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Model Analysis and Guidance Page


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I'm not sure some of the stuff I like, such as the SPC site SREF means for severe weather are available, although I haven't checked the TornadoVideos.Net related TwisterData site recently. Of course, if they became sole source, they probably start charging for it.

What are the specific needs of weather enthusiasts to access this sort of data anyway? Basically to have discussions on wx forums and such. It's not like they need to get a forecast,watch or warning out. It's a hobby...and it should be enjoyed that way. I never look at the NCEP model pages...they're too canned. If I want to view model data at home I'll fire up WINGRIDDS or Bufkit, etc.

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What are the specific needs of weather enthusiasts to access this sort of data anyway? Basically to have discussions on wx forums and such. It's not like they need to get a forecast,watch or warning out. It's a hobby...and it should be enjoyed that way. I never look at the NCEP model pages...they're too canned. If I want to view model data at home I'll fire up WINGRIDDS or Bufkit, etc.

What would be the point of the weather forums if it was just the amateurs asking "How much snow for Philly".

BTW, the models sites allowed me to post on the local KHOU forum, run by Steve, best admin ever, that the Day 3 SWODY that covered yesterday was wrong in not having the 5% risk area extend locally, and we did indeed have confirmed damaging tornadoes and hail, and it wasn't weenie wishcasting, it was an average John Doe citizen intently studying models, which anyone can do, since we can see them. Granted, other than the SPC site, most severe weather forecasting can be done via Utah.edu, the e-Wall and the NIU forecast skew-T generator.

Besides patting myself on the back so hard I pull a muscle, note that weather forum enthusiasts can do useful severe weather forecasting on Day 3, when the SPC SWO doesn't update. BTW, if anything, I wasn't optimistic enough...

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1095&start=270#p30135

Fun site: http://weather.admin.../fcstsound.html NAM suggests maybe enough instability early Monday in the coastal cities SW of Houston for maybe a tornado' date=' GFS has a bit less low level istability, but maybe a tad happier mid level isnatbility, with some speed and directional shear over the unstable interval. [b']Locally, outside the Day 3 See Text 5% probability area, but I could see tomorrow's Day 2 area maybe including 59 and coastward South of Houston.[/b]

May I also recommend the Utah U model site, especially the convective diagnostic. http://weather.utah.edu/ GFS hasn't updated on the site yet, still the 6am run, but the NAM has. The CAPE is MUCAPE, which can be misleading if one is only in it for the tornadoes, but in a situation where Houston will probably have slightly elevated storms, that is a helpful thing, and the 700-400 mb average lapse rates are also quite useful, ditto the deep layer shear.

Condensed version- a tornado or two possible along the immediate coast, maybe, not a huge outbreak, and while extreme low level instability is weak, there could be enough instability for a slightly elevated supercell, but probably not quite severe hail or wind. Would need a bit more mid level instability or a bit lower (~700 mb) freezing level for anything actually meeting severe criteria locally, IMHO.

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What would be the point of the weather forums if it was just the amateurs asking "How much snow for Philly".

I'm not saying that's what folks on wx forums do. They have good wx discussions for the most part, and like I said there are enough sites and software available these days to meet their informational needs.

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From their FAQ Document:

"If you experience problems while using the Model Analysis and Guidance web site, please let us know. We test as much as possible, but it is not possible to test every operation on every browser and every Operating System. If you experience a re-occurring problem, please try to send us as much detail as possible surrounding the problem, what exactly happened, and the steps to reproduce the problem. We will try to address the issue or acknowledge its existence in this section."

Send them specific, detailed, constructive comments using either:

http://mag.ncep.noaa...ter/index.shtml

or

email: [email protected]

They've responded to folks in the past and I get the impression that they are genuinely interested in improving the page....

Going to be respectful here because I appreciate your presence here but this......whoa....I work in technology at PSU including web development and while this is true, it's certainly possible to test most of the OS's and the 5-6 most common browsers and that would hit at least 95% of all users. Were there any user tests done; as in, actual people browsing the site and offering feedback?

