packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I agree, sadly. When he starts talking like that...it may just be time to cut our loses and move along. (sigh) (in a month or so) Yeah, if he is pessimistic, we should go ahead an pack it in. Ready for this winter to be over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 My avatar is my deck on Feb 27, 2004. That was a funny storm. i don't know how much you got that night but that was a shocker. My wife came in at 4am from the hospital and said you better get to Winston it is deep. I looked on our deck which is 10 miles north of Winston and we may had 2 inches. Got to winston and she was right. We plowed it on friday I think and by monday you couldn't find a pile. It melted fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 18z GFS breaks down the western ridge at day 12ish but then builds a nice NAO block and then rebuilds the western ridge some. Evidently nobody is buying these model run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well the 18z GFS didn't shed much light on the weekend system (similar to 12z, maybe a tad warmer). dealing with the LR it does show the western ridge at day 10 with some really cold air diving into the east US. A little bit of interest is at day 7-8 with a storm that builds in the gulf but scoots off the east coast only providing rain to the deep SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This winter(or lack thereof) has required patience up to this point and is going to require more. The models have been unreliable all winter past five days. While I am skeptical of winter returning w/ any duration, I certainly will not rule out one, good blockbuster of a storm. I was commenting to someone the other day that this winter reminds a lot of 1993. When forecasters began predicting that storm I was stunned after the warm winter we had - even more stunned that it came to fruition. And while we probably won't get treated to a "Storm of the Century", late winter and spring have often produced during some terrible winters in the upper South. While I think it unlikely that KTRI gets anywhere close to its average, I do think it is in the realm of possibility that someone in the SE gets a memorable storm - even more memorable since winter has been DOA. For the most part, this winter is drawing to a quick conclusion and will be remembered for well above normal temps and a complete lack of snow. While I do not think that cold air will show w/ any duration, a winterstorm cannot be ruled out. It has been easy to see that this winter was going to be warm due to it being a moderat Nina. What will be tough is recognizing a potential winter threat - the NAO should tip us off. So, keep watching and get ready for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I agree, sadly. When he starts talking like that...it may just be time to cut our losses and move along. (sigh) (in a month or so) I was about to say...it is way too early to cliff dive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I was about to say...it is way too early to cliff dive! You know me better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 I felt the 18z looked good. Still showed our GOM storm. 00z runs tonight should be telling because of sampling going on in the Pacific for this weekends storm. 00z Euro is going to be another one to watch. Does it go with 12z or come up with again a totally different solution in the LR. Either way it appears we won't know anything until about this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I was about to say...it is way too early to cliff dive! Agree.....I just can't cliff-dive when there's still Feb and Mar to go. So, I am still holding on.....at least for now....... I don't even look at the off-hour runs anymore because they change so much with every run. Even if the GFS showed 2 feet of snow at 120 hours I would throw it out. Let's wait and see what the Pacific recon flight data tells us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Welcome to the forum! I look forward to hearing your insights! Where are you located? I'm going to guess he lives right near the airport in the Brier Creek area. Put two and two together, but only because he has KRDU in his profile obs. I live 5 minutes from that area and around 10 minutes from the airport....If so he has me beat as closest forum member to RDU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Here is a snippet from NWS-GSP. They still have a degree of uncertainty regarding this Sunday-Tuesday: AT THE SFC...THE COLD AIR WEDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS THRU EARLY SAT WITH MOIST SELY LOW LVL FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING SAT AFTERNOON. A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48HRS. AFTER THIS...THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY WITH THE GFS MOVING THE LOW OFFSHORE BY LATE SUN AND BRINGING A DRY CANADIAN SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF...HOWEVER MAINTAINS SOME DEGREE OF COLD AIR WEDGING/DAMMING OVER THE FCST AREA FROM EARLY SUN THRU MON. ITS EVOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW APPEARS SPORADIC AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS...SO I DONT HAVE MUCH FAITH IN ITS OVERALL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT BY DAY 7 WITH SOME SORT OF SFC RIDGING PUSHING INTO THE AREA. WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST PAST SUNDAY...I DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR THAT PERIOD. POPS RAMP UP QUICKLY SAT MORNING WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA BY THE AFTERNOON. QPF COULD BE FAIRLY HIGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US. I HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE POPS THRU 12Z MONDAY AND THEN TAPER THEM DOWN TO BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BY TUES AFTERNOON. THE TEMP FCST IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING CONSIDERING WE HAVE A CAD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY ONE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD EARLY MONDAY. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT HIGHS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND LOWS WELL ABOVE CLIMO WITH THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Folks, Fwiw (worth is growing due to incredible consistency), the 18Z Goofy ensemble mean STILL has the Miller A that crosses the FL pen. It has it for 2/10-11. If we could only get a bit more of a plunge of the Arctic air from the northern branch while still allowing the Miller A from the subtropical branch, this could get very interesting. I know...easier said than done. Stay tuned to this BB for further updates as they become available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 you know I'm trying to be optimistic guys and I know we have Feb. March and even April in the NC Mtns. but each week goes by and I think oh well next week we'll have something to track and things will change to winter the rest of the winter. WELL WE"RE running out of TIME. Each week turns into the next week and the next week turns into the next week. What is going on, I thought surely by now the pattern would change at least a little. Where has our normal winter gone to? VERY VERY FRUSTRATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 you know I'm trying to be optimistic guys and I know we have Feb. March and even April in the NC Mtns. but each week goes by and I think oh well next week we'll have something to track and things will change to winter the rest of the winter. WELL