tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z Canadian @ 132HR. 1030mb HP over Iowa. 997mb off NC coast. First time I've seem a 1030mb HP modeled during this timeframe. http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_132.jpg Yep, that looks good. I'd take my chances with that one here in the Triad. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 why even bother with him? You non professionals will never learn the difference between wishcasting by grasping onto any straws that could give a solution you might like and meteorology. You may want to check what is going on with the NAO going positive into this weekend. That would be a case for the storm finding a path northward, the cold not locking in and unfortunately skunking most of NC for snow chances with snow even being just probable in the mountains. Yes, I'd like a good statewide snowstorm also to close off this awful winter, but wishcasting does not cut it for professionals who have an expected level of accountability. As of now, I'd give more weighting to the ECMWF at this stage of the pattern but 120 hours out, it is silly for some to make personal attacks on our board. Individuals like YOU are the reason that most pros will not participate and contribute to our fine board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 ukmet is very weak and ots. I'm not even sure it has a storm.... The 500mb wave gets completely squashed. Just what we want. This gives good balance to the runner track. Euro will be exciting. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z Canadian is a pretty big snow hit for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z GFS ensembles average actually takes a good track for the piedmont areas with the low center 100 miles south of panama city at 120 and 100 or so south of Hatteras at 132 but the 850's still look warm in the average but some HP is to the North. We could see a situation where this turns into a mixed CAD event if the Highs keep trending stronger. I think most of us will take it even if its not snow but wintry. Of course we will continue to see changes for at least 2 or 3 days and we know how that goes. They are usually not in our favor but you never know. Maybe this is the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Just saw that, thought I was missing something, but you are right, UKMET pretty much looses any gulf low and no real surface reflection off the SE coast, at least per the crappy meteociel maps. Canadian is very close if not a NE NC - SE VA thump between 126 & 138. Sent from my iPhone 4S Very close with a ton of QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You non professionals will never learn the difference between wishcasting by grasping onto any straws that could give a solution you might like and meteorology. You may want to check what is going on with the NAO going positive into this weekend. That would be a case for the storm finding a path northward and unfortunately skunking most of NC for snow chances with snow even being just probable in the mountains. Per Allan Huffmans research on NC sn storm climo, neg nao signal is stronger for Hickory type events, compared to RDU, where the nao signal is actually pretty diffuse. Granted, there are a myriad of other variables that must line up correctly, but a nao going pos is a pretty weak arguement for a north shift. We are 5 days out, leave the wishasting/non professional crap at the door, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I stated this a couple pages ago and I will again...the s/w and Gulf Low Cyclogenesis looks very good. We just need that 50/50 to re-appear. That allows the surface high to the north to do its thing...we get all of that and I think the Southern Apps will have a "big ticket item" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Waiting on the euro right now but I posted this in the other thread which is dead of course so I'll post it here where there are actually people lol Now with the exception of the far north, the atlanta to athens areas are possibly going to have to experience the classical NC/western NC/north ga mountain snow while we are stuck in the 30s/40s and rain. What a waste to see a gulf low go to waste for us. Although I know it's still 5 days out, there is pretty damn good agreement among the models so confidence is higher than average with respect to the general details. Cross your fingers for a more southern track or a faster HP building into the NE...but a word to the wise..don't get your hopes up if in the atlanta/athens/85 corridor. There just isn't much cold air around and we know the tendency for these things to shift north (so much so that only the mountains of nc get snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I love how people like to right off certain weather forecast five days in advance. The 12z Canadian and GFS models show a system moving through the southeast. The 0z Euro also showed this system, so there is little question that there will be a system developing in the gulf and moving up the east coast. Now, we have to look at the different factors that are in this forecast, the cold air. The high pressure on the CMC is 1024 mb and GFS is 1028 mb. The GFS high is also farther east than the Canadian. The Canadian is colder than the GFS, WHY? The Canadian is showing the northern and southern stream meeting together, which in turn helps to bring cold air down from Canada. Its obvious on the 500 mb voriticty height map on the PSU EWall. If the phase happens right, North Carolina has a great chance for a nice winter storm. If the phase does not happen right, then we can forget it. I believe someone will pick up a nice snow out of this; however, to say where is unwise. Its very possible the system phases earlier and cuts up the Apps. Then Tennessee and the Ohio Valley could be in the way of a large winter storm. Lets try to get the track of the storm down pat first, then we will work on the phasing and the cold air. For the coastal plain and eastern piedmont, its going to be hard to get snow out of this. Sorry, its the way it is. For the mountains, foothills, and piedmont of NC, SC, GA, and VA, I would watch this system. In TN, do not give up on it yet. There is very high uncertainty with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Per Allan Huffmans research on NC sn storm climo, neg nao signal is stronger for Hickory type events, compared to RDU, where the nao signal is actually pretty diffuse. Granted, there are a myriad of other variables that must line up correctly, but a nao going pos is a pretty weak arguement for a north shift. We are 5 days out, leave the wishasting/non professional