The other thing, and this is something we wrestle with in web development, you need a mobile friendly option. Of course, that very well may be something you are working on.

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Going to be respectful here because I appreciate your presence here but this......whoa....I work in technology at PSU including web development and while this is true, it's certainly possible to test most of the OS's and the 5-6 most common browsers and that would hit at least 95% of all users. Were there any user tests done; as in, actual people browsing the site and offering feedback?

The other thing, and this is something we wrestle with in web development, you need a mobile friendly option. Of course, that very well may be something you are working on.

I don't work on the site, I'm not directly affiliated with it, nor do I work in tech/web development. So, take my comments for what they are worth on the topic: not much [edit to add, my quote regarding the testing on various operating systems was directly from their FAQ document, not my words].

What you say makes sense though. I know there was testing done (I don't know how much or by whom). I also know that the transition from the MAF to the MAG was well advertised (and in fact delayed). There was quite a long period where feedback was solicited (internally and externally). I get the impression that a lot of people just continued to use the old site without offering feedback during this period prior to the actual transition. It's entirely possible that they were inundated with requests to simply keep the old page (I don't know, I'm not part of that team nor privy to that information) and they chose to simply ignore it (however, this would be counter to how NCEP typically deals with things of this nature).

Your point about mobile-friendly options is well taken, and this is something NWS in general is grappling with.

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I don't work on the site, I'm not directly affiliated with it, nor do I work in tech/web development. So, take my comments for what they are worth on the topic: not much [edit to add, my quote regarding the testing on various operating systems was directly from their FAQ document, not my words].

What you say makes sense though. I know there was testing done (I don't know how much or by whom). I also know that the transition from the MAF to the MAG was well advertised (and in fact delayed). There was quite a long period where feedback was solicited (internally and externally). I get the impression that a lot of people just continued to use the old site without offering feedback during this period prior to the actual transition. It's entirely possible that they were inundated with requests to simply keep the old page (I don't know, I'm not part of that team nor privy to that information) and they chose to simply ignore it (however, this would be counter to how NCEP typically deals with things of this nature).

Your point about mobile-friendly options is well taken, and this is something NWS in general is grappling with.

Thanks for your reply, appreciate it.

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On a separate matter, the Re-Analysis sites have had a hardware issue. The estimate is that the hardware issue will be fixed on January 11.

Was disappointed when I saw this...sounds like it could be a pretty serious issue. The re-analysis sites have been working fantastic lately after having some issues off and on the past few years. Was going to work on something but have to wait until they are up and running.

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I don't work on the site, I'm not directly affiliated with it, nor do I work in tech/web development. So, take my comments for what they are worth on the topic: not much [edit to add, my quote regarding the testing on various operating systems was directly from their FAQ document, not my words].

What you say makes sense though. I know there was testing done (I don't know how much or by whom). I also know that the transition from the MAF to the MAG was well advertised (and in fact delayed). There was quite a long period where feedback was solicited (internally and externally). I get the impression that a lot of people just continued to use the old site without offering feedback during this period prior to the actual transition. It's entirely possible that they were inundated with requests to simply keep the old page (I don't know, I'm not part of that team nor privy to that information) and they chose to simply ignore it (however, this would be counter to how NCEP typically deals with things of this nature).

Your point about mobile-friendly options is well taken, and this is something NWS in general is grappling with.

I think you're right about the bolded. The MAG was in parallel with the MAF for months and asked clearly for input. I didn't work directly on the site but am at NCO and didn't hear much about user feedback, though like you I may not have been privvy to it.

Slowness is a fairly easy problem to fix, by throwing more resources at it. The wrong images thing...that should be easy too by fixing the glitches. I'd suggest (again) to email them with a professional description of the issue and the screen grabs help too. Just emailing a flaming email without detail isn't of much help. I know these people and they take their jobs seriously so I can assure everyone that they are listening and trying to improve things.

