usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm not sure whether this was posted or not but LWX has posted advisories for the entire area, even where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hoping you are right, Mark. 1 - 2 inches would get me off of the "0" I am at for the winter. His 2-4 not far from us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW, a peek at the last few hours of the 17z RUC has the 0c 850 line crossing DCA at 09z/10z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I apologize. I got you confused with someone else--I remember who you are now and you are definitely not dumb. We're good. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The 12z 4km WRF-NMM has been pretty spot-on with timing the precip. onset with this event... shows the precip. starting just after 11pm in DC/MoCo and around midnight in Baltimore. Link to the 12z model page: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 all this positive stuff, and then this oh, how some things never change time sensative http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F20%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=700_rh_ht&pdesc=&model=RUC&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 all this positive stuff, and then this oh, how some things never change time sensative http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M What about it? Doesn't look any different from the other stuff I've looked at. There will be a little QPF wasted at the onset of precip. to moisten the column, but it's hardly a dent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 all this positive stuff, and then this oh, how some things never change time sensative http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M ehh not bad, then some UVV's, don't see a huge problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FWIW, a peek at the last few hours of the 17z RUC has the 0c 850 line crossing DCA at 09z/10z 08z for the 18z, but we are looking at RUC thermal profiles here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 hrrrrumph. after all your negativity, you still get an advisory. I didn't thinnk my CWG piece yesterday was negative. except for places east of the city. MY only negative post was I thought the NAM was too wet and that the Euro precip was more likely to be correct than the canadian snow which still looks somewhat overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 "up to 29". That's nothing...I'm in Ballenger where the temp is up to almost 35F. Not sure why people keep saying temps are falling. Mine has gone up all day. My backyard: http://www.wundergro...3&sp=KMDFREDE26 My station had been at 29.3 all day, it has now gone up in just the last hour to 32.9. Going off of your location on the map I am about 2 miles to your S. BTW I use your station for my WxUnderground page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 08z for the 18z, but we are looking at RUC thermal profiles here. and at 850 mb they are almost always too warm. They had us above freezing during the Feb 6th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My station had been at 29.3 all day, it has now gone up in just the last hour to 32.9. Going off of your location on the map I am about 2 miles to your S. BTW I use your station for my WxUnderground page. I'm back down to 30.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 08z for the 18z, but we are looking at RUC thermal profiles here. Oh I know, trust me... I was just taking a peek to see where we were at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I was 32.1 as of 5 mins ago. If it can...it will find a way to only be rain here. A look at real snow via Paradise Ranger Station. Some 7' of snow the past 3-4 days and another 5-7' on the way up there in the coming week. great pic! If you want a good laugh (and knowing they are usseless), check out the snow forecast map by NWS Sterling. The big hole right over FDK just doesn't surprise me. I'm glad I got a Davis this year to measure precipitation. I'm convinced FDK gets less yearly precip than surrounding areas. Sitting at the base of the Catoctins makes us a mini-desert for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What about it? Doesn't look any different from the other stuff I've looked at. There will be a little QPF wasted at the onset of precip. to moisten the column, but it's hardly a dent. the RH hole whips right around into DCA/BWI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 28.4 just north of Westminster, down from a high of 34 earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 great pic! If you want a good laugh (and knowing they are usseless), check out the snow forecast map by NWS Sterling. The big hole right over FDK just doesn't surprise me. I'm glad I got a Davis this year to measure precipitation. I'm convinced FDK gets less yearly precip than surrounding areas. Sitting at the base of the Catoctins makes us a mini-desert for the area. I'd tend to agree. We sat under 30-35dbz for hours and hours during the Oct storm...nothing but very light snow fell (eventually just rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 the RH hole whips right around into DCA/BWI! That's been there... it's been discussed that there will be some dry air ahead of the precip, and the hole fills in around 6z on the link you provided just as it has been forecast to do. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 28.4 just north of Westminster. 27* at 140 & 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My station had been at 29.3 all day, it has now gone up in just the last hour to 32.9. Going off of your location on the map I am about 2 miles to your S. BTW I use your station for my WxUnderground page. I love the Davis Vantage Vue got. It has been very accurate so far and glad I'll get a good year of precip measurements. This will get some afternoon sun in the summer so it will be interesting to see if it adds a few degrees like the Weather Channel system (very cheap) did. Just don't use my wind measurements...my station is too sheltered for accurate wind measurements. I go by the Braddock Heights station or the MDDOT station at 340 & 180 in Jefferson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I love the Davis Vantage Vue got. It has been very accurate so far and glad I'll get a good year of precip measurements. This will get some afternoon sun in the summer so it will be interesting to see if it adds a few degrees like the Weather Channel system (very cheap) did. Just don't use my wind measurements...my station is too sheltered for accurate wind measruements. I go by the Braddock Heights station or the MDDOT station at 340 & 180 in Jefferson. Not much of a temp gradiant here b/w us and up in the mtns. It's 28 up at 1600' too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 crippling ice forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 crippling ice forecast I know you are trolling, but that product is not very useful. Check it again in an hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 I know you are trolling, but that product is not very useful. Check it again in an hour... it must be somewhat useful or they would not tell people to look at it on facebook. i know it does change frequently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Just to make sure that I am thinking correctly Here's an ob: the low off the maine coast is analyzed 3-4mb deeper than progged on the NAM at 15z. Excellent. That means that the H will take a lil longer to move out and the CAD may be a bit stronger than modeled, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Just to make sure that I am thinking correctly That means that the H will take a lil longer to move out and the CAD may be a bit stronger than modeled, correct? I asked him to get clarification, but thats where I was taking this, because this system wont have the ability to take the precip north into that high, so yes it is indeed excellent as he says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I love the Davis Vantage Vue got. It has been very accurate so far and glad I'll get a good year of precip measurements. This will get some afternoon sun in the summer so it will be interesting to see if it adds a few degrees like the Weather Channel system (very cheap) did. Just don't use my wind measurements...my station is too sheltered for accurate wind measurements. I go by the Braddock Heights station or the MDDOT station at 340 & 180 in Jefferson. Yea mine is a Lacrosse from LLBean, but wanting to get something better. Going to wait till we get our deck this spring to see where I can put one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm kidding with you, Dr. No Wes. I know, and people have called me that but I don't cling to the other Dr. No (the euro) as often as some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Radar looking pretty good to me right now, things are developing nicely and heading a bit more south I believe than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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