mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I still think there will be a gradual shift north and west even if small...this doesn't mean a bad result necessarily for anyone, but you still have to favor JYO - MRB - HGR - Marcus's House for the best snows....Plus there is still a lot of time I still like my 2-4" call for my backyard....We are going to have to deal with some rain and some non-accumulating stuff but once it gets cranking, 33 and +SN should overcome that....I expect we will even get street accumulation at least on side roads in DC and maybe main roads depending on timing...I like 3" for my backyard...If we end up with a closer track, I still think we can do ok with deform...we just deal with more rain as a percentage than we want There is still a lot of time for the track to shift but I think an OTS miss is pretty unlikely and I would lean toward PHL-NYC-BOS getting in on this...The southern stream is amped enough on its own.... A couple additional things to consider: This could change but as of now the heaviest snow falls during day time...this will cut down on accumulation since the BL will cool less quickly, and sun angle will be an enemy This air mass is really tough...As of now MOS has us in the low to mid 50s on Saturday afternoon and low to mid 40s when precip arrives Saturday night...As a point of reference on January 25, 2011 we were about 5-7 degrees colder at midnight and same with 2/22/87....We would like to see temps trend toward the mid to upper 40s Saturday afternoon..and upper 30s by midnight....that will give us more of a head start...I expect they will trend down a little This is going to be more like a March storm than a February one...Even Feb 87 had a slightly better air mass....So imagine this storm happening around March 15-20th with somewhat better sun angle and I think you get a better idea of the result...It probably means DCA is capped in the 2-4" range, but accumulations could potentially vary quite a bit over short distances....Stay fleixible Great post, Matt - I hope everyone reads it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 995 Low off of HSE at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 FYI, 12z GFS is a massive hit for the elevated portions of VA...Staunton - Harrisonburg, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS should be good. Adam says Deform sets up over DC at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS essentially looks like last night's euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Probably pointing out details too fine at this stage but storm is a bit slower and 850's further south than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is really shaping up to be a pretty classic miller a. As always north and west of the cities should see less mixing/rain. Looks good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Big hit for VA again. Even down to RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GFS should be good. Adam says Deform sets up over DC at 84 It does. Big hit for the foothills to the west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NIce run. Track is just fine. Heaviest precip sets up pretty much where we want it. Somebody in WV is prob getting a foot +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Probably pointing out details too fine at this stage but storm is a bit slower and 850's further south than 6z. Getting ++SN at 2pm - 5pm has its advantages and disadvantages, but not sure you want the core of the storm falling at the absolute worst sun angle and temp in a late FEB marginal air mass....at the same time, anything less than crushing deform in that window would have a tough time sticking well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'd love to slow this thing down by 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Basically from 18z to 22-23z or so..it's snowing pretty darn hard in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'd love to slow this thing down by 6 hours True, but we can get some good accums from about 22z till the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The clown maps are going to be even worse than normal with the borderline nature of this event, so ignore them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 True, but we can get some good accums from about 22z till the end we are done by 6pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Clown Maps show quite a bit even if bad - the 4-8" call N&W of suburbs that people mentioned looks possible. I suspect the 3-6" to be more common, but not too bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 we are done by 6pm... Nevermind..doing comparison/flip with 6z and 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The clown maps are going to be even worse than normal with the borderline nature of this event, so ignore them. Are those things ever worth looking at for analysis purposes or just fun to look at? I never take them seriously. I've lived here along time as many others. It's not terribly difficult to look at the surface, 850, and 500 panels and pretty much know what the model would imply. The most recent GFS is telling me that if I didn't have to battle any temp issues, 4-8 or 6-10 would be reasonable. Gotta cut that in half here. 3-5 just n&w of the cities? Seems ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The clown maps are going to be even worse than normal with the borderline nature of this event, so ignore them. I'm not sure why people post them other than fun?....They are unreliable, the algorithms are goofy and nobody I know has ever relied on them to make a forecast or used them at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Are those things ever worth looking at for analysis purposes or just fun to look at? I never take them seriously. I've lived here along time as many others. It's not terribly difficult to look at the surface, 850, and 500 panels and pretty much know what the model would imply. The most recent GFS is telling me that if I didn't have to battle any temp issues, 4-8 or 6-10 would be reasonable. Gotta cut that in half here. 3-5 just n&w of the cities? Seems ok. I'm not sure why people post them other than fun?....They are unreliable, the algorithms are goofy and nobody I know has ever relied on them to make a forecast or used them at all yes....they are completely useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I could find a few things I'd love to be different, but after this winter, I'd take the GFS verbatim and call it a season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Basically from 18z to 22-23z or so..it's snowing pretty darn hard in the city. If you take the GFS at face value, 18z seems like the changeover time, and DCA/BWI get about 0.3" after that. 2-3" snow considering the surface. If we go over instead by 15z or so, then there is 0.5" frozen and we end up with a nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looks good for a lot of you folks. best of luck. folks out toward i-81 seem like they are in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If you take the GFS at face value, 18z seems like the changeover time, and DCA/BWI get about 0.3" after that. 2-3" snow considering the surface. If we go over instead by 15z or so, then there is 0.5" frozen and we end up with a nice little event. 12 hr total qpf beginning 18Z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F16%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p12&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=090&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Man. The shenendaoh valley gets hit hard on this run. But south of me and trixie for the heaviest stuff. Now we just wait for the inevitable north shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 If you take the GFS at face value, 18z seems like the changeover time, and DCA/BWI get about 0.3" after that. 2-3" snow considering the surface. If we go over instead by 15z or so, then there is 0.5" frozen and we end up with a nice little event. I could see it snowing a bit earlier than that, but it might be a 34F snow..or something like that. Once it flips, it should come down good..but surface temps will may be a slight issue at first, anyways. With any elevation...even 300'..it will make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 12z GGEM is basically a whiff north of RIC 12z SUN has 1006 L basically at FL/AL/MS borders all meet 00z MON has 1005 L offshore of NC/SC border by 50 miles or so 12z MON 996 L way offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Gotta stay optimistic about temps here. Subtle shifts can really make us smile (or cry). Pretty much a lock we get some rain at the beginning. Can't really get around that. Once we hit nowcasting time we'll have a much better idea of how much we're going to lose before the changeover. GFS showing 40's at onset. What if we are say.....38 or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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