Then there's nothing to drive the moisture north before the entire thing starts to get booted east.

The NCEP models were really off on the timing of s/w's for days. Not sure why, but they literally couldn't forecast s/w position 12-18 hours out on any run going back 3 days.

but the Euro showed decent snow for DCA/BWI before any of the other models did

at this rate, the precip will be so light in VA/WVA that they will have temp problems

at least it's seemingly over tonight instead of tomorrow

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In this case I would say no. NAM verbatim means little, but this certainly was a potential solution all along. Weak southern anomaly can be a problem since it is driving nearly all cyclogenesis here, and early feedback is needed for a decent event farther N. I think we saw it here.

I wasn't really referring to you

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