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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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Yeah that's great. The 18z GFS op is a dream come true and exactly what you want.

Yeah...I should be more specific and say that pattern is great for Mauler type Miller Bs...we can get Miller Bs a lot with bowling ball systems with a flatter flow (Jan 12 last year, Dec 9, 2005)...but the manitoba mauler types come from that type of pattern shown.

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Yeah...I should be more specific and say that pattern is great for Mauler type Miller Bs...we can get Miller Bs a lot with bowling ball systems with a flatter flow (Jan 12 last year, Dec 9, 2005)...but the manitoba mauler types come from that type of pattern shown.

Well hopefully it produces. I'd like to get a 6" storm. I think everyone around me has, within about 20 miles..lol. It looks promising down the road..I just hope it lasts more than 10 days.

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Yup. Observed it many times. I always wanted to get hit with windy heavy rain in LA and snow in the mountains and then take a flight the next day east and get hit again by snow. Didn't have the resources then so it was typically out of the question. One thing I did do though is based on the map in the LA Times sometime around 1980 or 1981 I on the spur of the moment took the red eye to BOS, crashed at my friends, and watched the storm become a colossal dud. We did go to the Bruins game though....lol.

did the bruins win????

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EC ensembles did hint at split flow off of SOCAL.

Yeah at the end of the run it showed that is a possibility. The pattern will probably still be northern stream dominated...but a few shortwaves coming in underneath the ridge usually are a good thing anyway.

They can ignite storms into the mean trough when there isn't a potent northern stream shortwave or just enhance anything coming out of the northern stream.

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Yeah...I should be more specific and say that pattern is great for Mauler type Miller Bs...we can get Miller Bs a lot with bowling ball systems with a flatter flow (Jan 12 last year, Dec 9, 2005)...but the manitoba mauler types come from that type of pattern shown.

Was Boxing Day a MM? It was digging almost straight south so it wasn't an Alberta Clipper and probably not a Saschatchewan Screamer.

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Was Boxing Day a MM? It was digging almost straight south so it wasn't an Alberta Clipper and probably not a Saschatchewan Screamer.

No not at all..that was from a southern stream piece of energy that undercut the ridge and phased with a northern stream shortwave.

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Yeah at the end of the run it showed that is a possibility. The pattern will probably still be northern stream dominated...but a few shortwaves coming in underneath the ridge usually are a good thing anyway.

They can ignite storms into the mean trough when there isn't a potent northern stream shortwave or just enhance anything coming out of the northern stream.

EC ensembles did hint at split flow off of SOCAL.

La La land but the 12z GEFS hint at this as well...

f336.gif

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Whether these runs verify or not, such as the 18z and this 00z GFS run ... we are getting back to seeing the type of runs we are more accustomed to around these parts; that's a good start ;) Particularly when balanced against the various teleconnector spreads.

00z GFS is a pure wet dream. Massive +PNA in the extended just keeps the threats coming. Even if it lasts only 10-15 days (evidence out there it's much more prolonged, ie- 3+ weeks), it will be fun times. (hopefully not too frustrating)

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00z GFS is a pure wet dream.  Massive +PNA in the extended just keeps the threats coming.  Even if it lasts only 10-15 days (evidence out there it's much more prolonged, ie- 3+ weeks), it will be fun times. (hopefully not too frustrating)

Heh, yeah I was just thinking how some of the higher totaled winters in history racked up their goods in shorter order...

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Heh, yeah I was just thinking how some of the higher totaled winters in history racked up their goods in shorter order...

I was thinking about this today too lol

The bulk of last season's SF came in a 6-week period last year. Not saying we repeat, but get a sweet period with a couple biggies, some good teleconnections, and some luck...then who knows.

Definitely something to look forward to. At least we're not looking at a pattern of SWFE, hoping to get an inch of snow on the front end before the switch to 55F rain the next day.

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