WE"RE running out of TIME. Each week turns into the next week and the next week turns into the next week. What is going on, I thought surely by now the pattern would change at least a little. Where has our normal winter gone to? VERY VERY FRUSTRATED. Your not alone. I think all of us are frustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Wow, brutal read, he isn't buying the western ridge/east trough. Since he isn't the only one, if the models don't bring it closer than we can really start to think about canceling winter. I agree, sadly. When he starts talking like that...it may just be time to cut our losses and move along. (sigh) (in a month or so) Yeah, if he is pessimistic, we should go ahead an pack it in. Ready for this winter to be over with. Well I didn't mean to sound like I'm not optimistic later on, just pointing out that its a false early start...again. I do think we'll have a better pattern mid month and probably later in Feb, but we still have to wait a while. The models built up the northwest portion of the west Canada ridge too tall, and way too fast. Instead its getting knocked down initially and rolling toward southern Canada and that causes the trough in Canada that was going to drop into the east, instead to drop more into the extreme Northeast and the Atlantic ocean. Several hundred mile miss there if not a thousand miles. The ensembles did just as badly for the weekend, but eventually I think it will finally get colder. It may happen after the Gulf system around Feb 10 to 12, and that goes up the coast pulling down much colder air. The fast flow and strong Alaskan vortex this season has been hard to make a good western ridge, and the fast flow and lack of blocking in Atlantic is skewing the models, causing pretty big errors around day 7 and beyond. The cold continues to avoid the Southeast. I'm still optimistic that nature evens out later on with a complete flip (western ridge +Greenland blocking ) which would be a good pattern to finally comine cold and storm track. That might come mid month (or begin around the time GFS and ECMWF develop the Gulf system). We will wait and see, since its going to be hard to forecast cold air , until it staring you in the face this season. This winter(or lack thereof) has required patience up to this point and is going to require more. The models have been unreliable all winter past five days. While I am skeptical of winter returning w/ any duration, I certainly will not rule out one, good blockbuster of a storm. I was commenting to someone the other day that this winter reminds a lot of 1993. When forecasters began predicting that storm I was stunned after the warm winter we had - even more stunned that it came to fruition. And while we probably won't get treated to a "Storm of the Century", late winter and spring have often produced during some terrible winters in the upper South. While I think it unlikely that KTRI gets anywhere close to its average, I do think it is in the realm of possibility that someone in the SE gets a memorable storm - even more memorable since winter has been DOA. For the most part, this winter is drawing to a quick conclusion and will be remembered for well above normal temps and a complete lack of snow. While I do not think that cold air will show w/ any duration, a winterstorm cannot be ruled out. It has been easy to see that this winter was going to be warm due to it being a moderat Nina. What will be tough is recognizing a potential winter threat - the NAO should tip us off. So, keep watching and get ready for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Nice write up by SD over on Talkweather. Give it a read if you have time right quick: http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?/topic/57734-why-i-think-the-pattern-will-change/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I guess we need to keep in mind the Ops are all over the place with the pattern change. Really wild swings. That's always been the case with patten change. What pattern change... I see nothing new... nothing X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Nice write up by SD over on Talkweather. Give it a read if you have time right quick: http://www.talkweath...rn-will-change/ Ditto this. Excellent read.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Nice write up by SD over on Talkweather. Give it a read if you have time right quick: http://www.talkweath...rn-will-change/ Yep good stuff. I really hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSD Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Nice write up by SD over on Talkweather. Give it a read if you have time right quick: http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?/topic/57734-why-i-think-the-pattern-will-change/ Ditto this. Excellent read.. Yep good stuff. I really hope he is right. Thanks guys. This is the first mjo pulse of solid magnitude to move into our favorable phases all winter. Given the stratospheric warming pretty much did nothing itself to help out perhaps the forcing from the mjo coupled with a weakened pv will split the Alaskan vortex up sending a piece into the Aleutians and another into SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Thanks guys. This is the first mjo pulse of solid magnitude to move into our favorable phases all winter. Given the stratospheric warming pretty much did nothing itself to help out perhaps the forcing from the mjo coupled with a weakened pv will split the Alaskan vortex up sending a piece into the Aleutians and another into SE Canada. Nice analysis and write up. I agree. It seems just yesterday everyone knew for sure the MJO was screwed and would never without a divine miracle switch to the favorable phases...just goes to show how strange this winter has really been. I know you must like talk weather but feel free to post here, we need more Raleigh posters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well so far the 00z on the surface isn't much to write home about. Not much CAD and looks like a big ULL around Nebraska. We'll see where this run takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Pretty much zero PNA ridge through 120... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Pretty much zero PNA ridge through 120... Doesn't get much better out to 147...though it does look like some changes may be a foot. We will just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 1 big snow storm, one ice event for northern and western parts. Hott Hott spring and Sumer coming and a freeze in the spring just to make ya mad! That my prediction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well @171 things look to be getting a little better. Colder air is dropping down and something is brewing in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Trough at 174 looks just too flat for my liking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Trough at 174 looks just too flat for my liking... Agree, but i'm no expert tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSD Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The 2 closed ridges on the gfs really muck up the flow early on and prevent a ton of cold air delivery as the flow is veered zonal. Once those clear out of the picture and we see more meridional flow the cold will start building southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Why I punish myself by staying up for the GFS is anyone's guess. @189 cold air is retreating and our system in TX is fizzling out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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