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Sunday - January 8, 2012 - What storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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There must be a few weenie members in there because the ensembles are colder, but I would naturally expect them to be a little less amped up then the op.

Edit: the op run is basically the warmest, but I've seen that before. I wouldn't read into it yet, being this far out.

Yeah, that's a normal "stable" situation. If the ensemble mean temps matched the op, that would be a red flag for a warming trend.

We'll see what happens. Has my interest for sure. Ten more runs of the Euro to go! lol

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Yeah, that's a normal "stable" situation. If the ensemble mean temps matched the op, that would be a red flag for a warming trend.

We'll see what happens. Has my interest for sure. Ten more runs of the Euro to go! lol

See to me, if I see the mass fields match the op, but the ensemble is colder...that's a red flag to me that the ensembles might be too cold. We saw that last year in February when the ensembles had the 540 line well to the south, but showed some storms cutting across New England. You know that won't happen. I'm sure there are different instances for different situations, but something I've noticed.

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See to me, if I see the mass fields match the op, but the ensemble is colder...that's a red flag to me that the ensembles might be too cold. We saw that last year in February when the ensembles had the 540 line well to the south, but showed some storms cutting across New England. You know that won't happen. I'm sure there are different instances for different situations, but something I've noticed.

Yeah, absolutely. I was talking about using the ensembles more just as a check for the operational run. I don't really care as much about the verbatim ensemble mean.

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Tip is right for areas like FIT, actually a sweet track for the CNE non CP folks, but one run syndrome. Would not be surprised at all if this stays a CC canal cutter with WCT WMASS and the usuals doing well. Congrats Dendrite.

We don't accept congratulations outside of 12 hours anymore up here. I think I might be speaking for Brian Jeff and Eric.

But thanks for the thought....

Congrats Toronto Blizzard!

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Tip on the AFD desk this afternoon?

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS

AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.

LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

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We don't accept congratulations outside of 12 hours anymore up here. I think I might be speaking for Brian Jeff and Eric.

But thanks for the thought....

Congrats Toronto Blizzard!

That goes double for me, as the warmer air is always closer to me being further south than you all by a good amount. Our NWS afd has some pretty nice wording for this potential storm:

BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND BRING SOME SNOW TO OUR AREA. GFS SOLUTION ONLY PROVIDES A COUPLE OF INCHES... WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW. THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE TWO IN BOTH PRODUCING A COASTAL LOW WITHIN 100 MILES OR SO OF EACH OTHER IS VERY GOOD CONSIDERING THIS IS DAY 6 OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOME SNOW MAY FALL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BUT THERE IS ROOM TO GO UP MORE IF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IMPROVES.

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man, what I'd do to get that 240 hr Euro solution UNDER Long Island.... That would be a donut stuffing machine solution if that ever happened.

I take it your talking about Homer in hell right? Are you thinking long duration or copius amounts of snow solution? Or both?

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I take it your talking about Homer in hell right? Are you thinking long duration or copius amounts of snow solution? Or both?

"Stop picking at it Homie" -

"But Marg - I'm so sweet and tasty!"

It's completely imaginative, but that kind of negatively tilted full latitude trough involvement with a cutting core would be historic with ease if it did that, but under LI.

I'm not thinking anything though...

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watch us end with the snowiest winter ever recorded... like 50" this month, 78" next month, and 49" in March.

ahahahahhahahha

Well hey, let's see...

For Concord, NH the record is 122"

They're at 26.3" now ... if you think about it, if you ignore the abomination of a December, and just look at the end of the year as a whole, we're going into January above normal on the season so far!!!!!

So give 20" to January, 40" to February, 30" to March, and 10" to April ... BOOM. Record. ;)

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Bullseye 5 days out = :bag:

Euro can be decent for east coast storms 5 days out...at least the general idea. Not this year so far though obviously haha.

it could be all over by this time tomorrow as you know too well.....or perhaps it'll be over by 1am. This is a Saturday event?

Euro had a late morning/ noon Sunday to wee hours of Monday morning event.

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"Stop picking at it Homie" -

"But Marg - I'm so sweet and tasty!"

It's completely imaginative, but that kind of negatively tilted full latitude trough involvement with a cutting core would be historic with ease if it did that, but under LI.

I'm not thinking anything though...

Yeah, that show is awesome, OT though so we digress.

I got a chance to look at it too, so I see why you said UNDER long island. But anyways I wasn't trying to infer you were making a 240hr call lol.

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Well hey, let's see...

For Concord, NH the record is 122"

They're at 26.3" now ... if you think about it, if you ignore the abomination of a December, and just look at the end of the year as a whole, we're going into January above normal on the season so far!!!!!

So give 20" to January, 40" to February, 30" to March, and 10" to April ... BOOM. Record. ;)

Totally doable, I'm just a couple miles out of concord and snowfall to date is at 29.2 so I could even pull a 36.9 in Feb and still make the record. :lmao:

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At this point I'm not expecting anything from this system given the time frame and uncertainty in the pattern...no real room for error. But if it can stay interesting on guidance for the another 24-36 hours, then I think it becomes a legit threat to track.

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Verbatim the 12Z Euro is a great hit for Berks, Monads, and S VT. Looks like the low really goes to town over SE MA and death bands us for several hours Sunday afternoon with +SN. Too bad it's 5 days out in light of the trends this winter...

It's bound to happen sooner or later. lol

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6-12 lollies to 18 for all

THIS IS THE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WHERE THE MOST TWEAKS WERE

MADE. 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW TRACKING CLOSER OR JUST INSIDE

THE BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W. THINK IT BEST TO MENTION AT LEAST A CHANCE

OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MANY

DETAILS YET TO BE WORKED OUT.

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