crap at the door, thanks. I sure as heck ain't getting involved in all that stuff, but I do wonder if the NAO going positive is the reason the models are losing the strength of the 50/50 low. That seems to be key in the models losing our cold. Isn't that storm the lower height anomoly that establishes a -NAO (with positive height anomolies over greenland)? I'm just thinking the +NAO is what's messing up the NC piedmont's cold supply. Maybe I just don't understand it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I sure as heck ain't getting involved in all that stuff, but I do wonder if the NAO going positive is the reason the models are losing the strength of the 50/50 low. That seems to be key in the models losing our cold. Isn't that storm the lower height anomoly that establishes a -NAO (with positive height anomolies over greenland)? I'm just thinking the +NAO is what's messing up the NC piedmont's cold supply. Maybe I just don't understand it correctly. Correct me if I'm wrong Mets, but doesn't the 50/50 help to reinforce the - NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z euro looks very similar so far to the 0z run through 96 hours..maybe a touch slower. edit: little weaker at 102...ever so slightly warmer over nc. Low is a lot more elongated at 108 vs 0z run and further south. However, Looks like more warm air advection ahead of the system however. Precip just reaching the nc/sc border with 850mb temps of 4c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro to 108 hours- slower, weaker and farther south with the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Too warm in all of NC @114 rain moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Agreed. Wish the HP was over NY State and building though. Yep, that looks good. I'd take my chances with that one here in the Triad. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 @120 cold air is pushing down. There is a good bit of moisture south around SAV (a low?). We'll have to see where it goes. 0c line runs in the far SW part of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I would be willing to give the cold rain guarantee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Doesn't look bad @126 low is just off of Myrtle Beach 850 line down int CAE...light moisture into southern half of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Too warm in all of NC @114 rain moving in. Yep low is further south/slower and temps are warmer. In fact, precip doesn't even fall over most of nc. Low is not cranked up like it was on the 12z run and hitting the mid atlantic. Low slides off the coast at 132, no snow or even rain north of sc/nc border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 @132 low is pulling away just leaving very light moisture in NC...upstate SC might win on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yep low is further south/slower and temps are warmer. In fact, precip doesn't even fall over most of nc. Low is not cranked up like it was on the 12z run and hitting the mid atlantic. It does get better, but it's a little late....nothing really for GA outside of maybe some flurries in the NE sections. Could be a dusting for MBY...again just verbatim based on sfc maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Also appears coastal sections might eek out an inch or two on this run. Not bad considering how it looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 @132 low is pulling away just leaving very light moisture in NC...upstate SC might win on this one. Doubtful, surface temps look way too warm..near 40/low 40s with only a few upper 30s. By the time any cold air reaches anyone, the precip is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yep low is further south/slower and temps are warmer. In fact, precip doesn't even fall over most of nc. Low is not cranked up like it was on the 12z run and hitting the mid atlantic. Low slides off the coast at 132, no snow or even rain north of sc/nc border. Sounds like it missed the phase? Or phasing too late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This system will not produce snow from cold air in place, it will be with the dynamic cooling with the vort max coming in from the west. Therefore if snow occurs, it will begin as rain except perhaps in the highest mountains. It looks pretty obvious that last night's Op Euro was an outlier- the surface low will probably take a more southerly track, we just need to hope the phasing occurs just barely west of here and the strength at 500mb is stronger more in line with the CMC. I agree with Lookout that GA is not looking very good for snow especially ATL south, there is a better chance in NC. However, we still have a ways to go, not giving up all hope yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Man, I fell hook line and sinker for this threat. Too bad. A 5 day EURO fantasy storm....who knew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Man, I fell hook line and sinker for this threat. Too bad. A 5 day EURO fantasy storm....who knew? I think we all were excited but in back of minds knew it might not happen. Never looks good when we have to thread the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 There must be a lot of cliff-diving in the Mid-ATL and NE threads right now Seriously we cannot look at details yet- with phrasing streams it is a delicate balance and the models will continue to flop around for a while longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This system will not produce snow from cold air in place, it will be with the dynamic cooling with the vort max coming in from the west. Therefore if snow occurs, it will begin as rain except perhaps in the highest mountains. It looks pretty obvious that last night's Op Euro was an outlier- the surface low will probably take a more southerly track, we just need to hope the phasing occurs just barely west of here and the strength at 500mb is stronger more in line with the CMC. I agree with Lookout that GA is not looking very good for snow especially ATL south, there is a better chance in NC. However, we still have a ways to go, not giving up all hope yet. I think your right on to the pattern. This storm will not have copious amounts of cold air to work with, it will literally "make its on". This is reminding me of the December 2009 storm. I DON'T BELIEVE THAT THIS STORM WILL BE AS STRONG OR BIG AS THAT STORM; however, it is a good analog for what may happen again. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ The snowfall line could be very similar to that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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