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I think you're right about the bolded. The MAG was in parallel with the MAF for months and asked clearly for input. I didn't work directly on the site but am at NCO and didn't hear much about user feedback, though like you I may not have been privvy to it.

Slowness is a fairly easy problem to fix, by throwing more resources at it. The wrong images thing...that should be easy too by fixing the glitches. I'd suggest (again) to email them with a professional description of the issue and the screen grabs help too. Just emailing a flaming email without detail isn't of much help. I know these people and they take their jobs seriously so I can assure everyone that they are listening and trying to improve things.

This is exactly what I did, however, I did not include screen grabs. I tried to be as detailed as possible though with my email.

All the nasty comments are not going to accomplish anything. I hope the others in this thread who have expressed themselves took the time to send an email (and hopefully in a professional manner) and detailed the issues they have been encountering. If they are just going to insult and ridicule in this thread what's the point of that? What is it accomplishing?

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  • 3 weeks later...

It took me like 4 minutes just to load the 135 hour map..and went it loaded 2 images were missing and the other 2 images were duplicates. I really cant believe how those buffoons destroyed this model page. Someone please send this thread to them

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I've noticed some major improvements with all the errors that I had mentioned earlier. It's still not completely perfect but it's been running much more smoothly and the error with the wrong graphics showing up isn't as common. All in all much better!

even during the actual model run? Like right now? Its fine 2 hours after the model run is done...when there is no traffic.

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even during the actual model run? Like right now? Its fine 2 hours after the model run is done...when there is no traffic.

Actually right now the lag is incredible slow.

It is highly frustrating experiencing these errors which have been going on since the link was in testing but the insults being posted on here are just completely unnecessary.

I really do love the new layout but there is no way there should be lags like this...it's literally taking 2-3 minutes to load a panel. I just can't imagine these issues being all that hard to fix.

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Actually right now the lag is incredible slow.

It is highly frustrating experiencing these errors which have been going on since the link was in testing but the insults being posted on here are just completely unnecessary.

I really do love the new layout but there is no way there should be lags like this...it's literally taking 2-3 minutes to load a panel. I just can't imagine these issues being all that hard to fix.

Especially when apps like Instant Weather Maps Pro and sites like Dacula Weather load the panels in less than a second apiece... something's very fishy on NOAA's web pages.

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  • 8 months later...

The NCEP page is terribly designed, I haven't used it in months. Stick with Ewall or Instant Weather Maps if you're looking for the same models/parameters, or paid sites like Stormvista or Accuweather Pro if you want more.

Additional Planned Updates – Anticipated deployment late 2012

• Infrastructure –

o Update GEMPAK

• RTOFS Products (Model Implementation Dependent)

o Surface Parameters for HIRES Window (Model Implementation Dependent)

• Reorganize RTMA areas

o Create smaller areas for finer details

o Create large consolidated areas (CONUS to Regional) for overall view

• Change site navigation color scheme

o Provide more page balance and higher contrast selection menus

o Ensure choices are apparent – page flow is logical & intuitive

• Provide progress status indication – allow users to see progress of product creation

during cycles

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Tonight's 18z NAM run only showed 7 frames on the NCEP site for the 850mb temp/precip/MSLP parameter, and interestingly has a different number of frames showing up for different parameters (more frames for the 500mb heights/vorts, and one less frame for 300mb winds). A typical NAM run has 29 frames. Strange how these problems have only been happening with the 18z NAM and GFS runs...

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Tonight's 18z NAM run only showed 7 frames on the NCEP site for the 850mb temp/precip/MSLP parameter, and interestingly has a different number of frames showing up for different parameters (more frames for the 500mb heights/vorts, and one less frame for 300mb winds). A typical NAM run has 29 frames. Strange how these problems have only been happening with the 18z NAM and GFS runs...

lol

post-4-0-77976000-1349649441_thumb.jpg

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