Riptide Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 First DC special of the winter? Like Kmlwx said, NWS isn't very "gung-ho" about it. I was surprised at the amount of clouds around, it seems there is sufficient moisture for a something more than flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Some half decent potential tonight. Wouldn't be surprised to see numerous reports of .5-1" with exception of 2-4" reports coming from the Westminster area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 That's what you think Just kidding. - Getting a little OT here but I was driving during one of the snow showers yesterday and 3 or 4 fire trucks/ambulances were coming down the road and some woman pulls right out in front of them (she definitely saw and heard them) and gets clipped by a fire truck. She leaned on the horn and gave the fire fighters the finger...............people these days. Yeah, that woman is a moron and gives the rest of us female drivers bad reps. Anyways, re: the roads... the hubby had told me to avoid a road that we usually take to get home as he was on it and it was a sheet of ice. And that was only from a half inch of snow that came in a squall that lasted roughly 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 True, but I don't consider myself a horrible driver and I hit some slicks spots that caused my car to skid. I fished a bit when I was on 70 yesterday...it definitely was slick...I saw several people spun out on the side of the road...I think people just drive too close to each other and then slam on the brakes and any type of slick will cause an accident....so yes...bad driviers...and people not aware of the changing weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I fished a bit when I was on 70 yesterday...it definitely was slick...I saw several people spun out on the side of the road...I think people just drive too close to each other and then slam on the brakes and any type of slick will cause an accident....so yes...bad driviers...and people not aware of the changing weather. Agreed - that was what happened to me. I had four new tires put on last week and figured I'd be fine, but my car is very light, so even with new tires, the first time I tried to hit the brakes suddenly... I slid. I was more careful after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i like the second vort best... so we might all sleep through whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i like the second vort best... so we might all sleep through whatever happens. What time is the second vort supposed to come through?, around 3 am correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 i like the second vort best... so we might all sleep through whatever happens. Timing on that vort might cause Fauquier Schools to close for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Too early to weenie radar halluncinate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 What time is the second vort supposed to come through?, around 3 am correct. after 2z (1a) it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Too early to weenie radar halluncinate? you gotta squint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 First DC special of the winter? Like Kmlwx said, NWS isn't very "gung-ho" about it. I was surprised at the amount of clouds around, it seems there is sufficient moisture for a something more than flurries. It is dry, the dewpoint is around 5F which is quite a bit lower than the temps so the RH is low. The models show uvv but little in the way of QPF which is probably the reason the NWS is being so conservative. The only forcing is from differential vorticity advection since there is no real surface low involved and the temperature advection looks to be pretty neutral with the winds having some westerly component. I'd go with flurries. that doesn't mean someone won't see enough snow to get minor accumulations but this is hardly a classic snowstorm 500h and surface and I suspect most people will not see anything more than a dusting if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 you gotta squint Changeover in MO so we are screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It is dry, the dewpoint is around 5F which is quite a bit lower than the temps so the RH is low. The models show uvv but little in the way of QPF which is probably the reason the NWS is being so conservative. The only forcing is from differential vorticity advection since there is no real surface low involved and the temperature advection looks to be pretty neutral with the winds having some westerly component. I'd go with flurries. that doesn't mean someone won't see enough snow to get minor accumulations but this is hardly a classic snowstorm 500h and surface and I suspect most people will not see anything more than a dusting if that. 50:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 i like the second vort best... so we might all sleep through whatever happens. Is this the one currently near the arrowhead of MN? Models (nam) seem to weaken the first and strenghten the second as they approach. If I am seeing everything properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 50:1 ratios? more like odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It is dry, the dewpoint is around 5F which is quite a bit lower than the temps so the RH is low. The models show uvv but little in the way of QPF which is probably the reason the NWS is being so conservative. The only forcing is from differential vorticity advection since there is no real surface low involved and the temperature advection looks to be pretty neutral with the winds having some westerly component. I'd go with flurries. that doesn't mean someone won't see enough snow to get minor accumulations but this is hardly a classic snowstorm 500h and surface and I suspect most people will not see anything more than a dusting if that. nam brings the dew points into the 20s by midnightish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 nam brings the dew points into the 20s by midnightish. I think Wes just made me die a little inside - Though I'm glad he was more optimistic on the long term in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 nam brings the dew points into the 20s by midnightish. That's probably because the precip is falling aloft causing it to rise. Were else is it getting the moisture from unless as it comes across the lakes and dives towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It is dry, the dewpoint is around 5F which is quite a bit lower than the temps so the RH is low. The models show uvv but little in the way of QPF which is probably the reason the NWS is being so conservative. The only forcing is from differential vorticity advection since there is no real surface low involved and the temperature advection looks to be pretty neutral with the winds having some westerly component. I'd go with flurries. that doesn't mean someone won't see enough snow to get minor accumulations but this is hardly a classic snowstorm 500h and surface and I suspect most people will not see anything more than a dusting if that. Nobody should get any major accum from this, DC could be in one of the most profitable areas. These shortwaves can change when they get east of the mountains, it will be interesting if some location gets more than a trace. Even in this winter, a DC Special is flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 That's probably because the precip is falling aloft causing it to rise. Were else is it getting the moisture from unless as it comes across the lakes and dives towards us. i dunno it brings it up all day slowly.. we do have a south wind and it has been coming up from negatives to near 10 now. i mean i dont think it will be anything special either but i could see more than flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Is this the one currently near the arrowhead of MN? yeah that should be the leading edge of the second vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I think Wes just made me die a little inside - Though I'm glad he was more optimistic on the long term in the other thread. wes only likes big events.. im just looking to whipe out the DCA shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 That's probably because the precip is falling aloft causing it to rise. Were else is it getting the moisture from unless as it comes across the lakes and dives towards us. Would the precip (virga) from the first sw help to raise the dp's for the second? Also, our dp in Winchester is 14, and is quite a bit higher than all other stations. Is that due to snow on the ground? I know that sounds dumb. Seems very logical that it would be that way, but my "simple" thoughts often turn out to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 wes only likes big events.. im just looking to whipe out the DCA shutout. Does a trace count, or does it have to be at least 0.1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Does a trace count, or does it have to be at least 0.1? We've already had a trace. 0.1" it is! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Two days in Jan '11 were also 17 for the low, the 22nd and 24th (commutaggedon was the 26th). good chance it will be the lowest of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 good chance it will be the lowest of the season you think? just playing the odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Would the precip (virga) from the first sw help to raise the dp's for the second? Also, our dp in Winchester is 14, and is quite a bit higher than all other stations. Is that due to snow on the ground? I know that sounds dumb. Seems very logical that it would be that way, but my "simple" thoughts often turn out to be wrong. I bet you it si because of the snow on the ground. As for accumulating snow, it it's less than an inch, it's usually off my radar as alluded to by Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 you think? just playing the odds? I'd say 60-40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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